…as 1,200 Communities Face Imminent Flood Risks

By Favour Ulebor, Abuja

The Nigeria Climate Innovation Centre (NCIC) has warned that Nigeria’s GDP per capita could decline by as much as 55% if the country and the world continue along their current emission pathways.

The warning came at the official launch of the Nigeria Climate Impact Outlook Report on Thursday in Abuja.

The CEO of NCIC, Bankole Oloruntoba, described the report as a wake-up call to align innovation, data, and policy around climate action.

According to the report, over 70% of Nigeria’s landmass — projected to host 300 million people by 2070 — could face extreme temperatures above 29°C annually.

In major cities, heat index levels could soar to 51°C, threatening lives, especially among vulnerable urban populations.

He said, “This report is more than a document. It’s a rallying point for collaboration.

“If we don’t change course, heat stress alone could reduce Nigeria’s GDP per capita by over 50%. That’s before you even factor in floods, droughts, or food insecurity.”

The report further warned that labour capacity in agriculture could drop by 14%, crop prices could rise by 45%, and poverty could increase by nearly 10% nationwide, making Nigeria the most affected country in West Africa under current emissions scenarios.

He noted that NCIC’s work in catalyzing green entrepreneurship, building innovation pipelines, and facilitating investment readiness is not in competition with policy, but meant to complement and amplify it.

He called on stakeholders to see the report not just as a reference, but as a launchpad for action, saying, “Let today not just be about a report, but a beginning—a collective opportunity to co-build Nigeria’s climate future.”

The Executive Director of GIFSEP, Dr. Michael Terungwa, stressed the urgency of the crisis, recalling Nigeria’s past losses from climate disasters.

He said, “In 2012, Nigeria lost N2.6 trillion to floods and displaced 2.1 million people. In 2022, we lost another N9 billion.

“Now in 2025, we’re being told 30 states, including the FCT, and 1,200 communities are at risk. What more do we need to take this seriously?”.

He added that climate change is no longer a distant threat.

He said, “The cost of land degradation, the impact on food systems, the economic burden, we don’t even fully know what’s ahead if we keep business as usual. That’s why this report is timely and crucial.

“We must unlearn outdated assumptions; We must learn from the data before us, and relearn what it truly means to protect the Nigerian dream.” He added

The Country Lead for the Global Strategic Communications Council, Daniel Oladoja, explained that the report is not a prophecy but a science-based warning.

He said, “This is a probabilistic statement, not cast in stone.

“The goal is to guide policy and prevent arbitrary decisions. We worked with local experts and academics to ensure the findings reflect Nigeria’s context.”

The report, developed by the Nigeria Climate Innovation Centre (NCIC) in collaboration with Connect Development Centre and the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID), offers a data-driven projection of Nigeria’s climate future, highlighting major risks such as flooding, land degradation, and food insecurity.