By Chioma Gabriel, Deputy Editor
Voters’ preferences during elections can not be ignored. Candidates for elective offices are thrown up by the parties. Depersonalization of the candidates on the voter’s card is a common feature in democracy. Candidates are rather identified with the electoral symbol of the party or its leader.

One of the major factors that will determine the voting pattern in today’s National Assembly  election is support for  “constructive” opposition. New political parties like the Congress for Progressive Change , CPC, will be tested for the first time in the polls.

CPC which is believed to enjoy massive support in the North would today know  the depth of its impart. The involvement of Pastor Tunde Bakare, Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate would be tested in the South West and if they combine well, the ruling political party, PDP would not only have the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, to contend with in the South West due to the larger-than-life image of the party leader, Bola Tinubu but the CPC as well.

Besides constructive opposition, another factor that can either strengthen or diminish voters’ interest in a candidate in the election is  “massive migration” of voters from one candidate to the other determined by the “useful vote” or, on the contrary “protest vote” phenomena. Some voters might have decided to abandon the candidates they voted for in the last elections who are seeking another term in the National Assembly elections. Incumbents who did not perform will lose to their opponents in the ‘protest vote’ phenomenon.

Moreover, name recognition helps to direct the voters on who to support but names of candidates don’t feature on the ballot papers. However, voters who establish their candidates very early pick people whose name they recognize more often than someone they don’t.

According to Senator Joy Emordi, a senatorial candidate on the platform of APGA from Anambra State, “ a candidate’s performance in the past is a strong factor. Voters look at people’s past performance and their  personal integrity to determine the person’s pedigree. In Anambra state where I am contesting under APGA, voters consider  Peter Obi’s performance and use it as a yardstick to vote for other APGA’s candidates.

That was the pattern last week but at the last minute, PDP candidates brought in another factor in the form of  financial inducement. Money was being shared  openly by PDP candidates and I don’t know to what extent that would go in determining  who people would vote for. But financial inducement is equally a strong factor.

However, I believe people could still collect money and vote for their preferred candidates.

“Last Saturday in Anambra, just before the postponement, something strange began to happen during the elections  which could have jeopardised  a candidate’s chance of  winning. Text messages began to circulate saying that certain candidates are no longer in the race and that was false. They did it to me.  They also did the same to Dora Akunyili.

They circulated text messages that I am no longer in the senatorial race, that the governor even said he regretted having me as APGA candidate but that was false . We had  to counter those  text messages because they were using them to misdirect voters into thinking that their favourite candidates are no longer in the race.

But that was a wicked rumour. “

Ordinarily, one would have thought that the cancellation of last Saturday’s election would give candidates more time to campaign and get their  messages out but it is still in doubt whether the postponement in anyway would  work  favorably for  the candidates . Hon. Dave Salako, a member of the House of Representatives from Ogun State told Saturday Vanguard that elections are no issues for the candidates.

“ Generally, every election is for the parties. Whatever you are, you are for the party. People vote according to their conscience for the party. In my state, I campaigned for my party the PDP and regardless of the factions of the party in the state, PDP will win. So, to me, the party is the strongest factor. That’s why you hear things like someone being in the wrong party. But in Ogun State, it’s still the  PDP.

However,  I’m still pessimistic if we will hold elections in Ogun due to the circumstances now. I’m for PDP and have worked vigorously for PDP to win. And  if you look at the ballot papers, there are no photos of candidates, only party logos and so, the candidate is the party, not the individual and that is one truth I tell myself.

I hope the elections hold here and I’m sure PDP will win. We have worked very hard for this election.
“ That also shows that how hard  you work for a particular election  is a strong factor in winning that election. You don’t say that because the voters are familiar with you or with your party and you don’t work hard.. If you don’t work hard, others will overtake you. So, you have to work very hard for your party and for yourself.”
In politics, powerful personalities, godfathers in Nigerian parlance can sway the minds of the masses in favour of their candidates or parties.

There is a sprinkling of such personalities in the ruling party and some opposition  parties in Nigeria. In the ACN , there is the  Lagos State former governor, Bola Tinubu who was alleged in a current text messages making the rounds in Lagos to have gone into a blood oath-taking with Governor Fashola, an allegation that has been denied by both parties.

Tinubu was also alleged to have warned the Governor that if his wife Remi Tinubu does not win the race to the senate, he ( Tinubu ) would not support Fashola again.

Also in Lagos State, the return of Chief Bode George is expected to increase the chances of PDP in winning in Lagos because he is the ultimate godfather in PDP Lagos. That is one fact  that is yet to be proven. But the godfather, Bode George says that performance of ACN in Lagos would be the deciding factor.

“ I know our people can not be fooled  again. You can see that the ruling party in Lagos in spite of their acclaimed hardwork or performance, are jittery, given  the support we are gaining by the day. The artisans who this present government has taken out of business cannot vote for them, the okada riders who are anticipating sanctions from the same government cannot vote for them The land lords  paying double taxation, and land use rent cannot vote for them. Any reasonable government must be friendly.

That is what PDP represents in Lagos. So, we are sure of winning the political positions where we fielded candidates.”

Farouk Lawan, a member of the House of Representatives from Kano state opines that more than just one factor can determine the voting pattern.

“ It’s a combination of so many factors. My performance so far in the House counts and my party’s performance too. In Kano state where I come from, there is a new desire. ANPP is the party in power in Kano state today  but the people no longer want ANPP. They want PDP for change. CPC is in crisis in Kano.

General Abacha’s son  is the governorship candidate of CPC in Kano but the party said he is not their member, yet he is the one recognised by INEC . From what I am seeing,  PDP will win Kano at all levels of elections. Kano is now a highly sophisticated place and PDP is the party to beat because the people desire change. As for me, I will win. I am sure”.

Indeed , the postponement of last Saturday’s election has taught Nigerians a lesson . Today, the other parties are looking beyond a simple revolution. They are talking of not only winning legislative seats but also dislodging the PDP from the seat of power at all levels.

Press statements and opinion pieces emanating from the camps of the opposition parties are singing the nunc dimities of PDP in Nigeria, brandishing what they refer to as the ‘mass exodus’ of  PDP members to the other parties as evidence of the renewed potency of the opposition in the country. But it is not clear whether the PDP believes that an opposition revolution is in the works.

What is clear, however, is that the PDP has taken opposition moves and threats seriously and is not leaving anything to chance. The party leadership has also initiated series of meetings with various party stakeholders to prepare them for the battle ahead and the D-Day is today.