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Solar investments need data-driven risk models to prevent asset failure – Expert

Solar investments need data-driven risk models to prevent asset failure – Expert

By Etop Ekanem

As Nigeria accelerates its energy transition, a leading materials engineer has warned that an overlooked hazard could cut short the lifespan of multi-million dollar solar assets. 

In a statement recently, Trust Emma Abajuo, founder of US-based Trelk Global Services LLC and a doctoral researcher at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said soil corrosion poses a silent risk to ground-mounted solar projects. 

He noted that while most operations and maintenance plans focus on panels and inverters, steel pile anchoring arrays are often ignored. 

The expert stated further that these piles corrode below grade, with the most aggressive attack occurring in the near-surface zone where mechanical stress is highest. 

“The steel piles driven into the soil to support ground-mounted arrays corrode below grade, most aggressively in the near-surface zone where mechanical stress concentrates,” Abajuo stated. 

“For developers underwriting a twenty-five-year asset and for insurers pricing its risk in Nigeria and across the globe, the industry’s inability to accurately predict that corrosion is a gap that can no longer be deferred.” 

Abajuo, with years of experience in the sector, has previously led the delivery of off-grid solar-plus-storage systems worth over $4 million. 

He stated that many current corrosion prediction models are outdated and unreliable. 

noting that most rely on buried-pipeline studies from nearly a century ago. 

He said, “They do not reflect site-specific conditions such as shifting moisture, soil chemistry, or stray direct current from PV systems. 

“A plant can operate with corrosive leakage flowing into the soil below the alarm threshold, returning to source through any convenient metallic path, including the plant’s own foundations,” Abajuo warned. 

“A sustained current near 20 mA will consume roughly 0.18 kg of steel over a year. Concentrated at a single location, that loss can compromise structural integrity well inside the asset’s design life.” 

To address the gap, Abajuo said that his organisation, Trelk Global Services, is developing a life-prediction model and a soil-corrosion severity index. 

“The venture was recently admitted into the U.S. National Science Foundation I-Corps IdeaLaunch Lab. It has also secured $875,000 in investment pledges.”

For Nigeria’s growing solar market, Abajuo is urging a data-driven approach. He recommends “design discrimination” — applying protective coatings or cathodic protection only on high-severity sites. This can reduce costs in lower-risk locations. 

“Specifying this at the design stage is far cheaper than excavating and remediating foundations once an array is energised and generating revenue,” he said. 

Abajuo currently serves as a voting member of the IEEE P762 Working Group, which is revising international power generation reliability standards. He was also selected for the 2024 cohort of the AMPP Member Leadership Development Programme. 

He urges Nigerian solar developers, financiers, and underwriters to integrate foundation-corrosion data into project planning now. Early action, he said, will position the market ahead of global shifts toward predictive infrastructure standards.