By Sunny Ikhioya

WRITING these days in the midst of passionate electioneering is becoming a challenge. There is no stand you take that will not generate reactions of bias in favour of one party or the other. It is a difficult position to be neutral. According to John Adams:”In politics, the middle way is none at all”.

That is the challenge that I face as I attempt to do an analysis of the recent INEC’s postponement of the 2015 elections from the February 14 to March 28th and April 11 for the presidential and governorship respectively. The postponement did not affect the politicians alone, but, every Nigerian, especially those whose business(es) have been at stand still these past few months because of the activities of the politicians and cannot wait to return to their normal activities. Unfortunately, this will have to wait for another six weeks.

The protesters at the INEC headquarters

We shall attempt to answer the following questions: Is it possible to have a free and credible election in the geographical space of Nigeria as it is today? Would INEC be able to conduct the elections independent of the input of the security organisations? If the elections take place and it resulted in the death of so many people like it did in 2011, who will be held responsible ? Will the parties calling for elections to be held now, be able to provide security for the INEC and its ad hoc staff if INEC chose to go ahead with the exercise without government’s security?

Who stands to gain in the whole arrangement? Can we in all honesty,claim that the PVCs have been equitably and adequately distributed across the length and breadth of the country including the war ravaged states? Is the election to build on our democracy or a do or die, winner takes all war? If the opposition is in the position of President Goodluck Jonathan, will they go ahead with the elections with the present state of affairs in the country? Which is in the overall interest of the country, going ahead with the elections, which is surely bound to be defective or, postpone it forward by a few weeks? Does the postponement agree with the laws of Nigeria as contained in our constitution? Will INEC benefit from the postponement in terms of better and adequate preparations? These are the issues.

For me, the announcement did not come as a surprise. If you have been following this page, I have always wondered how free and fair elections can be conducted in the war ravaged areas of the north east, as only a peaceful atmosphere will benefit all in the conduct of elections but other opinions have since scoffed at this suggestion. Some politicians and elders even went to the extent of demanding that elections must be conducted in these areas? I have also maintained that we needed the co-operation of all, including neighbouring countries; we can see the success been recorded now with the full involvement of the Chadian, Nigerien and Camerounian troops. It does not take rocket science to understand this, but our politicians have chosen to play politics with it, now the whole thing has come back to haunt us, no exception.

INEC chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega said in his statement that, without the assistance of security agencie, INEC cannot conduct any free and fair elections. If the security says it is not safe, then it is not safe, nobody should argue with that, unless there are superior and better alternative which has to be put in the public domain.

There is no law that is promulgated in this country that does not favour a few or more individuals, like the import/ ban of some essential commodities, the new vehicle registration licensing, power holding fixed charges and so on. This one will certainly favour some parties, In this instance, I dare say the PDP stands to benefit more, as the APC seems ahead of all other parties in the campaigns, six weeks is a long time to do some catching up- remember the Obama and Rumsefeld US debates. But, can we say, because it will favour the PDP, we should discard the overall national interest and allow lives to be wasted unnecessarily?

The election is to build on our democracy, under a peaceful environment, therefore, it supersedes any individual or party interest. The international community must do well to understand our peculiar circumstances. Thus, the statement released from the US embassy is unacceptable. The US government cannot love this nation more.

No credible and fair election can take place under an environment of war, such as it is in the Boko Haram ravaged areas and the threat of violence from someo geo political zones if their preferred candidates lose the presidential election. Our security agencies must be very well prepared to handle this because it is not as easy as it seems. In fact, I do not envy our security officials. The politicians have totally let them down and exposed them to unnecessary ridicule.

I have talked about the incumbency factor in the past, it is used all over the world, Jonathan will not be a good politician if he refuses to bring it to bear here, considering the barrages he has received from all corners. Even if the action favours the PDP, the APC will do the same if they are in Jonathan’s position, that is the simple truth. They will even do worse, judging from their antecedents in Rivers, Lagos, Edo and other APC controlled states. Incumbency factor cannot be taken lightly and in most cases, it determines the final outcome of an election. I guess that is why the APC wants the centre by all means.

The postponement is for the overall benefit of democracy. It is within the confines of the law as enshrined in our constitution.

We must accept it in good faith as advised by Prof. Jega.

*Mr. Ikhioya, a commentator on national issues, wrote from Lagos.