THE  violence in the North is not surprising. That half of our society is perpetually on tinderbox; the result of widespread poverty coupled with mass illiteracy and, in too many cases, religious fanaticism.

Any society with such a delicate mix is prone to violence, especially violent protests. It takes just little nudge to set the ‘ball rolling’ and that was provided  this time when  a disgruntled presidential candidate said that the poll was rigged and had earlier given  hints to his followers  to take to the street when they hear  the word.

Exactly what Mohammed Buhari did when he said he would not go to court if he lost the presidential election. It was implied here that he was going to try self-help as his earlier recourse to the judiciary for redemption had not amounted to much.  His vice presidential candidate, Tunde Bakare, also promised a ‘wild wild North’ if the PDP rigged the election and their party, the CPC was not declared the winner.

Another top party member, Buba Galadima, further validated this thinking when he, incredulously, said the CPC was going to win at least 80 percent of the presidential vote, or there would be trouble. According to him: “If the party’s presidential flag-bearer, General Buhari does not poll 80 percent of the total votes, then the election would be deemed to be rigged”.

These comments were made weeks before the presidential election and showed the party’s unusual buoyancy and sense of entitlement, the feeling that victory was theirs for the taking, and that anything short of absolute victory by the CPC was because it was cheated.

So when the results started coming in and they didn’t go as the CPC overlords had forecasted, there was the predictable violence.

And as usual Southerners, or those who look like them, were the main victims of the misguided youths protesting the inability to get their mentor into Aso Rock for the umpteenth time. Houses were burnt, Churches destroyed while many people, with flesh and blood running in their veins, were killed. It appears that corps members were particularly targeted because of their role as INEC ad hoc staff. There were tears and blood and the gnashing of teeth. A wild, wild North.

This was the North apparently envisaged by Buhari, Bakare and Galadima when they predicted trouble if their party did not win the presidential poll, or even more audaciously, win 80 percent of the vote. Thankfully reality is different from the dreamland which many CPC leaders apparently live in.

The party could only scrape 31 percent of the presidential vote, almost all of which it garnered in core Northern states, lacking the required spread and majority of vote to win the poll. Having been declared the loser, the CPC team naturally claimed the election was rigged.

It is noteworthy that even before the election held, Buhari had alleged rigging, saying just after he voted in Daura, Katsina State that aeroplanes were being used to supply thumb printed ballot papers across the states. He supplied no proof of this, except that a night before he saw airplanes moving around!

The word ‘rigging’ was the cue the thousands of Northern youths who took to the streets needed to hear to visit perdition on several cities. Of course, there were no bases for the violent protests, for even if the presidential election was won by the PDP with a sleight of the hand, killing corps members, burning churches and acting like barbarians were not going to change the result.

But the courts could. Buhari had however made a strategic mistake when he said he wouldn’t seek redress in the courts this time, and besides he told his followers while sobbing like a baby that this was his last presidential run and if they didn’t get him in this time, they should forget it.  Hysteria set in when it became obvious that the dream of a Buhari presidency may not be achieved in this life time.

All these created the tensed atmosphere in the North. The irony of it all is that this was the best presidential elections in a decade, at least. What we have had until now were shams of elections, conducted in a do-or-die atmosphere, where the incumbent had vowed to win at all cost.

This time, President Goodluck Jonathan asked his party members not to rig for him and also promised to step aside if he lost. Even if he did not mean what he said, his talk helped to create, in Nigerian lingo, a conducive environment for the poll.

The President then matched action with words by not interfering with the conduct of the National Assembly elections by INEC. This led to the loss of leading PDP members such as Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of ex-President Obasanjo; Dimeji Bankole, Speaker of the House of Representatives and Senator Iyiola Omisore, Chairman of the powerful  Appropriation Committee of the Senate. In another life where a certain Maurice Iwu was the INEC Chairman such big fishes would not lose elections. It would have been a walkover for the PDP.

The conduct of largely free and fair legislative elections turned the public opinion tide in favour of President Jonathan, who many people started seeing as a good guy in a bad party. For Buhari, the elections exposed the soft underbelly of the CPC, which could only manage to win six senatorial seats.

The conclusion was that Buhari and his fellow travellers were over-rated.  Until the NASS elections the BB team dominated the blogosphere with their message of change and transformation. After the legislative elections it was obvious to many that the Buhari team could not possibly win the election unless there was an alliance between the CPC and the ACN, the major party in the South West. Both parties bungled the alliance talks and went into the election solo.

The result was as predictable. The CPC did very well in the North West and North East, while the PDP won the other four regions.  It is noteworthy that even if the CPC had got the majority of the total votes, Buhari would still not have been declared President-elect as his party would fail to get the constitutionally required 1/3 of the votes in 24 states. At best a victory for Buhari would have triggered a run-off.

But that did not happen because the PDP competed well in states that the CPC won, getting huge chunks of the vote. The cards were stacked against Buhari and any objective assessment of the poll would show that he lost the election fair and square. His CPC lacked the structures to compete with the PDP behemoth in many states and so could not adequately mobilize supporters to vote. In many states in the South, especially South South and South East, the party was virtually absent. Pray how could it have won?

Mr. JULIUS OGUNRO, a public affairs analyst,wrote from Abuja.