By Dele Sobowale

“All political parties die at last from swallowing their own lies.”Dr. John Arbuthnot, 1667-1735.
(VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS p. 191).

Perhaps, this column should have been titled Further adventures in prophesy and it would have been apt. Back in 2003 when the leaders of Afenifere, who were also the leaders of the Alliance for Democracy, AD, (remember it?) decided not to field a Presidential candidate for 2003 in order to save President Obasanjo the embarrassment of not controlling his own zone, the Southwest, I wrote a column entitled, Requiem for AD.

In that piece, I predicted the decline and fall of AD because it was clear to me that a political party not vying for the Presidency was in mortal danger in a country where power is so concentrated in Aso Rock.

One highly-respected Uncle among the leaders of AD called me to his place and admonished me for raising undue alarm.

According to him, the leaders of Afenifere had reached an agreement with Obasanjo to relinquish the Southwest to him and in exchange Obasanjo had accepted that all AD governors will be returned to power.

I looked at the old man with my mouth wide open. Here was an octogenarian, who had been in politics since the early days of Wallow demonstrating unbelievable naivete on the most crucial decision that he and others of the old guard had to make. So, I asked him a question.

“Do you trust Obasanjo?” He answered, “I don’t expect a President of Nigeria and a Yorubaman at his age not to keep his words.”

Then, I told him, “Uncle, you will soon discover that in Obasanjo you have both a President and a Yorubaman whose words count for nothing.” The rest is history. The rest of AD, except Bola Tinubu and Lagos State Ad went out to campaign for Obasanjo. Former Governor Lam Adesina was even quoted as saying that “only a bastard Yoruba person will not vote for Obasanjo in 2003.”

And, for good measure, he added, “Nobody can stop me from campaigning for Obasanjo.” Well, the leaders of AD and the foolish AD governors who supported him had their way. Till today, they are all still licking their wounds. Obasanjo proved to be the ingrate I predicted and AD lost relevance in the Southwest.

Prior to that, in 1998 when retired Generals Babangida, Aliyu Gusau, Danjuma and Abubakar, ably supported by Alhaji Abubakar Atiku and Dr. Alex Ekwueme, conspired to impose Obasanjo on the nation as the civilian president in 1999, I predicted that they will all regret it. Today, mention the name Obasanjo in the presence of any of those “wise” men of 1998 and you will observe the closest thing to a human volcano.

PDP was headed for the graveyard the day Obasanjo became President of Nigeria. It was only a matter of time…
JOS EXPLOSIONS: HARBINGERS OF THINGS TO COME –1
“There is a pleasure in being mad which none but mad men know.”

Saul Bellow, atr.
A few hours after Brig-General Hassan Umoru assured residents of Jos of a peaceful Christmas, war broke out. Or, what do you call multiple explosions reportedly killing no fewer than 60 people? At least, for one day, Nigeria surpassed Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and all the other theatres of war globally. And, if you think this does not concern you because you live in Lagos, Ughelli, Abriba, Dutsinma or Michika, then you must belong to two classes of individuals with respect to ignorance.

The first believe that ignorance is bliss; the second, while knowledgeable about events imagine it is so far away, it will never affect them not knowing that, now, we have mad men everywhere.

The second group reminds me of the man living at the 10th floor of a building sinking as the earth opened up to swallow the structure and who said, “I am o.k I live on the 10th floor.” Unlike that fellow, let me be the first to warn you of our present danger – nationwide.

Let me start with technical matters before going into the political, ethnic, religious and social underpinnings of the carnage in Jos which had set back the peace process in that city by years – not months. By the time the victims recover from the shock, there will be no stopping the reprisals, with or without JTF. Gen. Umoru, whose assurances were instantly disproved, will soon discover that he can provide no security to anyone for a long time to come. Now, let me briefly touch on the technicalities, from personal experience.

Multiple explosions invariably mean multiple “assembly” plants; each is situated very close to the target point(s). They are generally transient camps (abandoned or uncompleted buildings; motor mechanic workshops; portakabins, even abandoned vehicles etc). And, they also invariably mean two or three experts, each heading a small mobile battle group.

They breed like flies once started. Finding the people and their “factories” will pose a challenge for the authorities because they are always a step ahead of the security forces. Unfortunately, once a group in conflict acquires certain weapons of mass destruction, their opponents have no choice about doing the same.

Escalation of hostilities, meaning more bombs, claiming more casualties, will most probably provide the background against which INEC will be trying to conduct a “free and fair” election in Jos this year. I don’t envy Jega and his staff. I only hope there is adequate insurance for those deployed to combat zones like Jos. There are others waiting to explode.

NEXT WEEK: ZONING AND BOMBS IN JOS: DEADY COMBINATION.
BUDGET 2011: IS THIS THE BEST THEY CAN DO?
“Doesn’t anybody around here know how to play this game?”
U.S Baseball Coach, after his team lost 17 games in a row.

Since 2007, this hapless nation had been afflicted with one bungled budget after another. More disturbing is the fact that each one had been worse than its predecessor. Do we have dullards in charge or these people just don’t care? The 2011 budget could only have been put together by people who don’t wish us well. Is this the best, President Jonathan?