By Dele Sobowale

“Nor should we listen to those who say ‘The voice of the people is the voice of God’. For the turbulence of the [masses] is always close to insanity.” Alcuin, 735-804 AD. ( BOOK OF QUOTATIONS p 265).

Nigeria is shedding rivers of blood, mourning and in search of thousands of answers to as many questions at once. My heart bleeds for my country. I never would have thought ten, five, or even two years ago, that we would have descended, so deep, into a hell we created ourselves – all of us. But, we are here and we must dig ourselves out of the hell hole – one way or the other.

My heart goes out to the parents whose daughters are still missing. As the father of six daughters, I would by now be fit to be tied if one of them was among the kidnapped. I can feel the anguish in my bones. But, the Yoruba people have the proper adage for an occasion such as this – when everything seems to have gone wrong — at once. “Ti a ba nsukun, a ma riran”; translation: “Even as we weep and mourn we must keep our eyes open”.

Our Yoruba Tutor at Igbobi College, in 1962, as we were preparing for WAEC, explained to me the reason for increased vigilance even in times of great distress. WE DON’T WANT TO MAKE THE SITUATION WORSE. And it can get worse – unless we think faster than we shed tears or write placards.

Let me issue a warning to every reader of this series. It is not designed to make you feel better; to excoriate or excuse anything President Jonathan and his aides (including the First Lady) had done or failed to do; to accuse or exonerate anybody, or group, in particular. It is my wish to leave alone most of the things that have been said by the high and low, at home and abroad.

These are my thoughts based on facts, some of which might be disturbing, but which right now are very much indisputable. I will only refer to what had been said if it serves any purpose in bringing what I believe are fresh insights into these monster problems. You can stop reading any time you feel too angry to continue.

FACT 1. Boko Haram can never win this war. It can win some more battles; but the war is lost. To win a war, the winner has to be able to occupy the territory in dispute and govern it for a long time. Boko Haram can never claim any Local Government, not to talk of a state or states. So, for Nigeria, victory is assured.

But, as Will Rogers, 1879-1935, remarked, during World War I, 1914-1918, “Right [will] win; but it would win sooner if it had a few more machine guns..and uniforms on its side.” (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS p 218).

But, most of those who have been clamouring for the Federal Government to go in and “crush Boko Haram” are not economists who understand too well that even the richest countries in the world still live in a world of allocation of resources. To add more machine guns and men in uniform, government will have to cut back somewhere. Are we all ready for the monumental sacrifice required? We better say YES or stop talking.

FACT 2. “Power and money, of course, do drive people crazy. So, why shouldn’t people gain power and wealth through being crazy?” asked Saul Bellow. Quite a number of crazy people had gained power and wealth in this country. Boko Haram leaders are just the gang of loonies of the moment. How we handle this matter will determine whether, or not another insane group will turn up.

So, we better be careful about the advice we give to Jonathan and the precedent we establish. Fortunately, Boko Haram has already demonstrated its financial predicament by resorting to kidnapping and slavery. The minute they snatched over 200 girls at a go (I will come presently to address more facts on this) every economists knows that the lunatic Shekau had acquired some “bargaining chips” — which, unfortunately, for him and his gang, they don’t know how to trade for the money they badly need.

Meanwhile, even a deranged fellow knows that by snatching 200-plus girls, he had immediately inflicted on himself and his gang 200-plus mouths to feed everyday. In addition, he has to provide custody in several places, as well as other things. And, he knows all of them hate their guts. They are only useful to him when alive. Most probably, they have regretted the monumental error.

Keeping those girls under close watch would have tied down a good number of his fighters. No general in control of his senses can be so wasteful of fighters and hope to win the war. The kidnaps also are indicative of the fact that he is running short of cash. His sponsors have probably started to back off. So, he and his gang are forced to take this increasingly risky option for survival. FAILURE.

FACT 3. “The battle is mine”, said the Lord. Even, in the midst of our sorrow and perplexity, at this time; when there is a national deficit of hope, permit me to remind all of us of the words of our former military President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, GCFR, on October 26, 1985, at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, NIPSS, Kuru, near Jos.

In an address titled TOWARDS A BETTER SOCIETY, IBB told us, “under our current conditions, it may be thought audacious to talk of creating a better society while we are still battling with the problems of a battered economy. This may be so; but I believe wholeheartedly in the promise of God that in the middle of the utmost adversity, He creates and brings forth a new and greater glory and more auspicious circumstances for people (like Nigerians at the moment) that suffer.” [italics mine].

IBB’s was the tonic we needed at the time. Let us forgive GEJ and work with him. The battle is the Lord’s – not his or ours anymore…

P.S. This column was written before the release of pictures; nothing changed.
I THANK EVERYBODY.
With over eight hundred calls, text messages and e-mail addresses from 17 countries, still counting, round the world, it was a wonderful birthday last Thursday. God bless you all. Now I can “go and die” and leave everybody alone..abi? Thank you for saying YES.

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