By Dele Sobowale

“The only battle that counts is the last battle” Richard Neustadt, in POWER AND PRESIDENTS.

Last week I ended this series by stating that President Jonathan does not know those behind the Boko Haram threat; neither does the National Security Adviser, NSA. They don’t know, not because they are incompetent or lack the will, as some have asserted but because we are engaged in a guerilla war in which the opponents of government forces know the JTF and Police but the forces cannot readily identify the terrorists.

And, they are difficult to identify because they dress, talk and generally behave like the rest of society and they live among us using us as human shields. That has been the nature of terrorist groups from time immemorial. In a pitched battle, the front line is known and the enemy can easily be separated from the civilian population.

In a guerilla war, everywhere is the battle front. That explains why the media, of whom I am a part, has also suddenly found itself in the trenches. Not surprising to me, we don’t know the enemy either because they move about in various disguises which the security forces cannot readily unmask. A suicide bomber, until he delivers his deadly message, looks like anybody else.

Furthermore, governments seldom receive any help in fishing out the culprits for three main reasons. First, most people who might know the terrorists but who are not members of the group are mortally afraid; they know too well the consequences to themselves if they are known, or even suspected to be government informers.

Second, many don’t trust government officials not to disclose their identity – especially as Jonathan admitted “there are Boko Harams in my government”. Why take a risk when the person to whom you report might be a sympathizer of Boko Haram? Third, some people actually want the government to fail and if this is the way, so be it. Most of the rest of us are just indifferent to the plight of government; we sit around, wring our hands and condemn. That has been the lot of governments caught in this trap whether self-induced or not.

I have stated these truths so bluntly because given our deep frustration and our fears, we want solutions, we want immediate results and most importantly, we want somebody to blame. The President is the first fall guy under the circumstances. But, in order to assign blame to him, with a clear conscience, we first of all need to write a script, even if a false one, claiming that “he knows the terrorists and their sponsors”. It is unfair to the President. Let me quickly provide two historical examples and we can close the subject.

The Tamil Tigers were a guerilla group terrorizing their own country for over twenty five years on account of a secessionist bid. During the time, more than four Presidents ruled the country; each one inheriting the problem until the leader of the terrorists was killed last year. That was when the bloodshed ended. Nobody asked the Presidents to resign just because they could not eradicate the rebels.

Similarly, Morocco in Africa fought several decades of ferocious war with terrorists before the rebellion was put down. Again, nobody asked the government to quit on account of that. The problem here to me is clear. We no longer teach or read history. If we do we would be able to undertake comparative analysis of events and base our utterances on better knowledge instead of sentiments.

Finally, don’t forget, I did not vote for Jonathan; you probably did against my advice. I shouldn’t be the one defending him; you should be the ones supporting him. But, the truth must be told. Jonathan and the NSA should not resign on account of Boko Haram –unless someone can point to a replacement who is guaranteed to bring the mayhem to an end in a short time. This time, as always, telling the bitter truth is not just a duty fulfilled; it is a pleasure.

Dear President; Try the Lyndon Johnson Option – 1
“Reputation of itself does not persuade, but it can make persuasion easier, or harder, or impossible”. Richard Neustadt in POWER AND PRESIDENTS

First of all, the question that should come to your mind is: who is Lyndon Johnson?  Well, he happens to be a late United States President, who came into power under almost similar circumstances like you, Mr. President. Johnson was Vice-President to President John Kennedy, 1917-1963, the 35th President of the United States when he was assassinated in November 1963 with over a year to go on his first term in office. Johnson, like you, was sworn in to complete Kennedy’s term.

Again, like you, he sought for election in his own right in 1964 and was overwhelmingly re-elected. Again, like you with your transformation agenda (whatever that means), Johnson embarked on his GREAT SOCIETY programme. There the similarities end.

Johnson’s programme was the most comprehensive in the nation’s history for a first term, and last term, president. Unlike you, by the end of the first year in office, several of Johnson’s initiatives were already being implemented. Yours remain just talk. Few Nigerians know what the whole “she-bang” is all about. Even your Ministers don’t know, so everything anyone does, however foolish, is presented as part of the transformation agenda.

The loquacious Minister of Power promised 5,000MW of power by December 2011; he failed; he announces that his next muddle is part of the agenda. Two Ministers, Finance and Petroleum, attempted to bamboozle Nigerians that there was N1.3 trillion subsidy; it turned out there was over N1.5 trillion fraud. They also told us the SURE document, resulting from this attempted swindle, was part of the transformation agenda also.

In two years on the saddle, Johnson had established a blazing record of achievements – many of which survived till today. In two years, your government has failed to deliver more electricity consistently than it met there. And pensioners are now farther away from payday than before – but civil servants, under you, smile all the way to the bank and their wardrobes – with loot!! Try opening the newspapers any day Sir. From the front page, it is scandal and mayhem. That was not the way Johnson did it. That is why America is great. Just two years, Sir!

Yet for all his social and economic achievements, Johnson found himself with a nation divided by the Viet Nam war and by racial unrest. Violence consumed American cities and president himself became the central topic on the national agenda. His decision on the war, made with good intentions, became one of the major points for violent civil unrest.

Eventually, a point was reached when Johnson, although entitled to go for a second term, and would have clinched his party’s ticket, had to decide whether to go or not. To his everlasting glory, Johnson decided and announced in unequivocal terms that he would not seek re-election.