By Hector Igbikiowubo

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, stands at a precipice. The daily headlines – kidnappings, budget chaos, legislative failure, and judicial paralysis are not random incidents; they are the symptoms of a profound and systemic crisis. The state, as envisioned by the constitution, is failing in its most fundamental duties. From the security of lives and property to the provision of basic infrastructure and justice, the Nigerian state has become a hollowed-out entity where dysfunction is the norm and impunity reigns supreme. This article examines the key characteristics of Nigeria’s state failure and proposes the radical interventions required to salvage the nation.

When the State Cannot Protect

The primary function of any state is the protection of its citizens. In Nigeria, this social contract is broken. The crisis in the Middle Belt, often mischaracterised as simple “farmer-herder clashes,” is a complex human tragedy rooted in decades of state failure and institutionalised impunity. As analysts have noted, this violence bears the hallmarks of targeted campaigns, described by some as “religious conquest” and “genocide”. The government’s framing of these events as mere “clashes” is a dangerous misnomer that obscures an existential assault on communities. The state’s centralised policing system, designed to prevent regionalism, has proven utterly ineffective, while the military is often viewed as absent or complicit in this violence.

The endemic insecurity extends beyond the Middle Belt. In the northeast, after 17 years of insurgent conflict, the humanitarian crisis is accelerating, not stabilising. The state’s inability to secure territory has created a landscape of constant risk for civilians and aid workers, with nearly 35 million Nigerians projected to face acute food insecurity in 2026. The human cost is staggering, with over 100,000 deaths from terrorism and banditry and more than 12,260 people kidnapped since 2023. The situation in states like Zamfara is particularly dire, with the state government described as having “no clear developmental agenda” while “corruption and collusion between government agents and non-state actors continue to fuel insecurity”.

The violence has fostered a culture of absolute impunity. Perpetrators are rarely pursued, and victims are often further victimised by security agencies that arrest local youths instead of their attackers. The government’s initiatives, like the National Livestock Transformation Plan, are exposed as hollow performances lacking political will for implementation. The state is not merely negligent; through its inaction and the politicisation of the crisis, it has become an active enabler of the violence tearing communities apart.

A Parliament that Rubber-Stamps, an Executive that Overlooks

The crisis of governance is perhaps most evident in the failure of the National Assembly to perform its constitutional duties. The 10th National Assembly, led by Godswill Akpabio and Tajudeen Abbas, has been described as one of the weakest links in Nigeria’s democratic chain. A recent report by the AdvoKC Foundation’s Promise Tracker platform paints a damning picture: federal lawmakers failed to fulfill 68 of the 92 commitments made since 2023, with the House of Representatives scoring only 26.8% and the Senate 44.11% on commitment fulfillment.

The parliament has fundamentally misunderstood its role. It has placed its own needs and a cozy relationship with the executive above its constitutional responsibilities of lawmaking and oversight. The most glaring examples are its handling of key issues. Lawmakers have passed thousands of bills, yet have failed to make any meaningful impact on the crisis of 18.3 million out-of-school children, 63% of the population living in multidimensional poverty, or the escalatinginsecurity. They have responded to kidnappings and deaths with empty rhetoric and condolence statements.

Executive bills and loan requests are routinely approved within days with minimal scrutiny. Former Senate President Bukola Saraki’s observation that “a parliament that cannot say no is not a parliament at all” rings truer than ever. This is a legislature that has demonstrated its priorities by suspending senators for criticisingthe President while endorsing him for re-election. The National Assembly has squandered its power, becoming an appendage of the executive rather than a check on it.

Budget Anarchy: The Concurrent Running of Fiscal Years

The government’s financial management is a testament to its dysfunction. Nigeria is currently running overlapping budgets concurrently, with the 2024, 2025, and 2026 fiscal frameworks being implemented simultaneously. This “fiscal clutter” has made a mockery of the budget cycle. The capital component of the 2025 budget alone has been extended three times, a move justified as necessary to prevent the abandonment of projects.

The reality is more disturbing. According to budget documents, only about 20% of the 2025 capital allocation had been released by mid-year. The World Bank has noted that “only 24% of the prorated 2025 capital budget of MDAs was implemented, leaving a significant portion of approved investment unspent and limiting the growth impact of public spending”. This has severe consequences: contractors remain unpaid, infrastructure projects are delayed, and the economic benefits that should accrue are postponed indefinitely.

The government’s attempt to “reset” the budget cycle through the repeal and re-enactment of the 2024 and 2025 Appropriation Acts is a transparent admission of this failure. These stopgap measures do not address the underlying systemic weaknesses: unrealistic revenue projections, cumbersome procurement processes, frequent delays in fund releases, and weak monitoring mechanisms. The result is a system where fiscal discipline is non-existent and accountability is impossible.

A Two-Tiered System of Justice

The judiciary, the final hope for citizens seeking redress, has become a two-tiered system that prioritises the powerful. While ordinary Nigerians languish in cases that can take decades, political and electoral disputes are fast-tracked. Senior Advocate of Nigeria Fidelis Oditah has warned that Nigeria operates a “two-speed justice system” where the political class has ensured their disputes are heard expeditiously, often at the expense of the vast majority of ordinary citizens.

The consequences are devastating. Cases remain in court for 20 to 30 years, and litigants frequently die before judgments are delivered. Oditah chillingly notes, “Our problem is no longer access to justice but exit from justice”. The example of a land dispute that commenced at the Onitsha High Court in 1955 and was only concluded in 2025—70 years later—without a determination on the merits is a stark indictment.

The prioritisation of political cases has diverted judicial resources from regular courts. Nearly 1,900 pre-election cases were filed ahead of the 2023 general election, with 338 judges deployed to election petition tribunals, effectively freezing proceedings in thousands of other cases. This creates a system where those with political power can access justice, while the average citizen is denied it.

Radical Interventions Needed

The challenges are immense, but Nigeria is not beyond redemption. The path forward requires radical, courageous, and sustained interventions.

A. True Security Reform Through Decentralisation

Nigeria must fundamentally restructure its security architecture through deep decentralisation. The centralised police force has failed. The recent passage of the State Police Bill by the National Assembly is a step in the right direction, but it must be implemented with robust safeguards to prevent abuse by state governors. As one analyst noted, “Without strong institutions and grassroots structures, the country risks merely decentralising existing security problems rather than solving them”.

This must be coupled with addressing the root causes of insecurity: governance gaps, warped political economies, and social fragmentation. As Dakuku Peterside argues, “Peace Nigerians long for will only come when the ground itself changes—when the village that once knew only fear begins to see teachers, nurses, judges, and honest local officials as often as it considers armed patrols”.

B. Fiscal Discipline and Budget Realism

Nigeria must adopt realistic revenue projections, strict adherence to statutory timelines, faster procurement processes, and improved project monitoring. The National Assembly must strengthen oversight rather than just approve extensions. A budget is not judged by the size of its appropriations but by the quality of its execution.

The federal government must ensure that appropriated funds translate into measurable outcomes. This requires transparency in security spending, robust oversight of law enforcement, and insisting that those who collude with criminal enterprises face real consequences.

C. Restoring Judicial Independence and Efficiency

The judiciary must be reformed to serve all Nigerians, not just the political class. The National Judicial Council must take the lead in amending the Electoral Act to give clarity to the position taken at their conference, limiting the court’s involvement in pre-election matters. There must be a genuine, impartial effort to prosecute perpetrators and any state officials found to be complicit in the violence tearing the nation apart.

Addressing the backlog of cases requires investment in judicial infrastructure, increased numbers of judges, and a fundamental shift away from procedural formalism towards substantive justice. As Oditah noted, Nigerian courts have “wrongly conflated jurisdiction… with admissibility,” turning “procedural defects into fatal errors”.

D. Rebuilding Trust in Government

Ultimately, the crisis is one of trust. Nigerians have lost faith in their leaders, institutions, and processes. Rebuilding this trust requires transparency, accountability, and a genuine commitment to serving the people. Communities need to believe in the state’s role as a protector, not an instrument of elite resource capture.

The government must address the absence of basic social services —education, healthcare, clean water, functional roads that deepens this disillusionment. A child who grows up in a village without a school, a clinic, or any visible symbol of state care receives a powerful message about their value. The social contract is broken long before the first gunshot is fired.

Conclusion

The Nigeria depicted here is a nation in crisis, a state that has failed its citizens in almost every way. The security forces cannot protect, the parliament cannot legislate, the budget cannot be implemented, and the judiciary cannot deliver justice. Yet, these are not the signs of a nation beyond saving, but one that requires a fundamental reimagining of its governance.

Nigeria’s political leaders must understand that the status quo is unsustainable. The violence, corruption, and dysfunction will only deepen if left unchecked. The path forward requires courage, political will, and a genuine commitment to the people. It means confronting entrenched interests that profit from the chaos, investing in institutions that serve the people, and ensuring that those in power are held accountable.

The fate of Nigeria is not predetermined. It can choose to continue adrift, or it can chart a new course, one that restores faith in its institutions and promises a better future for all its citizens. The time for half-measures and political expediency is over. Nigeria needs a New Deal, a comprehensive, bold, and sustained effort to rebuild its state and reclaim its destiny.