By Jude Azai

Introduction

Foreign policy decisions made by global superpowers often have far-reaching consequences, particularly for developing economies such as Nigeria. The United States, as one of the world’s most influential nations, plays a crucial role in shaping global economic dynamics through trade agreements, diplomatic engagements, immigration policies, and international aid programs.

This is the era of “deal making” in international diplomacy and having competitive advantage in certain things can present any country with the right “cards on the table.” During his tenure as the 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), Donald Trump pursued an “America First” policy, significantly impacting global trade, immigration, and international relations (Nye, 2019). His reelection as the 47th President in 2025 further strengthens his stance on this policy, which will continue to influence Nigeria’s economic landscape in profound ways. While some U.S. foreign policies present economic challenges for Nigeria, they also create opportunities that can be strategically leveraged to foster sustainable economic growth. This paper explores these impacts, providing actionable recommendations for Nigeria and its citizens to mitigate risks while capitalizing on emerging prospects.

Impact of U.S. Foreign Policies on Nigeria’s Economy

Immigration Policies and the Nigerian Workforce

On his resumption to office for the second time, President Donald Trump signed a number ofExecutive Orders one of which is Executive Order 14159 titled “Protecting the American People Against Invasion” marking a significant shift in U.S. immigration policy. Among other things, the order mandates the comprehensive enforcement of existing immigration laws against all inadmissible and removable noncitizens. This includes expanding the use of expedited removal processes, allowing for the swift deportation of individuals without court hearings.

While Executive Order 14159 does not explicitly target specific countries, its stringent immigration measures could have indirect effects on nations like Nigeria. With reduced immigration opportunities, Nigerian nationals seeking to immigrate to the U.S. may face heightened scrutiny and increased barriers, potentially limiting opportunities for work, education, and family reunification. The economic implications with a decrease in Nigerian immigrants could lead to reduced remittances sent back home, impacting Nigeria’s economy, which relies significantly on these funds.

Despite the challenges, there are avenues through which both the U.S. and Nigeria can derive benefits. On of which could be stronger bilateral engagements which can strengthen diplomatic dialogues to address mutual concerns, ensuring that legitimate travelers and immigrants are distinguished from security threats. This can create the atmosphere for a new frontier in diplomatic relations between Nigeria and the US. This can greatly lead to economic prosperity through collaboration as both countries can explore partnerships in sectors such as technology, agriculture, and education, fostering economic growth and creating job opportunities that may reduce the impetus for migration. Nigeria can actually seek to enhance its space exploration potentials under President Trump because of the value that SpaceX can provide through Elon Musk. These gains can be monumental for Nigeria and foster great prospects for prosperity in both countries. Additionally, the U.S. can assist Nigeria in enhancing its border security and immigration management systems, contributing to global security efforts and fostering goodwill.President Trump is out to make deals with the right international partners. He has demonstrated his willingness and openness to doing so time and again and it will be in Nigeria’s strategic interest to be an active partner.

All of the above can trigger new ways of engaging in today’s diplomatic space and by fostering innovation in key industries such as technology, manufacturing, and agriculture, Nigeria can retain its skilled workforce while strengthening its economy. Encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) in high-growth sectors and implementing business-friendly policies can stimulate job creation, reduce reliance on emigration, and enhance national productivity. Moreover, leveraging supply chain and logistics management principles to optimize local production and distribution networks can ensure that industries remain competitive and resilient.

Trade Policies and Economic Diversification

Trump’s approach to international trade is characterized by a preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral deals. While Nigeria is not a direct target of U.S. trade tariffs, the ripple effects of these policies affect global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, Nigeria’s main export.

Nigeria’s overdependence on oil exports leaves it vulnerable to market fluctuations. To build economic resilience, Nigeria must accelerate efforts to diversify its economy. Supporting local refining capacity will not only reduce import dependency but also create jobs and stabilize fuel prices. Expanding industries such as entertainment, agriculture, solid minerals, and manufacturing will generate alternative revenue streams.

Strategically, Nigeria can strengthen trade partnerships with the European Union, China, and other emerging economies to counterbalance potential negative impacts of U.S. policies. Furthermore, supply chain and logistics management can enhance efficiency in non-oil sectors by optimizing procurement, inventory management, and distribution networks, ensuring Nigerian products reach international markets more competitively.

The Loss of U.S. Foreign Aid and Its Economic Ramifications

As of 2025, Nigeria receives approximately $602.95 million in aid from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). These funds support critical sectors, including healthcare, security, and economic development. However, Trump’s administration has repeatedly emphasized reducing foreign aid, putting this funding at risk. The immediate consequences of this reduction include:

Healthcare Disruptions: Programs for HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, maternal health, and reproductive services rely heavily on USAID funding. A funding cut would lead to shortages of essential medicines, increased disease outbreaks, and higher mortality rates.

Job Losses: Many Nigerians employed in USAID-funded projects including healthcare workers, contractors, and community volunteers may lose their jobs, exacerbating unemployment and economic instability.

Halted Development Projects: Key infrastructure projects related to water management, clean energy, and governance reforms may face delays or cancellations, slowing Nigeria’s progress toward sustainable development goals.

Despite these challenges, the reduction in U.S. aid also presents an opportunity for Nigeria to build self-reliance. Strengthening local industries, enhancing public-private partnerships, and investing in innovative funding mechanisms can compensate for reduced external assistance. Engaging the Nigerian diaspora for investments and development projects can also serve as an alternative funding source. Additionally, leveraging supply chain principles in the healthcare sector, such as better procurement planning and inventory optimization, can improve efficiency and minimize the impact of funding shortfalls.

U.S.-China Relations and Nigeria’s Strategic Positioning

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has indirect consequences for Nigeria. As China’s largest trading partner in Africa, Nigeria benefits from Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and technology. However, tensions between the U.S. and China create economic uncertainties that could affect Nigerian trade dynamics and foreign direct investment.

To navigate this landscape, Nigeria must adopt a balanced foreign policy approach, maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with both superpowers. Negotiating fair trade agreements, ensuring transparency in foreign investments, and prioritizing local industrial development will enhance economic stability.

Leveraging Opportunities Amidst Challenges

Despite the challenges posed by America’s policies, Nigeria can take proactive steps to transform these difficulties into opportunities:

1. Enhancing Regional Trade: Actively participating in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will open up new markets for Nigerian goods and services, reducing reliance on the U.S.

2. Building Diplomatic Bridges: Strengthening relations with emerging economies such as Singapore and Malaysia can provide new trade and investment opportunities.

3. Supply Chain Optimization: If demand and supply dictate economic activity, then a robust supply chain and logistics framework must be in place to serve are the literal “heart beat” of its success. Implementing robust supply chain and logistics strategies can improve the efficiency of Nigerian industries, ensuring reliable access to raw materials, reducing production costs, and enhancing global competitiveness.

4. Promoting Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Encouraging startups and small businesses, particularly in technology and renewable energy, will drive economic diversification and self-reliance.

5. Sustainable Development Focus: Prioritizing investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and infrastructure development can create long-term economic stability and resilience.

Conclusion

The United States’ foreign policies, particularly under the “America First” framework, pose both challenges and opportunities for Nigeria. While immigration restrictions, trade policies, and foreign aid reductions present significant hurdles, they also highlight the urgent need for Nigeria to strengthen its domestic economy, invest in innovation, and enhance trade partnerships.

By applying supply chain and logistics management principles to streamline operations across key sectors, Nigeria can reduce inefficiencies, increase economic resilience, and position itself as a formidable player in global markets. Strategic policymaking, public-private collaboration, and proactive engagement with both the U.S. and other global partners will ensure Nigeria not only survives but thrives in this evolving economic landscape. The future is one of adaptation, resilience, and opportunity, and Nigeria must seize the moment to redefine its economic destiny.

I’d add that Nigeria may need to learn from countries like Singapore on how to seize opportunities. This will be a conversation for another time.

Azai writes from Syracuse University, New York