ON the political chessboard, moves and counter-moves are sometimes so furious in pace as to confound bystanders and interested democratic watchers. The unpredictably turbulent political space in Edo State presents even more complicated and sphinx-like scenario.

The recent defection of members of Alaghodaro Group, an erstwhile faction in the APC, to the PDP typifies such an event. Thus, public discourse has tended to be inscrutably mawkish. But one is cognizant of the fact that so near is falsehood to truth that even the judgement of wise men on the narrow edge are dubitable.

The crises that led to the defection of Alaghodaro group members from the APC to the PDP had a background, history, character and a build-up that must be clearly placed in the right perspective. First, the dramatis personae in the entire episode are well known members of the political class in Edo State. For instance, Dr. Tony Omoaghe was a National Officer of the PDP.

Later he became the Chairman of the Igbinedion faction of the PDP when sharp polarisation of the PDP resulted in the creation of factional secretariats. On his own part, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu was Chief of Staff and later Secretary to State Government under former Governor Lucky Igbinedion. He was the chief promoter of a political group called the Grace Group, which was by and large resurrected as Alaghodaro group in the APC.

Throughout the period of their membership of APC, no one can deny that these two men along with Alaghodaro members were visible in the government of Adams Oshiomhole. Their relationship with the Comrade-Governor was extremely cordial. Indeed, the fact that Pastor Ize-Iyamu dedicated the honorary award on him late last year by Benson Idahosa University to the Comrade-Governor above all men who had earlier influenced his life strongly attests to this cordiality.

But it is the nature of ambition to hide the truth in its breast. Ambition is never quenched but responds only to its appetite. Given the distance covered side by side by Pastor Ize-Iyamu and Comrade Oshiomhole, only the consuming fire of ambition could have ruptured the relationship.

There is a dark side to every ambitious man and this was amply manifested by the continued nurturing of a factional group in the party even after major elections were won. Without belabouring fertile imaginations, Pastor Ize- Iyamu in a recent interview admitted this fact and accused the Comrade-Governor of reneging on his promise to make him his successor.

It became absolutely manifest that the storm was instigated solely to protest perceived denial of access to gubernatorial power. It thus appears that the leadership of the group thought it was appropriate to pre-empt the outcome of the party ward and local government congresses as defeat was a fait accompli. It was therefore tactical to explore the option of mounting intimidating pressures on the Comrade-Governor to stand by his alleged private endorsement in words and action. This did not happen!

The Alaghodaro group’s defection is different from earlier ones in that the group is known to be factious, belligerent and vindictive.

The reason is because the defection was not ideas and values driven. When a man takes a firm ideological stand out of conviction, he would find it hard to abandon it for private advantage. Such selfishly instigated crises may grab media headlines and public attention but they cannot sway the confidence of the people when the chips are down.

When a man is madly angry, he goes through a crucible of a sort during which even the glitters of gold would appear to him like mere garbage. He is often a victim of his anger! But let us face it, if Pastor Ize-Iyamu had been endorsed as APC gubernatorial nominee for 2016 as requested, would there have been any defection? Certainly not.

Against the background that the rejection of the party in 2007 and the series of cross carpeting witnessed ever since, particularly in the run-off to the 2012 gubernatorial election, the cacophony of the PDP over the action of the defectors is understandable. The party has been comatose for too long. But what is the electoral value of the Alaghodaro group to the PDP?

Can their move reconfigure the political equation in the State? Time will tell. Yet, a good knowledge of the characters of the decampees and the electoral behaviour of voters in Edo State will be a reliable pointer to the possibilities ahead. In view of the uninspiring record of performance of the PDP in the State, it seems most unlikely that Edo people will again entrust their destiny in the hands of the over-bearing godfathers. The party believes that the popularity of the government has plummeted, thus giving the PDP an edge.

Yet, placed on a scale of balance, the visible star legacy achievements of the government would overwhelmingly tilt the balance in favour of the APC. While human memories may be short, the wounds inflicted on the collective psyche of Edo people who groaned under the weight of callous executive abandonment of responsibilities of the PDP government is still apparently too fresh in the minds of the people to ignore.

Consequently, the bashing of Comrade Oshiomhole and his government by the PDP will only be hard hitting, if they could taunt the APC government with their own record of performance. The PDP should pick on a sector where their government clearly excelled and attack the present government for not sustaining their shining example.

It is not persuasive criticising a government that gave Edo people a modern six- lane road where it was thought impossible when the critics cannot point to one completed project standing tall in tribute to their party. It counts for nothing for the PDP to criticise Oshiomhole’s government for what they called financial recklessness, when it is of public knowledge that their government awarded contracts, collected full payments for them and the contractors never appeared at the sites.

The image of the PDP is not also enhanced when the principal actors of that government are being celebrated and welcomed back as defectors, as if their atrocities have been forgiven. Even in Christendom, you need serious penance to have your sins forgiven.

AIYEVBEKPEN OSAKUE, a political strategist,  wrote from Benin City.