By Debo Onifade

Youths in Nigeria are not homogeneous. While many northern Nigerian youths get their news largely from transistor radios (BBC Hausa, VOA Hausa, etc), a significant percentage of youths in the south get their news from social media and television. Interestingly, the southern youths often feel albeit wrongly that they have superior political knowledge when compared with northern youths. To understand how information or news can significantly shape our political ideas, just compare the news that North Koreans have access to about the United States with what South Koreans watch daily about the United States. I bet you would agree that youths in both countries have totally different views about the United States. 

Even in southern Nigeria, youths are not homogeneous. Middle-class youths often harshly judge the poor youths who don’t trust any political candidate and would rather sell their votes. On a personal note, when a family man that has not eaten good food in the last few weeks is suddenly gifted with N5,000 or N10,000 by politicians, I see no wrong in him accepting the money to prepare nice food for his family. After all, that man doesn’t even trust any politician, given that we are rarely able to predict who will be good after election. My position is this – collect the money but vote your conscience. If his conscience means voting for the politician that donated the cash to him, that’s his choice but if his conscience is the other good politician that is not sharing cash, that is a better choice. 

A critical question often asked is “how do we know who is good?” This is not my objective in this article, but I will dwell on it before I conclude my writing. But first, I want to establish that the term “youth” in Nigeria is vague, and the group is too heterogeneous to rely on for electoral victory. They will continue to disappoint until they find a common ground to bring themselves together and transition into a genuine, and major voting bloc.

Pastor Tunde Bakare was my preferred candidate to become Nigeria’s president in 2023 but I have followed politics long enough to know that only rare supernatural occurrences like what brought Chief Ernest Shonekan to power in 1993 (a military junta selected and installed him as Interim head of state), Dr Goodluck Jonathan in 2009 (former President Obasanjo forced an unknown vice presidential candidate on his party and the president died two years after they were elected to office), Major General Buhari in 1985 (he reportedly did not participate in the coup planning, and just got selected by the coup plotters), or Lt. General Olusegun Obasanjo in 1976 (his boss – the president was killed in an unsuccessful coup at  time he was not thinking of becoming head of state) could have brought him to power. So it was not surprising that he scored zero in the APC primary elections.

In my book, “Liberating Nigeria: A Guide to Winning Elections and Reviving our Country” (available on amazon and leading bookstores in Nigeria), I described new-breed politicians as selfless Nigerians who may be imperfect but have unquestionable commitment to Nigeria’s development. The new breed politicians are different from traditional politicians, but they cannot win elections without collaborating with some repentant traditional politicians. All over the world, new breed politicians or new entrants into politics cannot win elections without making some tough compromises of relating with some powerful voting blocs through their leaders. I also said that it will take new breed politicians several years (sometimes decades) to build adequate coalition that can wrestle power from mainstream politicians. My verdict is that 2003 elections will be won by the traditional politicians because the youths are far from being ready.

The first thing the heterogeneous Nigerian youths must do is to find ways of collaborating across the country to form a strong voting bloc that the traditional politicians cannot ignore. I am usually amazed when I see the traditional politicians bury their religious, class, ideological and tribal differences to plan elections, steal and oppress the masses. If they can effectively collaborate to do bad things, the youths should be able to learn how to collaborate to do great things. The youths need to select and respect a few leaders across the six geo-political zones of Nigeria who in turn will lead collaboration talks across the country. This is the starting point of generating a potential voting bloc of millions of Nigerians. As soon as a significantly large voting bloc has been established, it becomes easier to raise money for elections and the bloc becomes very attractive to repentant traditional politicians who can provide political education, structure, and funding.

A small but significant amount of southern youths are currently supporting Peter Obi to become Nigeria’s president in 2023. This group comprises mostly educated youths who are social media savvy. But this group needs to first expand their base across the south to include the street youths, then form alliance with northern units, before they can be taken seriously by other types of electorates and politicians. Without the support of grassroot politicians and some repentant traditional politicians, Peter Obi’s aspiration will remain a dream. 

Apart from Peter Obi, the other rising star is Rabiu Kwanwanso from the north. His popularity seems confined to Kano and Jigawa and he doesn’t have enough widespread support to win the 2023 presidential elections. But if his group can productively collaborate with Peter Obi’s supporters, they can both form a strong team that can win future elections.

I hope Mr. Peter Obi will keep the social media movement alive even if he loses the 2023 elections. It may take him close to ten years to achieve any significant result, but the movement needs sustained leadership to stand a future chance. I also hope the youths will accept Mr. Peter Obi’s leadership despite his imperfections and select other selfless leaders across the country alongside him. These energetic southern youths will be wasting their time if they don’t reach out to the street youths in the south and the north. Extensive collaboration across all six regions and with grassroot politicians and some repentant traditional politicians can indeed deliver victory in 2027 or 2031.

My humble opinion is that 2023 will be won by either PDP or APC and since we all know the negative sides (which bothers largely on corruption) of their two candidates, I like to talk a little about their positive sides to encourage those people that have given up already on Nigeria to stay positive. In fact, a journalist recently told me that both the APC and PDP candidates are scary, and I disagreed with him. I explained that we should find solace in the fact that both candidates are better prepared for the job and will likely do better than the outgoing APC government. 

Bola Tinubu handed over power to new breed politician in 2007 – Governor Babatunde Fashola. Since 1999, I have not come across any governor as knowledgeable and productive as Fashola. He did quite well in Lagos and has been one of the few impressive ministers in the Muhammadu Buhari government

At 75years of age, Atiku appears physically fitter than the slightly younger Tinubu, and articulates his points more confidently. However, he (Atiku) doesn’t have demonstrable experience delivering economic transformation, productive succession strategies, political party expansion and unique ideological templates like Tinubu. The economic transformation of Lagos State from a place many people were scared visiting into the fifth largest economy in Africa can easily be attributed to Tinubu and his party.

Apart from Fashola, Tinubu discovered and gave leadership opportunities to technocratic politicians like   Governor Kayode Fayemi, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Yemi Cardoso, Femi Hamzat, Wale Edun, etc. If he (Tinubu) does the same as president of Nigeria and allows the technocrats to grow the economy while he focuses more on political governance, Nigeria will make progress.

Given that Atiku has been actively seeking to become Nigeria’s president since 1993, he certainly has broader nationwide experience and network than Bola Tinubu. He may therefore be able to cut political deals quicker and get good legislative bills passed on time. His experience as vice president and chairman of the economic team under former President Olusegun Obasanjo also gives him a national economic experience that Tinubu does not have.

In terms of building or nurturing startups, while Atiku has always needed existing party structures to contest elections and that has made him switch parties a few times in the last fifteen years, Tinubu has grown his party through coalitions from a one-state party in 2003 to a 22-state party as at June 2022.

In conclusion, I will not end this article without expressing my preference between Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. As a historian and ardent follower of Nigerian politics, I believe zoning is a fair principle that enhances Nigeria’s unity. 2023 is the turn of the south (ideally southeast) and I support Bola Tinubu ahead of Atiku Abubakar in that regard. I also supported northern presidency in 2015 and 2019 because of zoning, but also because of the supposed integrity of President Muhammadu Buhari and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo. Beyond zoning however, I am persuaded by the fact that Bola Tinubu is highly skilled at assembling formidable teams of technocrats in his government and has the tendency to hand over power to a smart leader from the north at the expiration of his tenure.

Nigeria will surely flourish again!

Debo Onifade is the author of “Liberating Nigeria: A Guide to Winning Elections and Reviving our Country.”