By Emem Idio

THE tempestuous build up to the December 5, Bayelsa State governorship election indicates that the polls will be a keenly contested affair and might be a two horse race between the incumbent governor and candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP, Hon Seriake Dickson and former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva of the All Progressives Congress, APC. Beyond the popularity of the candidates, their parties and sentiments, other factors that will affect the voting pattern include:

The ‘Ijaw’ factor

Sylva: APC leader and Dickson: Bayelsa State governor

Bayelsa State may pride itself as the only homogeneous Ijaw state, however, some parts of the state are regarded as ‘more Ijaw’ than others. Those that pride themselves as the ‘core Ijaw’ includes Kokokuma/Opokuma, Southern- Ijaw, Ekeremor, Sagbama and parts of Yenagoa Local Government, while Nembe, Brass, Ogbia and parts of Yenagoa Local Government are labelled ‘non-core Ijaw.’

The ‘core- Ijaw’ are in the majority. Politicians indeed have a way of dividing the people and whipping up sentiments to curry favour. The ‘core and non -core Ijaw’ crept into the political lexicon of Bayelsa state during the administration of Timipre Sylva when some politicians, who were opposed to his emergence as governor started whipping up tribal sentiment that he was not from the ‘core-Ijaw’ stock, although he is from the Nembe speaking Okpoama in Brass Local Council of the state Again, the core and non-core Ijaw sentiment is being freely exploited at the campaigns. Governor Seriake Dickson supporters have been using the ‘Ijawness’ of their candidate to appeal to the electorates to garner their support.

The Jonathan and PDP factor

Former President Goodluck Jonathan by all indication still remains a highly revered political leader in the state and well loved by the people. His shocking defeat in the presidential election is what most Bayelsans are yet to come to terms with. With the presidential defeat hangover still fresh in the minds of Bayelsans, the governorship election presents an opportunity for the people to vent their consternation with the way and manner their son was defeated.

Many will therefore vote the PDP not because of Dickson but as a payback for the defeat of Jonathan. Those who share this school of thought are of the view that another defeat of the PDP in the state will amount to a second defeat of Jonathan, a case of once bitten twice shy. This explains why most PDP chieftains and political leader in the state are insinuating that the December election is not about Dickson but about Ijaw people.

The outcry by the state chapter of the APC following Jonathan and his wife’s endorsement of Governor Dickson underscores the relevance of the former first family in the political dynamics of the state. The APC may have captured power at the federal level but the PDP still remains a formidable party in Bayelsa State. However, APC, it is believed, will make a good impression at the polls, but it may take another four years for them to make political inroads to Creek Haven, the state seat of power.

Performance

Governor Seriake Dickson is adjudged to have performed in the area of critical infrastructure development. Peradventure he leaves power on February 14, 2016, his imprimatur will stand the test of time. The Dickson Administration has built bridges to link rural communities, embarked on urban expansion and renewal, in addition to the construction and renovation of schools, health facilities and rural electrification.

Governor Dickson was in such a hurry to develop the state, a situation that prompted him to embark on huge capital intensive projects including the state airport, sea port and roads, housing estates, state polytechnic and ring roads. With the paucity of funds from the federal, these projects have been abandoned momentarily.

For the first time in the history of the state, projects are been cited in almost every community in the state. Also for the first time in the state, the governor had introduced free and compulsory education to the secondary level, with free books and school uniforms. The governor has appointed over four hundred aides, all drawing salaries from the state government purse.

If Bayelsans were to cast their votes on the basis of performance, Dickson would have gotten it, but the complaint is that the governor is not paying as much attention to stomach ‘infrastructure’. The governor has also been criticized for not giving more jobs to indigenous contractors, but the governor has said he does not want to compromise on the quality of jobs. Dickson has been banking on his performance, but who knows, the electorates might be looking for something.