“The United States benchmark West Texas Intermediate for September delivery dived almost 3.0 per cent, shedding $1.40 to close at $47.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.”

Reported by a national daily on August 3, 2015

“I had rather be right than be President.” Henry Clay, 1777-1852, in a letter to Senator Preston of South Carolina in 1839.

Forget wishing anybody Merry Christmas this year; you might as well also dispense with the Happy New Year greetings for 2016. At the risk of being called, once again, a prophet of doom, let me declare right now that given the trend of crude oil prices, Nigerians are headed for the bleakest Christmas in history, and we stand to start 2016 with the worst economic uncertainty in our history.

Buhari

The situation can only be made worse if the Federal Government fails to take urgent steps to address the inevitable economic recession. Calling for urgency with respect to economic policy and programmes is contrary to the opinions of those in the corridors of power who collectively applaud the measured approach to governance now established. But, history has taught us that saints and fools rush when danger is imminent.

For that reason, at least on economic policy, permit me to register my objection to the conventional wisdom in vogue in Abuja which seems to rest on the assumption that everything will wait for us. One thing is not waiting; and that is the price of crude oil which could go as low as $40 per barrel by December. Even before then several things would have happened, harbingers of our inevitable economic turmoil in 2016.

The States would have exhausted the bail out funds. Monthly allocations to states, which was N111bn in June 2015, compared with N196bn in July 2006, will dwindle further. All the governments will not be able to pay salaries by the end of the year. Bad news, you say, but true. You will be advised not to dismiss this warning; because my track records with predictions speak for themselves.

“Friends” of the President have dismissed everybody who canvasses for more urgency by classifying them into three groups: job seekers, PDP members who want Buhari to fail and saboteurs. Let me address the first and third because even an idiot knows I am not a PDP member.

Like Clay, I will rather be right than Minister or Special Adviser to President. God and my Fellow Nigerians (how many fools make up the 170 million?), even the fools, know that we had been badly governed in the last sixteen years from Obasanjo to Jonathan. Based on hope rather than collective experience, we voted for change in 2015 and we settled on a leader who majority of us believed will deliver the positive change.

Even the most ardent supporter of President Buhari must acknowledge that he is not an economist. In fact, like Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan before him, he would have to rely on those who have a good grasp of the subject. Being deficient in knowledge of any important subject hampers ALL Presidents and Prime Ministers irrespective of country. With respect to the whole body of knowledge required to govern a State, not to talk of a large country like Nigeria, we are ALL illiterates.

That knowledge deficit is the reason Presidents often fail to foresee danger in a particular area until a crisis becomes a calamity. For instance, Jonathan, not having military training, could not foresee the Boko Haram escalating to the point of claiming four states of Nigeria from him. The same is true of economic crisis – such as the one we now have on our hands which might develop into a calamity; unless URGENT steps are taken.

The report about crude oil delivery prices for September 2015 portends serious consequences for us. In August 2014, the Federal Government and States shared N601.65bn; and that gross revenue included money taken from the Excess Crude Account, ECA. The price of crude oil was over $75 per barrel. In June this year the FG, States and LGs shared a meager $518.5bn, or only 86 per cent of what they got in August last year. Crude prices in May were around $60 per barrel.

Now with crude deliveries for September 2015 down to 63 per cent of last year’s level, and no ECA to cushion the impact of plummeting crude prices, does anybody need to be an economist to know that the FG, States and LGs which shared N111bn for June will collect less in September. Furthermore, as the price of crude continues its decline, the three tiers of government will continue to receive less. State governors, like the governor of a South West State who promised to clear salary arrears in three months, are operating in fantasyland, not Nigeria.

No State Governor will be in a position to clear arrears of anything (salaries, pensions, gratuities, severance pay, debts etc) this year. If anything they will increasingly find it difficult to pay as and when due – unless urgent steps are taken NOW.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom peddled in and around Aso Rock, anyone asking Buhari not to speed up on addressing the economic calamity facing us is the saboteur. While politics, apparently, has consumed the lives of our leaders, they seem to have forgotten that MAN MUST WACK NOW AND ALWAYS.

Two political leaders should be saying the Irish prayer everyday, “God save me from my friends, I can take care of my enemies”, the two are:  Buhari and Saraki. The two have one thing in common: they are more imperiled by their “friends” than their “enemies”. One man sitting in Otuoke now understands that. Unless urgent steps are taken NOW, most states will literally fold up – for all intents and purposes.

NB: Part 2 of SARAKI ON TIGER’S BACK NEEDS HELP will continue next week.