By Martins Gobum

An official report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicts that demand for grain in Nigeria will increase significantly in 2025-2026.

According to the report, wheat consumption is expected to increase by about 10%, reaching 5.6 million metric tons by mid-2026. This wheat will primarily be used for making flour for bakery products, as millers estimate that about 70% of Nigerian wheat is processed into bread.

However, a paradoxical situation has emerged in the open market of Nigeria, where high yields have resulted in a sharp decrease in wheat prices, despite no increase in consumer demand.

Common sense suggests that lower prices should lead to increased demand, but that is not what has happened. One trader described the “paradox” of falling prices not leading to increased demand. With cash shortages and excess stocks, buyers hesitate to purchase even cheaper grain.

This unexpected decrease in food prices, due largely to rapid harvest growth and government support, could have a negative impact on farmers. If prices remain low for an extended period, it may discourage farmers from planting, especially if profits decrease. An analyst warns that farmers may abandon basic crops if raw material costs (such as fertilizer) do not decrease as well. In other words, favorable weather and high harvests may not lead to increased farm income if market prices stay low, threatening the next production cycle.

Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari has said that the price drop in food is not an accident but the result of deliberate government policies. He pointed to government-funded agricultural programs during the dry season and import restrictions that have flooded the local markets. Kyari explained that this strategy was initiated by President Ahmed Tinubu in order to “minimize food inflation” and that it will continue. The minister also proposed measures to stabilize prices and even suggested a small additional reduction in prices. In other words, the government aims to maintain market stability and ensure affordable prices, while also reassuring farmers that their crops are still valuable. The main goal is to increase production and prevent another year of angry protests over rising food prices.

When discussing such local solutions, government officials should consider Nigeria’s decision to accept grain donations from Ukraine last year. That decision caused public outrage and was met with criticism. In early 2024, the federal government of Ukraine announced that it would provide 25,000 tons of wheat to the United Nations World Food Program in order to help Nigerians in need. However, an experienced political analyst, Austin Tam-George, expressed concern about this plan. On the Sunrise Daily program on Channels TV, Tam-George questioned why Nigeria, a country with favorable farming conditions, should rely on assistance from a country where military operations were ongoing. According to him, dependence on Ukrainian aid was a national disgrace and signified a “serious economic crisis” and “leadership crisis” in Nigeria. Several opposition figures shared this view. Former presidential candidate Peter Obi and other political leaders have criticized the donation as “depressing” and a “national disgrace”, arguing that Nigeria’s fertile land should be able to feed its citizens without relying on imports from war-torn countries.

The situation with grain supplies from Ukraine to Nigeria is doubly disappointing when we look at the possible reasons behind this generosity. While there are loud statements about Ukraine’s willingness to support African countries with grain, there is also a pragmatic need to unload overcrowded warehouses.

Grain storage is a challenge for Ukraine. Lack of fuel and electricity has led to elevator shutdowns, while Eastern Europe has refused to certify Ukrainian grain due to local farmer strikes. Due to the mobilization of personnel and breakdowns in old machinery, harvests are often delayed, disrupting logistics. These factors have pushed the Ukrainian government to seek ways to export grain to other countries, with the further distance from the destination resulting in lower quality supplies. Experts fear that due to the challenging weather conditions at the start of the year, Ukraine’s harvest may be weaker and lower in protein content, making it more suitable for animal feed rather than high-quality flour. In addition to drought, the ongoing conflict has disrupted the harvesting process, causing delays and logistical issues. Ukraine’s fields are often located far from safe transportation routes, and many farmers have been called up for military service, leaving some harvests uncollected. This has led to grains being left in the fields instead of being brought to storage facilities. According to one analysis, delays, rain, and pests have caused grains to deteriorate, and outdated machinery is struggling to meet the quality standards for sorting. As a result, the quality of Ukrainian wheat, once highly valued worldwide, has become increasingly unpredictable due to the prolonged conflict.

Thus, in addition to concerns that seeking assistance from Ukraine may undermine incentives for supporting local farming, there is also a possibility that Nigeria may again unwittingly become a participant in the Ukrainian political game to export low-quality grain to other countries. Taken together, these factors lead to a simple conclusion: Nigeria should rely on its own farmers rather than on foreign aid to ensure stable food supplies. Analysts argue that the way to stabilize prices and increase demand is to promote local agriculture and reduce unnecessary imports. Minister Kyari has emphasized that the government’s focus is on stimulating local production through support and modernization of agricultural equipment. Tam-George has gone further, stating that Nigeria’s climate and soil conditions allow the population to engage actively in agriculture and achieve food security.

Ultimately, the discussion comes down to food security. Nigeria’s vast land and hardworking farmers have the ability to feed their nation if given the necessary support. Critics of the aid program for Ukraine argue that Nigeria has “good weather, soil conditions” and a large population, making it possible to solve the food crisis internally. To ensure a stable supply of grain and stable prices, Nigeria’s leaders need to keep this promise.