By Boluwaji Obahopo

WITH the conclusion of primaries of the various parties and submission of list of candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the battle for the soul of Kogi is a straight one between the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, except the unexpected happens.

APC Vs PDP

Before the primaries, it was difficult to predict where the pendulum of victory between APC and PDP.  However, after the primaries, some political analysts say it may be difficult for the PDP to win the race, claiming that the APC won the governorship election expected to hold in November on September 3, 2019, the day the PDP primary was conducted.

Governor Yahaya Bello emerged as governor of the state in 2016 by a divine arrangement when he legally and by the APC federal government arrangement inherited the votes of late Prince Abubakar Audu,  who died at the edge of victory in 2015. Bello was sworn-in as Governor on January 27, 2016, to the surprise of many, but to the happiness of the West and Central senatorial districts that had since the creation of the state prayed fervently for power rotation.

Bello’s early days

The early days of Bello’s administration came with the baggage of challenges largely due to the manner he came into office and his efforts to secure legitimacy. There were several legal battles and negative reports from a civil service screening that was meant to ascertain the real and genuine workforce. At some point, Kogi State was always in the news over non-payment of salaries.

There was also the political issue that Governor Yahaya Bello had to grapple with. Getting a second term ticket was an issue that heated the Kogi polity like never before. The State literally moved to Abuja, with the APC National Secretariat serving as the battleground.

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Months of protest over direct or indirect primaries and other issues surrounding who flies the party’s governorship flag.

But like a chicken that has come home to roost, Governor Yahaya Bello defeated  no fewer than seven aspirants to emerge the APC flag bearer as some aspirants were disqualified and kicked out.s

Few days after the APC governorship primary produced Bello, the PDP held its primary in a manner, that also left a sour taste in the mouths of some aspirants. Mass defection has hit the party after the primary. Many analysts say with the current infighting tearing the party apart, it may not recover before the poll.

Despite the activities of reconciliation committees the party has put in place, the PDP is going into the Kogi governorship election with a divided front led by a relatively new breed politician, Engineer Musa Wada. Without Federal Might and inability to match the APC money for money, the PDP has a tough nut to crack.

Conversely, the APC boasts of federal might, structure in the state, a sitting governor; seven of nine National Assembly members; and all 25 Kogi State lawmakers and 21 local council administrators to its credit.

It is to be seen who the civil servants will support. They constitute a critical segment that plays critical roles in Kogi politics. While the governor claimed he had settled their backlog of salaries but some of them claim otherwise.

Battle for the zones

Governor Bello, going into the election with the support of Kogi Central that accounts for 25 per cent of the state’s voting strength. His kinsmen had in time past demonstrated a complete voting pattern for their sons in governorship contests.

APC’s nomination of Chief Edward Onoja, from Kogi East, as deputy governorship candidate is expected to boost its fortunes at the poll. The Eastern Senatorial district has 49 per cent of registered voters. The failure of Igala aspirants emerging from the ruling APC and the entrance of Edward as the Governor’s running mate has further changed the conservative thinking of the East.

Similarly, with some young, and vibrant new entrant politicians from the East having tested the spoils of political office, they are sure not going to trade uncertainty for certainty, thus having a deputy governor now and what will follow in the coming years with Edward Onoja in 2023 is uppermost in the minds of majority of easterners to work for an APC victory.

However, some analysts argued that the battle for eastern votes will be 50-50 because the PDP candidate hails the zone and is expected to get the backing of some of his people.

Another area of interest in the November election is the West. This area and people remain dynamic in their voting pattern. They are however faced with a Herculean task this time around to deliver for APC and ask for power in 2023. This strategy has, therefore, made the area to be on its toes. Already all those aggrieved within and have left the APC are now returning. Many also from the PDP are moving to the APC.

The choice of the PDP running mate, Sam Aro, maybe another setback for the PDP. Some of his Yagba kinsmen are against his choice on account of his crisscrossing among five parties in a spate of three administration. He moved from PDP to APC, then to Accord, back to APC and now PDP.

Also, Abubakar Ibrahim is in court challenging the outcome of the PDP primary, which he claimed he won.

Many in the state feel so sad that PDP seeking to be the alternative to APC, are the same people, who opened gunfire at their members during the primary.

For many like Senator Dino Melaye, who would have been a strong voice for the party in the West, had declined to be DG campaign. Unfortunately, even when the 247 missing votes at the primary were ‘found and added’ to Melaye’s 70 votes allocated him, he has refused to be pacified. So also is Chief Clarence Olafemi, former governor and speaker and several others who have left the PDP fold.

With the look of things, PDP seems to have floundered what many termed a golden opportunity.  And 2019 seems not to be their year.

Vanguard