I am SO tired of people insisting that Tinubu is a master tactician and super-smart bully who has crippled opposition parties so skillfully that there is absolutely no chance of him being defeated in 2027.

This view is held by many individuals who are pro-Tinubu, anti-Tinubu or sitting on the fence; and the tone of voice in which their prediction is uttered depends on whether the amateur soothsayer in question happens to be a presidential supporter (in which case the tone is gleeful), a presidential opponent (in which case, the tone is gloomy) or a neutral observer (in which case, the tone is indifferent).

I can see why all of the above are so optimistic (if friends) or so pessimistic (if foes) or so resigned (if impartial spectators).

Yes, the oft-repeated mantra – “Tinubu is not Jonathan” – IS true, in the sense that Tinubu will, unlike Jonathan, ruthlessly weaponise his incumbency and fight tooth and nail to keep his job at all costs.

It is also true that Tinubu is a ferociously focused alpha male and courageous gambler who succeeded in securing the APC nomination in 2022, despite odds that were massively stacked against him.

The then president, Buhari, was very reluctant to hand over to Tinubu. The then vice president, Osinbajo, was very popular in civilized circles and competing with Tinubu for the party ticket. The then Senate president, Lawan, was also a significant rival. The then APC chairman, Adamu, also wanted Tinubu to be floored at the party primaries.

But he still managed to trounce his powerful adversaries, become the party flagbearer and triumphantly declared himself the winner of the dicey election that took place a few months later.

OK so he was accused of influencing delegates and  electoral shenanigans. But his fans will assure anyone who is ready to listen that he won fair and square; and the bottom line is that he is now the Giant Of Africa’s head of state.

However, being a clever and cunning go-getter who understands Nigeria’s weaknesses does not guarantee him success forever. And I urge those who do not want him to win the next election to quit their feeble defeatism and stop carrying on as if the result is a done deal.

“A  week  is  a  long  time  in  politics”  is  a  famous  quote  that has been attributed to Harold  Wilson, who was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1964-70 and 1974-6.

It boils down to an acknowledgement that political situations can change dramatically in very short periods of time because of drastic circumstantial shifts.

Long story short, political landscapes are uncontrollable and can be so volatile that a politician’s fortunes and career prospects can suddenly change overnight because of unforeseen developments.

Even before Trump humiliated Tinubu by pointing out his administration’s failure to stop killings in Northern Nigeria, Tinubu was skating on thin ice and constantly under attack because of government scandals, security headaches, economic problems and so on.

As an anonymous sage puts it: In the fast-paced world of politics, what seems stable today can unravel tomorrow and this notion has become increasingly relevant in the age of social media where news spreads rapidly and public opinion can change in an instant.

All over the world and throughout history, there have been countless examples of political scenarios changing beyond recognition in a matter of days or hours even.

And if a week is a long time in politics, a year is even longer.

When Peter Obi was Atiku’s running mate in 2019, he didn’t make much of an impact. When he broke away from Atiku and the PDP in 2022 and ran on a Labour Party platform, he very quickly became a superstar.

A politician I know in Rivers State told me how shocked he and his colleagues were by the number of people who voted for Obi.

“It was like a tsunami,” he said, shaking his head. “We couldn’t believe it. We had to take extreme measures to suppress Obi’s votes because our then boss had instructed us to throw our weight behind Tinubu”.

The point I am making is this: If Obi could appear from almost nowhere to score victories across the South, as well as in Lagos, Abuja and a handful of Northern locations, who says that Obi or another opponent of Tinubu cannot pull off another similar surprise in 2027?

Might does not always win the day. Tinubu has been weakened by the Trumpian intervention and security crisis. And there is no guarantee that he won’t be further weakened in the months to come.

In other words, anything can happen in 2027. And the one thing that will guarantee victory for Tinubu is voters who want change being brainwashed    into concluding that they cannot have change because Tinubu is some kind of invincible deity and that supporting alternative candidates will be a foolish waste of time.

DONU’S WORLD

I have a YouTube channel. It’s called DONU’S WORLD.

https://youtube.com/@donukogbara?si=bBm_IPdFZ_wUyKYq

NIGERIA UNFILTERED – spicy commentaries on Naija issues – appears every Wednesday, while DONU’S WEEK appears on Fridays and is international as well as local and covers a mish-mash of soft and tough issues around my personal life, my work and my worldview.

Two days ago, on Nigeria Unfiltered, I criticized Nnamdi Kanu but wondered why he is receiving harsher treatment than Northern terrorists who have literally gotten away with murder.  

Please check out Donu’s World videos a week. I would love to hear your opinions and any constructive criticisms you may have to offer. And I will be very grateful if you “like”, subscribe and share!

RESPONSES TO  [email protected]  or to 0805 404 6887. (TEXT ONLY). PLEASE NOTE THAT UNLESS YOU REQUEST ANONYMITY, YOUR EMAIL OR TEXT MAY BE PUBLISHED WITH YOUR NAME AND CONTACT DETAILS ATTACHED

Please listen to my podcast AfricaHere&NOW.

YouTube.com/@AfricaHereAndNOWPodcast

http://Www.africahereandnow.com

It can also be accessed via Spotify and Apple podcasts