By Johnbosco Agbakwuru

Objectively speaking, the two years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration have been laced with pains and gains.

Though a school of thought believes otherwise, for the ordinary person on the street, it is assumed that the pain outweighs the gain.

The reason for this assertion is not far-fetched as most Nigerians rate the performance of an administration by the inflation rate and the cost of living which includes the prices of the basic necessities of life.

The May 29, 2023 declaration immediately he took over the mantle of leadership as the President that ‘subsidy is gone’ has affected the socio-economic activities in the country greatly as this has affected the prices of goods and services. But like the parabellum doctrine, ’Si Vis Pacem’, if you want peace prepare for war, the government appears ready to take hard decisions that could seem to inflict pains at the beginning but at the end set the people free from the economic quagmire.

Although Tinubu has told Nigerians not to pity him because he applied for the job, it appears he underestimated the magnitude of the rot in the system and never expected the turnout of events as it is today.

He has lamented that he met a nearly failed state, but he appears determined to take the bull by the horn to sail the country out of the troubled waters.

 Reforms

 Two years after, while the government highlights economic reforms, infrastructure gains, and rising investments, many citizens are still burdened by inflation, insecurity, and hardship.

On the streets of Lagos, Owerri, Katsina, Sokoto, Kano, Port Harcourt, Makurdi and Abeokuta, many Nigerians speak of pain, hunger, and growing frustration.

The Pan Yoruba socio-cultural organization, Afenifere had recently accused Tinubu’s administration of economic mismanagement, democratic regression, and failure in human development in its first two years in office.

Afenifere said that Tinubu’s economic reforms particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floatation of the Naira have led to unmitigated sufferings and economic reforms. For some, the problem is self inflicted because of the three-word declaration that sent ripples through every sector: “Subsidy is gone.”

From the onset, the President did not pretend on the kind of policies he was coming with.

There was no ambiguity in the direction his administration was headed.

He immediately in clear terms sent the signal that he was ready to confront the old order in pursuit of economic overhaul and not to apply any cosmetic solution.

In quick succession came a raft of reforms: floatation of naira, tax adjustments, deregulation of the oil sector, and the liberalization of power generation laws.

The consequences of the reforms have been heavy on the masses. The cost of living has skyrocketed with inflation going high on a daily basis. But two years after, the administration is celebrating what it describes as “bold reforms to reset the economy and restore Nigeria’s global economic credibility.”  According to the administration, the reforms have borne fruit.

Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, while reacting to the claims made by Afenifere, described the group views as jaundiced.

He highlighted several landmark reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market which, he said, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023, eased fiscal pressure, and increased Nigeria’s foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024.

 He contended that while Inflation is said to be still high, it has begun to stabilize, with headline inflation declining to 23.71% as of April 2025.

Dare said: “The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023 alone, reducing fiscal strain and redirecting funds to other sectors. Unifying the foreign exchange market and the naira’s floatation aimed to address distortions in the currency market, boosted foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024 and achieved a trade surplus of N18.86 trillion for the country.

“Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in the prior month. Food inflation, the most significant component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26% from 21.79%

“While these figures indicate stabilisation, the immediate impact on ordinary Nigerians is not lost. The government’s cash transfer programme, which provides funds to the poorest households and benefits over 5.7 million households, is a credible outreach.”

Data

Besides, data from officials of government stated that, as of today, the Tinubu administration has recorded over 900,000 beneficiaries of the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, over 600,000 beneficiaries of the Students’ Loan Scheme, NELFUND, N70,000 minimum wage, NYSC monthly stipend increase from N33,000 to N77,000, Free CNG kits distributed to thousands of commercial drivers across Nigeria with CNG buses rolled out in partnership with state governments, leading to a significant drop in transport costs.

The administration also recorded over $10 billion FX debt cleared, Federal Account allocation to states growing by 60%, enabling more local development projects, N50 billion released to end the perennial ASUU strikes, and over 1,000 PHCs revitalised nationwide with an additional 5,500 undergoing upgrades.

The administration has disbursed N75 billion in palliative funds to states and local government areas for food distribution and cash transfers, over 150,000 youths are being trained in software development, tech support and data analysis under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) project, over 20,000 affordable housing units under construction under the Renewed Hope cities program launched across Nigeria, N200 billion in loans to farmers and agro-processors.

Other gains: over two million Nigerians are now connected to new digital infrastructure and community broadband hubs and public WiFi projects, 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 (highest in 3 years), over $50 billion in new FDI Commitments, Net Foreign Exchange Reserves up from $3.99 Billion (2023) to $23.11 billion (2024), over $8 billion in new oil and gas investments unlocked, and over $800 million realised in processing investments in solid minerals in 2024 and inflation as at April was down to 23.17%.

Despite the efforts by government, some critics argue that the primary responsibility of government is the protection of lives and property, alleging that not much has been achieved by the government.

They claim that terrorist groups have staged a ferocious war against the country.

They say that the security situation is deteriorating as the insurgent groups attack and kill civilians and soldiers especially in northern Nigeria. However, the government has said that there are tremendous improvements despite the challenge on ground.

 Terrorists eliminated

 A recent data it released shows that over 13,500 terrorists, bandits, and insurgents have been neutralised and 7,000 arrested in the past year. Some experts on security matters are of the view that the administration’s proactive response to security-related matters has paved the way for more farmers to return to their farms, impacting food production and supply.

The administration also embarked on agricultural initiatives, including tractor procurement, fertiliser distribution, and increased mechanisation.

The government has not relented on its regional development drive as the administration has established development commissions across the six geopolitical zones (South West, North-West, North-Central, North-East, South-East and the South-South) to empower communities and accelerate developments.

The economic reforms are undoubtedly laying the foundation for long-term stability, with GDP growth at 4.6% in Q4 2024 and a Fitch B credit rating upgrade as evidence. Moody’s Investors Service’s latest upgrade of Nigeria’s rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook, indicates that the Tinubu administration is on the right path.

An economist at the University of Ibadan, Dr. Olufemi Banjoko, said “the statistics sound impressive.”

He, however, added: “But they don’t tell you that inflation remains at double digits, or that food prices have tripled since the subsidy removal.”

Indeed, the fuel subsidy removal led to a spike in transport costs and food prices.

A loaf of bread now costs nearly double what it did in May 2023. Despite emergency food grain distribution and tax holidays on basic food items, hunger levels have worsened, with urban and rural households alike forced into harsh coping mechanisms.

The Tinubu administration has responded with a variety of interventions: The Pulaku Initiative for conflict resolution, the declaration of a food security emergency, fertiliser donations, and cash support.

Yet, public sentiment remains brittle.

 Infrastructure, industrial hope, and ‘Renewed Hope’ vision

 If Tinubu’s presidency is to be judged on momentum, his administration scores high. A review of key projects shows:

• Over 440 road projects across the country, including the 1,068km Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway.

• Launch of the Renewed Hope Cities housing programme.

• Resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt Refinery.

• Unveiling of the Abuja Light Rail and commencement of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway.

• Upgrades in military and naval capabilities, with new patrol vessels and helicopters inducted.

• Expansion of digital skills training under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) program.

Aside the new regional development commissions, the government boasts of technology-focused projects like the Tinubu Technology Innovation Complex.

In energy, the Presidential CNG Initiative is underway, and Nigeria recorded its highest-ever daily power generation of 6,003MW.

However, implementation capacity and transparency concerns still trail many of these programs. Critics worry that flashy groundbreakings and launches might not translate into sustained impact.

On the international front, Tinubu has taken an active role.

He was elected Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, heads of States and government, led Nigeria’s delegation to the G20 Summit in Brazil, and hosted global leaders like Narendra Modi and Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

His government signed landmark energy and infrastructure deals with Qatar, Brazil, and China, while pushing regional integration through the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol.

But as the government celebrates its milestones, it must also contend with a fragile public mood.

Labour unions have held multiple protests, and a new minimum wage, while welcomed, is yet to match inflationary pressures.

Trust in government remains low, and social discontent simmers beneath the surface. But so, far, the government is only two years out of the four years provided by the Constitution for a term which could be renewed at the expiration of the four years.

With the team of experts assembled by the government, it’s expected that the worst times are over if the promises are anything to rely on.

The President still has time to bridge the gap between reform and relief. That would require translating macroeconomic gains into lower food prices, better healthcare access, and jobs for Nigeria’s restless youth. Programs like the Nigerian Youth Academy, Skill-Up Artisans, and Outsource to Nigeria are steps in that direction — but scaling them up and ensuring inclusivity will be critical.

As it has been promised that the government is not oblivious to some discontent and difficult times among Nigerians, there is an urgency to deliver more tangible results to reduce the sufferings the masses are passing through.

It is bragged in some quarters that the administration has achieved fiscal improvements, such as reduced deficits and increased revenues, but it is expected that this will ve translated into meaningful microeconomic relief for most Nigerians in the short term, even as the government moves to address the issues with greater empathy and transparency.