By Dele Sobowale

“Never put all your eggs in one basket.” Anonymous.

That piece of advice for people all the way down in the value chain of the poultry industry was prelude to the modern management principle of always having Plan B. It was a lesson I learnt in 1970, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, immediately after securing a loan to purchase a house for my family. My former wife, like all the others, had depended on one plumber, admittedly the best in the County, to fix our pipes. The problem was that, this “genius of a plumber” was also everybody’s favourite fixer.

He became a “god” to all his customers. That was until one day, I stumbled upon another plumber, not so good, but proficient and sufficient for most purposes; and above all considerate of the feelings of all customers. I took him home to solve a problem which had driven us to distractions for three days, while waiting for “genius”.

He did it in less than one hour. “Number 2”, as he was soon called by several of our neighbours, whose plumbing problems he also fixed that day, soon relieved several households of the tyranny of “Genius”. It is a lesson which has remained with me for ever. And, anybody in charge of anything, household, council, club, state, company or nation, should always ensure that they never become totally reliant on one individual in the management of that part of their estate.

President Jonathan has not officially visited Akwa Ibom State as this column is being written on January 22, 2015. He will soon be there. Irrespective of whether he had gone there before this piece is published or after, one fact will be recorded on that day. The Akwa Ibom State he will visit, which was once regarded as one of his safest states in the 2015 elections, would have become a keenly contested territory. Once, almost hundred per cent PDP, the party now faces serious challenges from people, who until this year, were considered life-long PDP members.

Among these are Obong Victor Attah, former Governor and acclaimed Father of Akwa Ibom state (he and General Akpan (rtd) were the arrowheads of what became Akwa Ibom), as well as Chief Don Etiebet, former Petroleum Ministry Minister, both Trustees of the PDP, who have been totally sidelined and humiliated (to use the words of Dr Alex Ekwueme, the father of the PDP) on account of the total reliance of the PDP and Jonathan on the incumbent governor of the state. In addition to the two are other Elders of the state, who have decided to boycott the President’s visit. When it happens, it will be the first time, since 1998, for the real leaders of the PDP in the state to be absent when the party’s leader is visiting. It will also signal their collective intention to distance themselves from the campaign for Jonathan’s re-election.

Akpabio deserves no blame in this respect. Most politicians, if allowed, want total control; they are all “dictators” in varying degrees. Circumstances and their own personal inclinations determine how far they will go in the quest for ultimate control. Jonathan, who, incidentally, had shown no inclination towards acquisition of absolute power, or has been hampered by forces beyond his control, has become hostage to several governors and party leaders who are not so constrained. He had yielded the control of the party in their own domains. And, for three years, the arrangement had worked and has allowed him to concentrate on orchestrating his own second term bid – almost from the day after he was sworn-in in 2011.

Unfortunately, time, a powerful corrupting element in human affairs, kept ticking away. By January last year, each of the governors scheduled to vacate office on May 29, 2015, became a “lame duck” governor. Those who, hitherto, were cowed by their wide powers, and who were politically opposed to them, started to move against them. And, in states where the governor does not belong to a dominant ethnic group, like Delta and Akwa Ibom, the other ethnic groups combined to fight the governor.

Meanwhile, Jonathan and the PDP Central Working Committee, which had become hostage to the governors, were either not aware of the dilemma which confronted them, or believed in the assurances of the governors that they would deliver their states. But, delivering a state in 2011 is quite different from doing the same thing in 2015. In 2011, Jonathan’s endorsement was almost total in the Niger Delta. Even a dunce now knows that the same level of performance cannot be guaranteed – even in Bayelsa. As things stand, right now, the President will be extremely lucky to obtain a majority in Akwa Ibom State.

The vote will not be against Jonathan, as a person, but, to register the feelings of the people of Akwa Ibom State that the President had placed all his hopes in one man – who is no longer popular with the majority of the people belonging to the three ethnic groups.

Certainly, the stadium will be over-full. Money and residual political power will ensure that public servants, contractors and hired crowds will provide the illusion of acceptance. But, a person who is forced by powers beyond his control, to speak in support of the President, will tell the truth on Election Day. By then, Jonathan will be in Abuja waiting for the verdict – which might go against him. The alienated leaders are up in arms against a party they formed but which had been hijacked from them.