Chukwunonso Ekesiobi

On the 19th of April 2020, a friend from Lagos called me. He sounded frustrated and his anger was allocated, in equal measure, to two sources. First, the coronavirus for keeping virtually everything in the country on hold and, secondly, to the Federal Government’s handling of the exercise, especially for adding two weeks to the initial lockdown it imposed on two states and the country’s capital, Abuja.

I was startled by his complaints as this was someone who, prior COVID-19 sit-at-home order, always moaned about the daily hustle and bustle routine, combined with stressful early hours and late nights on the road. He always greeted every public holiday with relief and praying for the possibility of weekends to be extended by a day or two to catch a breather.

Well, he is experiencing the reality of his dreams and has had his full. Be careful of what you wish for, one may say to this my friend, but he certainly was not in the mood to catch a joke.

Considering the recent comments by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) boss who stated that the virus will eventually spread to every state in the country, new states are beginning to record index cases. Include the not so cheering news that we have crossed the 1000 mark for confirmed infections, and hopes for an end to the four weeks (five weeks for Lagos) lockdown appears to be dashed and frustrations at the first extension could escalate in the event of a further postponement. Were we prepared to move from valentine blues to quarantine reggae in a matter of weeks? How much longer can Nigerians sacrifice and hold their breath underwater? Can we afford to sing “everything na double-double” at home during the lockdown? To begin with, while people like my friend grumble about staying indoors and the possibility of another extension, other Nigerians leave their homes daily to sacrifice their time at great risk for their sake. Hence, the NCDC, doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers deserve commendation for the professional and selfless discharge of this divine assignment.

To gain more perspective, I curiously created a social media poll to feel the pulse of a wider pool of friends by asking whether or not they would welcome and comply with another lockdown extension or go with a third alternative of a partial lockdown. The results were not surprising. From a total of 336 participants, the results were 167 (49.7 percent), 111 (33.3 percent), and 58 (17 percent) for ending the lockdown, partial lockdown and extending the lockdown respectively. I acknowledge sampling shortcomings and limitations for generalization purposes and, although the virus is not active on social media, this result hints that people are tired and demand an immediate resolution of the pandemic. This is the crux of the situation at hand.

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Deciding the best approach for the country to address the crisis is not as easy as responding to an online poll or choosing what to wear or eat, watching a movie, or telenovela on TV among others. For a virus with unprecedented consequences, it is no surprise that the immediate reaction for most countries was to impose a lockdown (of varying degrees) to contain the spread.  The “small but mighty” invisible enemy, unfortunately, brought the machinery of most world economies to a halt. Also, the reality of globalization evidenced by increased international trade, frequent cross-border movement of persons, and greater interdependency among nations has ensured that practically no country is spared. From crashing stock and oil markets to business shutdowns, job losses, hunger, and despair; every nation has a story to tell and issues to deal with.

In the Nigerian context, the state of affairs is more complex and controversial. The complexity stems from the fact that from everywhere you look, we were not prepared for what was coming. Predictably, COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of the nation and the risk of greater susceptibility to external shocks. For a country with Africa’s largest population, bubbling with energy and dynamism as well as her rich natural assets, we can only reflect on missed opportunities to build adequate buffers (excess crude accounts, sovereign wealth funds, etc), invest in quality, affordable, accessible healthcare and education at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, diversify economic activities away from petrodollar revenue, upgrading critical infrastructure in power, technology and transportation, providing social protection for the unemployed and vulnerable group, availability of an up-to-date database of Nigerians across socio-economic and socio-demographic spheres,  and a viable leadership recruitment process backed by sound electoral systems to put square pegs in deserved positions.

The COVID-19 struck and there is nowhere to run or hide for the big and small, rich and poor, rural and urban, north and south, Christian and Muslim, leadership and opposition. The present controversy lies in taking the crucial next step. It goes beyond deciding whether to end or extend the lockdown (which has bought the leadership some needed thinking time). Such binary positions do not apply in this case. The decision to either salvage the health of Nigerians or the wellbeing of the economy is not a clear-cut zero-sum game. This is not the basic trade-off between inflation and unemployment or exchange rate adjustment versus economic growth taught in undergraduate economics class. This trade-off is dicey and needs to soak in the arguments of the “end” and “extend” advocates to prescribe necessitous solutions.

For the “end” group, their worry lies in the fate of the economy through a prolonged lockdown with no definite timeline. To this group (comprised mainly of organized labour, economists, politicians, business owners, and ordinary Nigerians struggling to survive), the lockdown costs outweigh the benefits for the economy. The chances of surviving two successive recessions in a short time interval will be a gamble of colossal penalties. They posit that the lockdown method is costly when compared to our national revenue (minus corruption and looting). For that reason, Nigeria’s receipts are incapable of sustaining the feeble economy and the large palliative dependants for long. Besides, our recovery and mortality data have so far not been as devastating as figures from Europe and the United States. Stretching the lockdown would, therefore, be risky and unhealthy for job availability and security, potential breakdown of law and order, private sector investment and productivity, and overall macroeconomic activity.

For the “extend” group of doctors, health scientists, and medical experts, the first responsibility is to save a life. They re-echo the premium and sanctity of human lives at all costs. For this group, the pandemic outbreak is yet to fully manifest, and hastily restarting economic activities could spell doom for the country. In their view, the lockdown may need an additional extension to allow more time for intensifying social distancing, contact tracing, treatment, and recoveries as well as expanding testing capability and acquisition of more medical equipment. Also, given the exponential circulation of the virus and rising cases of community transmission (the weekly moving average data of infected persons confirms this), reopening the economy is tantamount to inviting a second wave of infections with monumental effects on our frail health sector. In the event of this, we would revert to longer shutdowns to the detriment of the economy.

Interestingly, the trade-offs do not end there for the country. We have the budgetary trade-offs of sectoral allocations that have not favoured health and education spending. Then there is the health and food security trade-off of a prolonged lockdown with threats of food shortages. This is closely followed by the health and education trade-off currently disrupting learning activities alongside the on-going strike in tertiary institutions. Even within the health sector, there are trade-offs on how to allocate the meager funds to where they are needed most. A likely positive trade-off can be found between health and environment interactions since staying at home means less pollution and cleaner air. Also, kindly permit the addition of existing challenges plaguing the country before COVID-19, like climate change and desertification, insecurity crisis, internal displacements of persons, and a large population of poor, miserable, and vulnerable persons.

It is difficult to contest that Nigeria is not buoyant enough to tolerate a protracted lockdown neither can the threat of mass infections be ignored. Thus, the decision to end or extend is not a trade-off, a position recently supported by the chairs of the World Health Organisation and the International Monetary Fund in a recent joint publication in The Telegraph. They conceive that “the course of the global health crisis and the fate of the global economy are inseparably intertwined. Thus, protecting public health and putting people back to work go hand-in-hand.” This suggests that health and economic interventions should be complementary and not subject to trade-offs or substitutions. Finding this delicate middle ground to balance both intentions will be fundamental to the survival of many developing countries (including Nigeria).

The coming weeks, months and years will be very vital for the future of this country. Similar to an Igbo saying that “uche ka eji eso ijiji dabere n’apka amu” which translates that one needs to apply wisdom in handling an insect that perched on the scrotum. The required wisdom to navigate this uncertainty does not allow for weak, delegatory, or incompetent leadership. There is little room for error. The absence of a “one-size-fits-all” approach signals the challenges involved in implementing “do as I do” foreign measures.

Instead, we need to “glocalise” our response by observing foreign experiences, learn from their successes and mistakes, and initiate domestic remedies that are broad, timely, intelligent, objective, and inclusive. Rent-seekers, cheerleaders, and praise-singers should be relegated to allow our best hands and brains across disciplines to guide the government on the right path.

The world as we know it is adjusting from an old order to a new version in the wake of the pandemic. Nigeria must not be left behind as exemplified by another Igbo adage of note “E bugharịa egwu e bugharịa ọnọdụ”, which means that when the dancers shift position, the spectators also adjust their seats. The realignment of the global economy provides a unique opportunity for leaders to brace up and be counted. The sort of leaders with longsighted vision, guts, and morale to go from ordinary to unorthodox to rescue the nation and safeguard guard against expected future shocks.

The difficult choice to end or extend the lockdown or adopt a partial one beckons fora coordinated intervention by leadership at all levels and Nigerians to do what is necessary even though unpopular. Matching words with commensurate action should follow to restore public trust and earn cooperation. Enough of the ethnic, religious, and parochial sentiments that have held the nation back for the past 60 years. We must learn our lessons and decide whether to utilise this period as a turning point to greatness or a tipping point to an irredeemable catastrophe. I pray we choose the former – our lives and economy depend on it. Stay safe.

Chukwunonso Ekesiobi – Department of Economics, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Anambra State

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