• Says no anti-power rotation candidate has won   presidency since 1999

•‘Stars lining up for Tinubu’

By Festus Ahon

Mr Godwin Anaughe is a staunch  member of the All Progressives  Congress, APC, in Delta State and Special Adviser to the Deputy President of the Senate on Special Duties, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege. Anaughe is also the Director, Strategy and Elections, Delta State APC Campaign Council. The communication strategist speaks, in this interview, on the Buhari administration and the 2023 presidential election. Excerpts:

What’s your assessment of President Muhammadu Buhari’s government in terms of security, economy and infrastructural development?

Read Also: I’ll beat Atiku, Tinubu landslide, Kola Abiola boasts

There is no doubt that so many Nigerians are hurting and so many families are struggling at this time due to rising cost of living, a development that is not peculiar to Nigeria.

It is a global problem arising mainly from a series of negative global developments, from the devastating impact of Covid-19 to the economic sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and the attendant subsisting supply-chain disruptions across the globe.

However, it is important that we give credit where credit is due. President Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress, APC, have done far more to secure the country, strengthen the economy and build infrastructure than all previous Peoples Democratic Party administrations put together.

We have heard a lot of talk by opposition elements of how the President and the APC have mismanaged the economy, how the security situation has worsened, how the exchange rate has fallen and how the debt burden has risen exponentially.But what they will not say is that in 2015 when Buhari came to power, organised crime, terror and insurgency had taken root in Nigeria, that the economy was seriously damaged, that under PDP’s 16 years of misrule, the naira lost more value than in the last seven years.

Further, that given the mess the PDP left behind, there is no quick and cheap solution, leaving government no option than to borrow to fund desperately needed infrastructure investment. You will recall that Boko Haram held territories the size of Belgium, across towns and villages in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states, waging spectacular attacks in these areas and the Federal Capital Territory.

The terrorist group was operating freely in twelve states and even declared a caliphate in Gwoza. The truth is that had President Muhammadu Buhari not acted decisively, perhaps Boko Haram would have overrun Nigeria and declared an Islamic State as ISIS did in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Today Boko Haram holds no territory in Nigeria. And unlike prior to 2015, when the PDP government diverted funds for security to party and personal use, the Buhari administration is tackling insecurity with greater commitment, resolve and funding.

What about the economy and infrastructure?

The economy was in a free fall due to falling crude oil prices when President Buhari took over office in May 2015. It eventually went into recession in the second quarter of 2016 due to falling crude oil prices and renewed restiveness in the Niger Delta, as the falling annual real GDP growth that began in 2013 spiraled into negative territory.

Buhari stopped the slide into depression in the second quarter of 2018, after five consecutive quarters of negative growth and put the economy on the path to recovery. Unfortunately, again in 2019, Nigeria slide into its worst economic recession in over three decades, with a contraction of 3.62 percent in the third quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic that affected every country of the world. But this time, Nigeria exited the recession earlier than expected in the next quarter due to growth in non-oil sector; taken holistically, as government policy to make this sector the main growth sector began to yield results.

Since then, the Nigerian economy has continued on a positive trajectory, growing for the seventh consecutive quarter, even though foreign exchange earnings have lagged behind for most period. According to the recent GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.54% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2022.

This is a testament to the fact that the Nigerian economy is performing very well in a number of respects right now, especially agriculture. In the area of infrastructure development, the Buhari administration has continued to prioritise long term infrastructure spending to catalyze rapid economic development. This has made it possible for the government to complete long-abandoned projects such as the Lagos-Ibadan, Warri-Itakpe rail network, over 200 dams and Irrigation projects and no fewer than five airports. The Second Niger bridge and the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, abandoned for 16 years by the PDP will be completed this year.

Over 13, 000 kilometers of roads, including bridges are at different stages of completion across the country. Had President Buhari not intervened, Nigeria would have been a failed State in totality like Venezuela, the way PDP was going. Unfortunately, the government is not given the high marks it deserves on its accomplishments.

The perception out there among a large number of Nigerians is that the government is not doing anything and the communication effort from Aso Rock has been uncertain and ineffective for most part to say the least. The government, the APC and presidential campaign need to do a far better job making their case to the Nigerian people.

So why is there still rising economic hardship and poverty in the country if the Buhari government has done so well?

I am not saying that all is now well with the economy. It is still work in progress and we need to do more. The President and the party also know that a lot more need to be done before Nigerians begin to feel the progress we have made so far. Having said that, let me answer your question direct.

The reason for the heightened hardship is that for far too long, we kicked the can down the road, rather than face the economic problems squarely as we are doing now under the leadership of President Buhari.

In 2015, we were at the end of the road, Buhari could not push the can any further and the new administration had to make the hard decisions that needed to be made. So in May 2016, the government increased petrol pump price from N87 per litre to N145 and allowed the naira to float freely in June to help kick-start the economy, causing the exchange rate to rise from N199 to N290 to the dollar. The new government spent a huge political capital just to keep the economy afloat, and of course Buhari began to lose the goodwill of the people, a trend that continues till date as the government continues to turn the economy around.

Today petrol sells for N185 per litre and the dollar sell for N430 officially. Rising prices of petrol and the dollar are largely responsible for higher cost of living and economic hardship in the country. There was no option for the government then and there is still none now. This is the dilemma facing the country.

The prices of petrol and dollar must go up to curb importation, encourage local production and solve the unemployment problem, which is currently fueling insecurity in the country. The price of electricity must also go up to encourage more private sector investment in this important sector if we are to achieve 24-hour electricity in Nigeria.

In essence, what I am saying is that though APC has not totally cleared the mess it inherited, it is no reason to overlook the progress that has been made and replace it with those who created the mess we are cleaning up and risk everything that has been achieved.

What do you think are the chances of your party in the forthcoming general elections, especially with the threat being posed by Labour Party and the PDP?

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has a very good chance of winning the 2023 presidential election. Indeed, when you filter out most of the noise, you will realise that Tinubu is the only one in the race with a clear path to Aso Rock Villa and his path is looking prohibitive for both Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Peter Obi.

On the other hand, Atiku’s path has narrowed significantly as his running mate in 2019, Peter Obi has taken over a huge chunk of his voters in 2019 and forced Atiku to play defense in PDP strongholds once thought safe.

Indeed, South-East and South-South are arguably the single most important voting bloc inside the Peoples Democratic Party. Atiku won 18 states in 2019, 11 of which are from South-South and South-East.

Except Bayelsa and Edo State, he won these states in a landslide. For Atiku to find a path to the presidency he would need to expand his 2019 coalition. This requires him to win South-East and South-South geopolitical zones and two other zones.

As for Peter Obi, he has introduced something new into our politics and that is the power of messaging which he has used effectively to awaken the interest of youths in politics. This has completely changed politics in Nigeria. He deserves commendation.

However, victory for Obi is not far from impossible. Although he has gained momentum, his support is largely localized in the South East where he hails from and to a lesser extent in the South-South. So, clearly, the stars are lining up for Tinubu and the APC. Like I said earlier, all that the party needs to do to maintain its grip on the race is for the party to communicate effectively with the voters that would enable it recreate the Buhari coalition.

You seem to have written off the chances of Atiku. Don’t you think this is premature and why do you think the North will not vote for their own as they did in 2015 when they massively voted for Buhari?

Atiku’s imminent loss is predicated on two factors that he has no control over. So, it is not premature to conclude that he will lose. Firstly, Atiku cannot change the fact that his candidacy has deeply polarized the PDP, as was the case in 2015 when nPDP left the party.

Now Wike and his camp have withdrawn from the presidential team and there is no indication that they will have a change of mind, except of course Ayu resigns.

Secondly, no anti-power rotation candidate has won the presidency since 1999. It is for this reason, more than anything else that caused President Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. Now to the second part of your question, historically, Nigerians have identified with their own and supported the party that fields candidates that are from their region, but not when the unity of this country is at stake.

In 2023, the unity of this country will be on the ballot. It will be the number one issue on the minds of voters because another Northern President, after eight years of President Buhari, would cause an outrageous instability that could easily snowball into a crisis this country has not seen since the civil war.

The PDP lost the 2023 presidential election the day it nominated Atiku. Wike and his group want Ayu to resign for a Southern Chairman so they can control the party after Atiku loses the election and ceases to be the leader of the party. The same is true with Ayu backers who are insisting that Ayu should not resign.

Are you not concerned about the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of your party, the APC, given the religious make up of Nigeria?

Tinubu’s choice of a Muslim as his running mate did not surprise me a bit because being a southern Muslim, picking a Muslim running mate was a fait accompli. Doing otherwise would have doomed the ticket and, by now, PDP which, in breach of its constitution and the existing power rotation arrangement in practice since 1999, erroneously nominated another Northerner, after eight years of Buhari presidency, would have been drinking champagne.

It was a bold decision by Tinubu and Nigerians should applaud him for showing courage when faced with a very hard choice. By this singular act, Nigerians should be assured that, in Tinubu, they would have a courageous President who would make the tough decisions that are required to build on the strong foundation Buhari has laid and further grow the economy, secure our country and reduce poverty.

Come to think of it, if Christians would not vote for Tinubu because of a Muslim running mate, is it Atiku, a Northern Muslim presidential candidate they will vote for after eight years of Buhari presidency? Clearly, PDP is no better option for Christians who are not happy with the single religion ticket of APC. Chief M.K.O Abiola faced the same situation in 1993 and he also chose a fellow Muslim, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, as his running mate, and, eventually, won the election.

My candid advice to my fellow Christians is that in as much as it would have been better to have a religiously balanced progressive ticket, APC remains the better option.