By Dele Sobowale

“The climax of every tragedy lies in the deafness of its heroes.”— Albert Camus, 1903-1960, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 90

Three news reports from foreign lands should serve as warnings to the Federal Government of Nigeria, FGN. But, given the track records of governments in the past, and this administration, no lesson will be learnt from what is now happening worldwide. Four economic factors are now threatening widespread violence and political upheaval in many countries — inflation, high fuel prices, national debt and scarcity of foreign currency.

Nigeria experiences all right now. In addition, this country is also reeling under unprecedented insecurity — which is threatening to make large areas ungovernable. One or two more incidents, which can occur at any time, might easily create the sort of violent disturbances being felt elsewhere; which now threaten to topple governments on two continents. We need urgent preemptive measures to save Nigeria from sliding into anarchy. The existence of the country is now at stake.

Tales from abroad

“When your neighbour’s fence is on fire, it becomes your business.”— Horace, 65-8 BC, VBQ p 171

  It is now a fact that we live in a global village. We watch as bombs are dropping on Ukraine instead of waiting for months to read about it. Crude oil and wheat prices started climbing as soon as the first Russian tank drove into Ukraine. Despite the long distance separating Nigeria from the war front, our economy is a victim of the conflict; and, the damage to us is just being felt. By June, the price of bread will either go up or there will be scarcity of the commodity. Governments have fallen because of this development alone. That is why what is happening in other countries should be of interest to us. It is Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Peru today; it could be Nigeria soon. Here is the summary of what the three nations are facing right now.

In Sri Lanka, a state of emergency has been proclaimed after protests on account of power cuts and shortages because of the economic and foreign exchange crises which rocked the capital and two other cities. Protesters marched to the President’s house demanding his resignation. In Pakistan, the fate of the Prime Minister hangs in the balance. Elected in 2018 on a platform of tackling corruption and fixing the economy; support for him has been eroded on account of skyrocketing inflation and ballooning foreign debt. And, in Peru, the President imposed curfew after fuel protests – following nationwide protests over rising fuel prices. 

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The reasons for massive unrest in those countries are all present in Nigeria today and the tensions they create are building up.

Nigeria faces a unique challenge

“Shock, as terror attack on Army base claims 17 soldiers.” —Report, April 6, 2022

While inflation, power failure, foreign exchange scarcity are becoming common occurrences worldwide, Nigeria is different because of the unprecedented level of insecurity now experienced nationwide. The report of the attack on the Army Base at Polewire, Birnin-Gwari, Kaduna State, by terrorists, two weeks after the attack on the Abuja-Kaduna train, and the attack on Kaduna Airport, a few weeks before have removed any doubt in the minds of Nigerians that nobody is safe anywhere, anymore. Furthermore, the FG is obviously overwhelmed. When terrorists take the battle to the Army, they have signalled their intentions – which are ominous – for the country. Failure to nip the threats in the bud will now cost the nation a lot of money and lives. Some of the consequences are already becoming clear to us.

Abuja-Kaduna train is finished

“A hungry man is an angry man.”

A day after the Inspector General of Police, IGP, visited the scene of the train carnage, promising 24/7 surveillance and protection, bandits struck in a community nearby along the Abuja-Kaduna highway – which is now a regular killing field. Kaduna State in particular has now become a combat zone; and should be declared as such. Nothing is safe in that state now.

Certainly, nobody in his/her right senses would patronise the train service any longer — unless they are bent on committing suicide. The investments in the train facilities are now almost wasted. But, that is not the major cause for worry. Most Nigerians never have to travel Abuja-Kaduna road all their lives. Yet, it is vital to the welfare of all Nigerians – more than we realise.

So, it is not only the train service that will come to a halt. A great deal of the economic and social activities around Kaduna State will be affected. Food from several Northern states pass through Kaduna-Abuja highway to the Southern parts. Finished goods from the South to the deep North also go through the same routes. The inevitable disruption of transportation, which is already occurring, will also result in shortages of food and other products in several states. Inflation, already too high, will certainly get worse; at the same time as aggregate personal income will continue to decline.

We have not yet undertaken a proper study of the negative impacts of the disruption of movement of vehicles on the Kaduna-Abuja and Kaduna-Birnin-Gwari roads on the economy of Nigeria. Add to that, the disruption of road transport in Niger State and Kebbi-Sokoto highway. As terrorists and bandits seize control of these roads mass starvation will be inevitable.

The night economy along all Northern routes has declined precipitously. Few filling stations, food sellers and hotels in small rural communities which, until recently, served night travellers, are opened now. Far fewer night buses now load anywhere in Nigeria; patronage has declined significantly.

But, it is the possibility of food scarcity which poses the greatest threat of widespread civil unrest in Nigeria at the moment.

Truck drivers also cry

“For a man who makes his living shovelling horse manure, a depression has occurred when there is no more manure to shovel.” — Mark Twain, 1835-1910

They are generally tough men; almost impossible to draw tears from their eyes. I have seen drivers brutally assaulted by soldiers without a tear-drop falling. Last week in Abuja, I saw one crying like a child. He has not been asked to carry any load in two weeks. Now, he is without a kobo. He has eight children from three wives. “What am I supposed to tell them”? He asked; with tears freely dropping.

He specialises in transporting farm products. He and others have a reason to cry.

Farmers have been driven off the farms by herdsmen, bandits, kidnappers and Boko Haram. It probably never occurred to us that agriculture provides work for millions of transporters servicing the farmers. With several thousand rural communities virtually deserted, millions of transporters are out of work. Harvest time is often their best period in the year. The last three years have been woefully different for them. Several have been kidnapped with their pick-up trucks. The lucky ones have the trucks returned to them after the food was offloaded. Others lose everything – life included. Many of those alive are starving; because patronage is very low. With wives and children to feed, it is easy to understand their desperation.

Before the dam breaks and the security forces are overwhelmed   by protesters nationwide, those in government should just remember this.

“Love and business and family and religion and art and patriotism are nothing but shadows of words; when a man   is starving.” — O. Henry, 1862-1910.

If we allow the dam of hunger and anger to break in Nigeria, anarchy will surely follow. FG should act now to avert calamity. Time is quarter to midnight.