THEpolitical prognosis for the build up to the Edo State 2016 governorship election promises different scenarios that could be interesting. Of course, the ways and methods of producing an acceptable candidate are unpredictable, especially as it relates to the choice of the most acceptable candidates by the two contending political parties, the All Progressive Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party PDP.

Considering the political and other pedigree of those whose interest in the number one seat are already known and the dynamics they are banking on to produce them as candidates, the political turf of the state promises a colourful scenario.  Even though it is still two years to the election, there is already a palpable undercurrent of concern on who succeeds Governor Adams Oshiomhole.

It is quite sufficient that few months ago, this undercurrent bubbled forth and greatly ruffled the APC in Edo State, when some of its hitherto more prominent members led by the former Secretary to the State Government, SSG, in the Lucky

Igbinedion’s administration, Mr Ize Iyamu and Mr Solomon Edebiri, who was a governorship candidate of the defunct ANPP in the 2012 governorship election in the state, led a considerable number of other members to decamp to the PDP.

They  accused Oshiomhole of manipulating the APC internal political processes to exclude them from the scheme of things, which according to them thwart their governorship ambitions. In a swift reaction though, the APC had accused them of being driven by what it would like to see as the selfish, inordinate ambitions to be governor in 2016.

There is no news yet that both men have shelved their aspirations now they are in the PDP. In fact, their sequel activities would seem to reinforce their interest. So, take it or leave it, that notable  defection by these men and their followers signals the beginning of the internal jostle for the governorship tickets within both the PDP and the APC parties.

Clearly, whichever party is clever enough to choose the right candidate wins the election. The burden for the parties today, therefore, is for them to discern the people’s defined criteria for candidates’ qualification sworn to as the basis for their support.

Because obviously, it will take a whole lot more than mere ambition, a whole lot more than party name, and a whole lot more than playing the ethnic card to win the Edo governorship election in 2016.

This is even more so as both parties will have a highly politically enlightened voters to contend with, not to mention their near frenzied desire to participate in the choice of their candidates.

The voters are still smarting from the political travesty of the past, which hurt internal parties’ democracy and still hurt and haunt them and that had cost the PDP the governorship, and is now costing the APC membership. It is hoped again, that both parties will be discerning enough to realise this in choosing their candidates for the 2016 contest.

However, in this connection, the APC seems to have the worse deal, as things stand today. The party does not seem to have a candidate for now that the PDP would seriously lose sleep over.

The precarious question in APC’s camp is who succeeds Oshiomhole from within? The Comrade himself might not be too eager to answer that question judging from his depleted ranks and the necessary political equation of balance in the State. The few pretenders to the ticket that are
rumoured today in APC just won’t do!

They hardly have influences beyond their immediate constituencies. The 2016 Edo governorship candidate that can win the general election would have to be very widely acceptable to pacify the various partisan groups in and out of the APC that would be critical to winning. They need a candidate that would have strong ties in both parties and would be seen as an acceptable kind of political leveller among these various groups in both parties in the State. The APC may have to do the needful and not the sentimental to get a formidable candidate to
defeat the PDP.

On the other hand, the PDP seems to have a far better deal, if they would exploit their potential and would not be deceived by their primordial practice of wrongful imposition of candidate, by the now highly resented doctrine of godfatherism. As at today, they no doubt have more people indicating interest for the seat than the APC.

Apart from the APC decampers mentioned earlier, there are others like the current Minister of works, Mr Mike Onolemheme, also rumoured to nurse the ambition, and a three time aspirant, Kenneth Imasuagbon, (the Rice man), whose ambition needs no rumour.

Rumour also has it that the PDP power brokers are thinking of anointing a candidate. It is not clear by which arrangement. But PDP political sympathisers would hope strongly that,  Imasuagbon would be that candidate, because clear extant voters’ sentiments and arguments reveal he is the choice of both PDP and non-PDP members alike across the state.

As a frontline political watcher in the state with ears to the ground, I say that without any equivocation. Anyone can carry out an opinion poll analysis and fault me if they can. I insist that, if PDP makes the Rice man their candidate, its chances of winning the election is like Fayose’s to Fayemi’s. Imasuagbon’s impeccable chances have been positively eviscerated by the epochal Ekiti election, which very much hinges rightly or wrongly, on the provision of the now famous, “stomach infrastructure”.

So, if the concept of “stomach infrastructure” has come to mean a bonding with the people’s basic need of food and other provisions, as a definitive assessment of a leader’s sensitivity, Imasuagbon is PDP’s talisman, if they would defeat the incumbent APC government.

Barr Ken or the Rice man as popularly known has bonded forever with the common Edo man on the street, even when he has never held any position in government. His unparallel philanthropic gestures which provide most vital needs like: rice, books, computers, cash prizes, among others for Edo citizens have sealed their love to him forever irrespective of party divide.

One only needs to have observed the frenzy with which Edo people battled for his life in prayers and in service rendering, when he had the road accident, as well as the palpable surge of relief, when they knew their Rice man lived on, to appreciate that the PDP has a talisman for the election. Perhaps inadvertently, Imasuagbon’s popularity rating was tested in the last two thanksgiving services he has conducted in two different senatorial zones in the state.

I am sure even he was overwhelmed by the massive support and followership he enjoys across parties. For obviously, the stomach is not partisan! Onlookers think that it will not be party sagacity to deny such an acceptable aspirant the candidacy. But an even more portentous question would be, how would the PDP power broker pacify the swelling current of near frenzied supporters of Barr Ken, the Rice man within its own party, especially the youths and women who are the greater beneficiaries of his generosity?

It is hardly a simple question for the PDP, I would say, if they fail to give him. The APC might just be ready to benefit by this one. After all, it’s been the politics of relativity: your loss is my gain. Only time would tell!

Christopher Ojeikere, a public affairs analyst, wrote from benin City, Edo State.