I  STILL don’t get the feeling that Nigerians realise how bad things have become for the economy and that we are facing a future of slow growth. The change mantra is going to be hard and painful no matter what the government and politicians say.

This prognosis is pessimistic and rightly so.  Crude Oil prices, Nigeria’s major export is down by over 55%.The US is aiming to change its law to allow it export crude oil. Soon that will be the case and the consequences on prices will be catastrophic. Oil now sells for 48 dollars. This price is temporary. Further declines are expected. Major oil companies are cutting budget, scaling back projects and downsizing work force.  Ninety percent of export from Nigeria is on this one commodity with 70 percent of government revenue expected from it.

Governments across Nigeria have undertaken deep budgetcuts—some states including federal government have paid or in arrears of many months of salary payment requiring bailout package—in addition there has seen an 18 percentage fall in value of naira since 2014 and raising inflation to 9.2 percentage. There is hardly any mitigating circumstance ahead. We don’t have any cushion anywhere to cover our fiscal deficit. All those (APC chieftains in particular) who are hoping President Buhari’s campaign promises will be fulfilled had better wake up( the opposition PDP and others opposed to the ruling party are most likely going to make political capital of this). The truth is that President Buhari will struggle to meet a small percentage of his promises over the next four years. As a matter of fact, if he manages to achieve 40 percent of his promises, he should be re-elected.

The money to fund aggressive development that Nigeria’s need is simply not there. How much capital his government is able to attract to bridge the gap in infrastructure spending is unclear. The President Jonathan privatisation programme of the power sector is dodgy and has not yielded the kind of improvement Nigerians expected. Nigeria economy is still largely a generator powered economy. President Buhari may likely seek a review of Jonathan privatisation programme. We have to wait until he unveils his economic plan. One major step President Buhari should take on board is progressive taxation. Time has come for Nigeria’s super rich who have made so much from the system, to pay more to support the system. Taxation as a major source of income for the government should be treated with much seriousness, than has otherwise been in case.

Business cost remains high rendering local manufactured goods uncompetitive. Cheap foreign, especially, Chinese imported products continue to dominate the local market. Demand by Nigerians for imported products appears not to be slackening. Tougher measures beyond the CBN policy of excluding some catergories of products from accessing foreign exchange are needed. The transportation sector is in crisis. Roads and railway transportation is in crying need of massive investment, which if properly packaged under the circumstance can be private sector driven. However, Nigeria’s experiment with the Public Private sector Partnership (PPP) model has not been such a huge success. Yet, without fixing transportation, it is hard to think of development.

Lagos as a port city is in need of decongestion. Tin Can and Apapa sea ports are stretched to a breaking point. The offsite infrastructure that supports these ports is choked or not available.

Nigeria needs to energise new port cities of Warri or Port Harcourt. Lagos cannot take any more of the pressure. The economy is suffering because of this choke hold. If a calculation is done on the average losses incurred by businesses and individuals trapped perennially in Lagos traffic, the inefficiencies is horrendous. This is no way to run a modern economy.

Buhari talks about his energy level and memory to recall small details and really at 72 that is an issue of importance (surprisingly his admission did not raise serious debate/concern over his ability to do the job). He therefore needs to find the right team with the right balance to tackle some of the huge challenges of today. And as he slowly works his way through the rut he met in the system, he is losing time. For everyday there is no articulation of direction, the country is on a pause. Yet, the country cannot afford a longer pause.

Now if the data by the National Bureau for Statistics is an indicator of the situation with unemployment, then President Buhari is facing more grim problems.  Current NBS estimates put the percentage of Nigerians looking for work at 24.6%. That is 13.4 million of the 54.6 million active labourforce that needs to find jobs. This is apart from the estimated 3.7 million persons that enter the job market annually. The unemployment situation has a reached a crisis point. Young educated Nigerians are unemployed for years, living with their parents in to the 30s and becoming stale and of no use to employers of labour eventually.   The question is which sector should the country focus on and how should that be done. So far there has been no strategy in this regard.

Often Nigerian politicians and policy makers talk about agriculture as the preferred sector, that is true to the extent that we are looking at our lingering inability to feed ourselves in the short run. In the middle to long term, agriculture can scarcely be the sector to accommodate the large unemployed labour force despite its low entry level.Government as a key enabler must reduce risk to those who even undertake to venture into agro-business.

Agriculture without value addition will not amount to much. This is where electricity becomes an important sector, President Buhari should focus upon it like a laser beam. Without electricity nothing will work. Food security will not be successful. Stating this fact requires no great leap of imagination. Energy is the foundation of the modern economy. Nigeria governments over the years have not found a way to resolve this issue. The country continues to suffer. Serious countries all over the world go beyond the pale if the need arises to protect their energy security. Nigeria sleeps walk over energy issues.

Like many things that we have in abundance, the country has not paid enough attention to energy diversification. Policy makers talk glibly about promoting renewable energy option in the energy mix, yet not much has happened. We have abundance of sun and we have access to a long coastline and other estuaries for wind power and hydropower to mention a few. Renewable energy is faster to decouple and can easily play significant role in the country’s energy mix. Gas based electricity system is fine, we know it is cheaper but somehow the country has not managed to tackle the incessant sabotage and commercial gridlock it has locked itself into with the oil companies, which is why Nigeria has its gas flared or liquefied for export. While the country struggles to meet its energy needs. Something is not right somewhere. President Buhari has to look at the energy problem and adopt a broad approach that embraces all viable solution. Renewable energy solution is just one such important solution.

I hope President Buhari succeeds and this is beyond partisan consideration. The average Nigerian deserves to in their life time live in a country that is economically successful.The APC government has a historic chance to prove that this wish can be done. But so far the auguries are not good. I hope I am proved wrong.

Mr. Paul Odili a journalist, wrote from Asaba, Delta State.