Politics

November 6, 2012

US Elections: Permutations of swing states rush

By Hugo Odiogor and Gbenga Oke
AS Americans go to vote today, President Obama has 237 electoral votes on ground and if he wins Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa today, he reaches 270 mandatory electoral votes.

For Romney, he has 206electoral votes already and he needs to win Virginia, Florida, Colorado and probably New Hampshire in today’s election to carry the day.

They are also making serious efforts to mobilise the voters to go out and vote. Another key factor is the mobilisation of poll watchers especially among lawyers and veterans of electoral contests in US, to monitor the electoral process and compliance with electoral regulations. Each of the parties are preparing for possible legal challenge in the swing states.

As Americans vote today, the choice before them is between an economic philosophy that is anchored on the doctrine of trickle down, where the government is made to grant tax cuts to a few wealthy people who control corporate America or whether government should empower the middle class and small business groups who should grow the economy from bottom-up.

Colorado, here about 1.5 million have voted with  Republicans, leading with 35% to32%

Iowa has about 584,000 that have voted and Democrats are ahead with 43% advantage over Republicans who have 32%.

Nevada,

There are 627,000 that have vote and 44% has gone to Democrats with the Republicans having 37%. Moving to North Carolina, Democrats have taken 45% of the 2.3milion votes cast in early voting while Republicans trail with 32%

Ohio State with 18 electoral College votes has proved to be the toughest battle ground for both parties which wants to get a favourable result their to brighten their chances of winning the presidency. Historically, no Republican Party candidate has made it to the White House without winning in Ohio. Poll statistics favour President Obama who hold 48 per cent lead against Mitt Romney who hold 46%. Gary Anderson of Libertarian Party who is on the ballot in Ohio, hold 4% while the Green Party candidate also on the ballot has 2% of acceptance in the state. Analysis believe that the two minor parties on the ballot in Ohio.

Florida:The sunshine state has 29 electoral college votes and has the infamous history of vote recount which was progressively going the way of Al Gore. In the end, the former vice president got more popular votes, but lost the election on account of not securing enough electoral votes to reach the required 270 electoral votes that is required to clinch the White House. Florida has a high population of Hispanics, and Blacks. It also has a high population of elderly people, tourists who rely on the social programmes.

Florida has a sizeable mixed demographic profile but it is expected that a good turn-out of Blacks, Hispanic will favour Obama, but there has been issues concerning voting machines and the possible use of security personnel to intimate the voters. Some elderly people have had difficulties with the voting machines when it fails to perforate the voting card and may not be counted.

There has been massive training of poll watchers and people who want to make sure that people are not prevented from voting. With the race being so tight, the two parties have sent in lawyers and poll experts to watch ot for any material evidential materials that can be used in courts to challenge the outcome of the election.

1    Ohio    Electoral  votes 18
Obama    47%
Romney    45%
2    Virginia    Electoral votes  13
Obama    49%
Romney    46%
3    Colorado    Electoral  votes 9
Obama    50%
Romney    48%
4    Florida    Electoral Votes 29
Obama    48%
Romney    47%
5    Nevada     Electoral votes  5
Obama    50.%
Romney    46%
6    Wisconsin    Electoral votes  10
Obama    52%
Romney    47%
7    New Hampshire    Electoral votes 4
Obama    49%
Romney    47%