We are discussing the current political power structure under President Bola Tinubu, and the chances of the North possibly mobilising regional resources to push him out in 2027. Our argument is that it is a herculean task, almost a mission impossible.

To be sure, there is always the “X” factor in human affairs, especially when it comes to the dynamic interplays of power politics. It was this factor that removed General Sani Abacha from power through death, and thus prevented him from transforming into a possible life “civilian” president in 1998. It hustled General Olusegun Obasanjo from prison to Aso Villa in 1999. Yet, it prevented the same Obasanjo from giving himself tenure elongation in 2006. The “X” factor can very easily prevail against Tinubu; and it does not even have to wait till 2027.

Tinubu’s seeming political invincibility has very little to do with his performance as president. If performance were still a deciding factor in Nigerian politics, Muhammadu Buhari would not have been elected to a second term in 2019. Indeed, I strongly believe he lost the election to Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the PDP. But the same factors that will ensure Tinubu’s second term came to Buhari’s aid. I also believe that Peter Obi won the 2023 presidential election, if not for INEC’s manipulation of the system and Buhari’s use of the state apparatus to validate the announced results. The fact that Tinubu’s loyalists such as Bisi Akande, Dele Alake, Bayo Onanuga and others are still being haunted by Peter Obi instead of Atiku Abubakar, the man who purportedly came second, says it all.

The threats by Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi (PDP Governors Forum Chairman) and Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, AYCF, noisemaker, Yerima Shettima, that the North would grab power from Tinubu in 2027, hold no water. As I noted in the first part of this article, North’s powers are often over-exaggerated, especially by the Northerners. They use it to boast and frighten; they weaponise it to intimidate. But in truth, the North can only leverage its political advantages when a major part of the South – either South-East/South-South or South- West, agrees to work with it. In other words, it is the perennial disunity of the South that feeds North’s powers as we saw in 2015.

In 2011, the North tried – and failed – to use its “majority” powers to thwart former President Goodluck Jonathan’s political ambitions. Jonathan not only trounced North’s candidate, Atiku, for the PDP’s presidential ticket on January 14, 2011, he also emasculated Buhari at the presidential election on April 17, 2011. Ironically, Jonathan is an indigene of Nigeria’s smallest state by population– Bayelsa. In Nigeria, the power of incumbency is stronger than regional gang-up. This was proved in Kogi State last year when outgoing Governor Yahaya Bello, successfully imposed fellow minority Ebira man, Usman Ododo, on the state, thus demystifying the overwhelming Igala majority which used to monopolise power there.

Nigerian president’s power of incumbency rests on several legs. The president has almost unfettered access to the nation’s treasury which he can use to keep politicians coming to lick oil from his toes. He has the right of first refusal as the leader of his ruling party. He appoints (and can remove or destroy) the Chairman of INEC and members of the election management body. He has power over the armed forces, police, security agencies, anti-graft bodies and other state operatives, which he can use to his advantage and the disadvantage of his opponents. In recent years, Nigerian presidents have come to ensure that the heads of these state agencies are not just their tribal elements but also their dependable personal loyalists who have everything to lose if the president loses.

To top it all, Buhari and Tinubu perfected the antic of appointing their tribal and religious stooges as the Chief Justices of Nigeria, CJN, who appoints the Supreme Court judges that pronounce final verdicts on presidential election petitions. Once the INEC announces a result and the Supreme Court concurs, o tan. Finish.

All these have already been neatly lined up in Tinubu’s favour. When Prof Yakubu finally moves out of INEC headquarters in October this year, Tinubu will likely bring a strong loyalist to head the INEC. That appointee will be in a position to conduct Tinubu’s second term election in 2027.

Tinubu has another factor to his advantage. He is possibly the most formidable politician in Nigeria’s history. How was he able to navigate all the disadvantages against him – poor health, poor campaign, poor media image, the stigma of EndSARS/Lekki Toll Gate shootings in Lagos, Buhari’s initial opposition to him as his successor, Muslim-Muslim ticket, the overwhelming desire by the Nigerian youth for change and ability to “capture” his party and the state from outside the corridors of power? These are the stuff of political legend, in all honesty. Is it now that he is a sitting president that he will so easily fall?

Tinubu’s party, the widely-hated APC, is still gathering force, with more politicians coming in and very few going out. Despite its dismal failures as a ruling party, the APC is strong and intact. This is unlike the PDP which suffered the rebellion of seven state governors, five of whom pulled out to join the then opposition APC. Also, unlike Jonathan, no world powers are plotting Tinubu’s fall. Not yet.

However, election year 2027 is still far away. Anything is possible. Abacha did not know what hit him. Obasanjo did not know how the hell he ended up in Aso Villa from a condemned man’s cell in Yola Prisons. According to legendary novelist, James Hadley Chase:

Nemesis is a recoil of nature which, not to be guarded against, always surprises the wary transgressor!

Auf wiedersehen.