ARGUABLY, today’s presidential and National Assembly elections can pass for the keenest exercise in the history of elections in Nigeria.

BY CLIFFORD NDUJIHE & CHARLES KUMOLU

For the first time a coalition of diverse political parties sank their differences and coalesced into a mega party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) with the sole aim of pushing the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) out of Aso Rock, the Presidential villa.

Faced with a very serious challenge for the first time in 16 years, the PDP has come out in full force countering the moves of the APC and wooing the electorate.

Thus, the APC and PDP’s claims and counter-claims, accusations and counter-accusations, ahead of the elections, have heated up the polity leading to palpable fears of violence before, during and after polls.

The fears dove-tailed into the debate on whether or not the military should be deployed for the polls. A Lagos Federal High Court, on Monday, ruled that it is unconstitutional to deploy the military to monitor elections, which it held is the function of the police. The ruling generated further controversies with some saying that the ruling is in order while others countered that the President has the power to deploy the military to ensure security during the exercises.

All said and done, the polity is turbo-charged for what may pass as the most hotly contested and closest elections in Nigeria’s democratic history. And the outcome will show whether democracy has been consolidated or otherwise.

Today’s election is the 10th in the series of general elections the country has held since 1959.

It is also the fifth since the restoration of democracy in 1999 after a long spell of military rule.

The history of general elections in Nigeria, pre-dated the country’s independence, given that polls had been held at regional levels before the nation attained independence from Britain on October 1, 1960.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alhaji Ahmadu Bello

Since 1959 federal elections, presidential polls were held in the following years: 1964/1965, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011.

But for the 1959 exercise that was held during colonial administration, the elections of 1979, 1993 and 1999 were conducted by military regimes, while the 1964/65, 2003, 2007 and 2011 took place during civilian administrations.

Like today’s exercise, issues that border on crisis of succession, credibility of the electoral process and volatile political climate, remarkably shaped the outcome of these contests.

An in depth look highlights how these elections shaped the nation’s democratic journey.

1959: Coalition government

Known as 1959 federal elections, about seven political parties including independent candidates participated in that parliamentary election.

The parties that took part were the National Council of Nigerians and Cameroon, NCNC; Action Group; Northern Peoples Congress, NPC; Northern Elements Progressive Union, NEPU; Mabolaje Grand Alliance; Igala Union; Igbira Tribal Union and Niger Delta Congress.

The NPC emerged the winner of the contest that was held on December 12, 1959 by winning 134 seats out of 312 seats in the House of Representatives. The turnout for that election that ushered Nigeria into independence in 1960 was 79.5 per cent.

Notably, key regional politicians, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe and Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who at that time were no longer premiers of their regions, participated in that election.

A distinguishing aspect of that exercise was that the inability of the NPC to win the required seats, prevented the party from forming the government alone, hence, the formation of a coalition of political parties.

The parties involved in that arrangement were the NPC, NCNC and NEPU.

While the NPC produced the Prime Minister, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa-Balewa, NCNC had the ceremonial President, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe. The Action Group became the opposition party and kept the government on its toes.

1964/65: Wild wild West

At the end of the first term of the First Republic, another election was scheduled to hold on December 30, 1964.

The opposition of the AG elicited response from the central government. The ruling coalition also had internal disagreements. And as a result of massive boycott in some parts of Western, Midwestern and Eastern regions, the elections were not held until March 18, 1965.

It was an election that took the country to the brink and even kick-started the crisis that eventually snowballed into the 30-month Nigeria/Biafra war.

The participating parties were the NPC,NCNC, Action Group, Northern Progressive Front, Midwest Democratic Front, Dynamic Party, Republican Party, Socialist Workers and Farmers Party, Niger Delta Congress and Independents.

The outcome was a victory for the NPC which won 162 of the 312 seats in the House of Representatives, while the NNA alliance had a total of 198 seats.

Given that the election was reportedly marked by high incidence of manipulation and violence, the crisis surrounding the disputed result was among the reasons adduced by late Major Chukwuma Nzeogwu for toppling Balewa’s government.

The crisis started in the Western region leading to wanton destruction of lives and property in what came to be known as the ‘wild wild West’ and ‘operation we-tie.’

The country did not recover from the mayhem and it became one of the reasons some young military hot-heads cited for staging the first coup of January 15, 1966, which in turn led to the July 1966 second coup, further instability and massive killings in the North and eventually the civil war when the Eastern Region seceded to form the Republic of Biafra. The zenith of the crises was the 30-month civil war of 1967-70 during which about two million lives were wasted.

1979: The 12 two-third imbroglio

After the civil war, the General Yakubu Gowon military government promised to hand-over to civilians in 1976. However, in 1975 he said the transition to civil rule was no longer feasible. The comment led to the General Murtala Mohammed coup. Murtala was killed about six months later on February 13, 1976 and his successor, General Olusegun Obasanjo promised to continue with the 1979 hand-over date.

Upon the publishing of the 1979 draft constitution by the Constituent Assembly, the Olusegun Obasanjo regime lifted the ban on politics on September 21, 1978.

It was a move that relaunched most First Republic politicians into the political scene.

The parties that participated in that election were the National Party of Nigeria, NPN; Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN; Nigerian Peoples Party, NPP; Great Nigeria Peoples Party, GNPP; Nigeria Advanced Party, NAP; and Peoples Redemption Party, PRP.

Presidential candidates that contested were Alhaji Shehu Shagari of NPN, Azikiwe of NPP, Obafemi Awolowo of UPN, Aminu Kanu of PRP and Adamu Waziri of GNPP.

At the end of the election that was held on August 11, 1979, Shagari had 5,668,857 votes representing 33 percent of the total votes.

Awolowo of the UPN scored 4,916,651 votes which was 29.18 percent of the total votes, while NPP’s Azikiwe scored 2,822, 523 votes representing 16.75 percent.

PRP’s 1,732, 11 was 10.28 percent of the general votes while GNPP had 1,686, 489 which was 10.02 percent of the votes.

The election result was disputed because of the argument that NPN did not meet the constitutional specification that the winner should have not only the majority of votes, but at least 25 percent of votes cast in two-third of the 19 states.

Even though the controversy over the outcome of the polls was resolved by the Supreme Court, what constituted two-third of 19 states as stated in that judgement was still in dispute.

1983: Moonslide victory

The 1983 election, which the opposition dismissed as massively rigged for the ruling NPN was indeed a walk over. President Shagari trounced his main opponents, Awolowo (UPN) and Azikiwe (NPP) with a very wide margin that the NPN dubbed its victory as ‘moon slide.’ The military thereafter seized power again. Buhari emerged Head of State and in another coup, General Ibrahim Gbadamosi Babangida overthrew him and became Nigeria’s first military President. His planned transition to democracy appeared long.

1993: Freest and fairest election

Regarded as a watershed in Nigeria’s political history, the June 12, 1993 election was the first election since the December 31 1983 toppling of the Shagari Administration by the Major General Muhammadu Buhari military coup.

Supervised by the defunct National Electoral Commission, NEC, under the leadership of Prof Humphrey Nwosu, only two parties, the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and National Republican Convention, NRC, participated.

While Chief Moshood Abiola flew the flag of SDP, Alhaji Bashir Tofa represented the NRC.

In a keenly contested election in which Nigerians shunned ethnic and religious sentiments, Abiola was on the way to winning the polls with eight million votes while Tofa had about six million when the General Ibrahim Babangida military regime stopped further announcement of results and annulled the election.

The five-year crisis emanating from the annulment of the election took the nation to the brink. Babangida had to step aside from power and handed over to an interim government headed by Abiola’s kinsman, Chief Ernest Shonekan, who was pushed aside by General Sani Abacha, three months later.

The June 12 elections recorded a number of firsts in the annals of electioneering in the country. It was the first time only two candidates ran the presidential race.

It was also the first time that presidential candidates participated in a live television debate. It was an election that broke ethnic and religious barriers.

The election was adjudged the most credible in Nigeria’s history.

Today, the date of that election can pass for a memorial day, given the significance of the election in the nation’s political trajectory.

A host of eminent Nigerians from all parts of the country especially the South-West sustained the struggle for the ‘actualisation of June 12.’

When Abacha died on June 8, 1998 and General Abdulsalami Abubakar took over, the head of state announced a short transition programme. Abiola was to die in detention on July 7, 1998. Within a space of one month, the country was on the journey to civil rule and reached her destination on May 29, 1999.

1999: Killing the ghost of June 12

Held on February 27, 1999, it was the last election to be conducted the military. The election ushered in the current civil rule after 16 years of military rule.

The exercise was held under an atmosphere of uncertainty and high expectation. Following what was collectively considered as the need to address the injustice of annulling the June 12, 1993 polls and assuage the South-West geo-political zone, the Yoruba produced the two presidential candidates General Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae, who ran the race.

The participating political parties were the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the Alliance for Democracy/All Peoples Party, AD/APP.

With a voter turnout of 52 percent, the election was won by PDP’s Obasanjo, who had 62.78 percent of the votes with a total votes cast of 18, 738,144, while Falae of the AD/APP alliance had 11, 110,287 votes representing 37.22 percent of the total votes.

2003: All comers’ affair

This election that was held on April 19, 2003 was the first to be organised by a civilian administration in 15 years.

Unlike others before it, no fewer than 20 political parties fielded candidates.

Obasanjo defeated his closest rival Gen Muhammadu Buhari with 24, 456,140 votes which was 61.94 percent of the total votes.

However, the exercise was clouded by high rate of electoral fraud, making nearly all opposition parties to refuse recognizing the result.

2007: Do-or-die election

The 2007 contest was the first time the nation experienced civilian to civilian transition.

Doubts that the election may not hold were punctured by the May 16, 2006 rejection of Obasanjo’s alleged Third Term plot by the Senate.

The Senate voted to block a constitutional amendment which would have allowed Obasanjo to serve more than two terms in office.

Former President Obasanjo

With that, the stage was set for the transition which culminated into the presidential election of April 21, 2007. One take-away of the election was Obasanjo’s comment that the exercise was a do-or-die affair for the PDP.

Out of the 25 political parties that participated, the PDP’s Alhaji Umar Yar’Adua won the election with 24,638,063 votes. He got 69.60 percent of the total number of votes.

Yar’Adua’s victory was trailed by so many credibility questions. Yar Ádua admitted that the elections were flawed and set up an electoral reform panel headed by Justice Muhammadu Uwais to hammer out solutions to the country’s perennial electoral challenges.

2011: Breathe of fresh air

For Nigerians, the 2011 election was the first time there was so much interest in the electoral process.

Even though no fewer than 20 parties took part, the race was dominated by Dr. Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and Buhari of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, CPC.Adjudged one of the most credible elections in Nigeria’s history, Jonathan won with 22,495,187 votes representing 58.89 per cent. His closest rival, Buhari scored 12,214,853 which was 31.98 percent of the total votes.

Jonathan rode on the back of support from most parts of the country, who opposed the manner he was being treated by a cabal in the seat of power before and after President Umaru Yar’Adua’s death.

However, before the election many northern leaders argued that the presidency should have been zoned to the North after eight years of Obasanjo from the South. Violence broke out in Bauchi and Kaduna after the polls and about 1000 persons including youth corpers on election duty were killed.

And since then, the country has weathered a wave of insurgency and terrorism from the Boko Haram sect with over 13,000 lives lost. Boko Haram captured most towns of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states until the latest onslaught of the Armed forces with support from Niger, Chad and Cameroun. Giving the huge human and material costs of combating the insurgency, today’s election must not be a do-or-die affair.

Those who will lose the election should not make the country ungovernable through violent change. The country will have credible and peaceful election if all the stakeholders do the needful in the interest of the country. The INEC and security agencies must be unbiased. Voters must come out to exercise their franchise and every vote must count. Elections have brought us problems in the past. May this not be so. May we not only say Amen to this but also ensure peace reigns.