The recent Dangote Refinery battle for survival in Nigeria is a critical reflection of Nigeria’s broader economic direction, according to energy expert, Dan D. Kunle.

In a statement to newsmen on Monday, Kunle noted that the battle transcends petrol imports, regulatory issues, or conflicts between private interests and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). It centres on whether Nigeria will build a robust industrial economy by refining its own oil or remain dependent on exporting crude and importing refined products.

Nigeria’s Long History of Broken National Ambition:

Kunle traced Nigeria’s repeated failures in strategic national projects, citing the collapse of the automobile industry in the 1970s and 1980s despite ambitious assembly plants like Peugeot Automobile Nigeria (PAN), Volkswagen, ANAMMCO, and others.

He noted similar declines in the railway network, Nigeria Airways, NITEL, NAFCON, the textile industry, and the Ajaokuta Steel Complex, attributing them to policy inconsistency, poor governance, infrastructure decay, and vested interests.

The expert observed that ongoing reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu aim to address these weaknesses, but consistency in execution remains key.

The Oil Paradox That Weakened Nigeria:

For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has exported crude oil while importing refined petroleum products, a situation Kunle described as structurally flawed.

He highlighted how state-owned refineries suffered from inefficiency and poor maintenance, leading to a thriving import ecosystem involving traders, financiers, and intermediaries that benefits from the status quo at the expense of ordinary Nigerians through inflation, currency devaluation, and lost opportunities.

Why Dangote Refinery Changes the Equation:

Kunle described the Dangote Refinery as the most significant private sector attempt in decades to reverse this imbalance, encompassing refining capacity, petrochemicals, logistics, fertiliser production, and thousands of jobs.

He emphasised that it demonstrates industrial execution at a scale previously unachieved by the state, potentially reducing import dependence and strengthening energy security.

The Import System and the Structure of Dependence:

The subsidy and import regime, according to Kunle, created an expensive fiscal burden and an ecosystem where many interests profited from Nigeria’s inability to refine locally.

The Dangote Refinery, he said, disrupts this entrenched structure, explaining the heightened tensions.

The Monopoly Argument, NNPCL, and Institutional Contradictions:

Addressing criticisms of monopoly, Kunle stated that Dangote’s efforts to limit indiscriminate import licences aim to correct structural imbalances rather than eliminate competition.

He pointed to NNPCL’s conflicting roles as a 7.2 per cent shareholder in the refinery, a major importer of refined products, and a key player in regulation, describing it as a clear conflict of interest that undermines the credibility of monopoly claims.

“The real issue is not monopoly, it is structural transition,” he asserted.

Nigeria’s Defining Economic Choice:

Kunle presented Nigeria at a historic crossroads: continue with a dependency model of crude exports and fuel imports, or embrace refining, industrialisation, and domestic value creation.

He noted that President Tinubu’s reforms indicate awareness of these challenges, but long-term success hinges on consistent policy support for local production.

Kunle warned that Nigeria cannot afford to undermine the Dangote Refinery, describing it as one of the few large-scale industrial platforms with transformative potential.

He urged the current administration to support productive investment, enhance transparency, protect industrial capacity, and prioritise value creation over dependency.

“Nigeria must stop exporting crude and importing poverty. Nigeria must refine more of its own wealth,” Kunle concluded.