As Cameroon enters the decisive week before the 12 October presidential election, political fatigue and waning trust in the 92-year-old Paul Biya regime have created uncertainty about the country’s future.

On 4 October, a conference in support of opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary was held in France, organised by the French branch of his party, the Cameroon National Salvation Front (CNSF). Officially presented as an initiative of the Cameroonian diaspora, the event nonetheless highlighted France’s ongoing interest in the country’s political landscape.

Observers suggest that Paris may be preparing for a post-Biya era, quietly building new diplomatic relationships as Cameroon approaches what could be a defining transition. Analysts point out that Tchiroma, a long-time political figure, represents continuity and stability — qualities that may appeal to international partners wary of abrupt change. Unlike Senegal’s dramatic political shift in 2024, Cameroon’s opposition figures have largely emphasised steady reforms and the preservation of strategic partnerships.

In Cameroon, however, public opinion remains sharply divided. Some critics view Tchiroma as too close to France, a perception that could limit his appeal among younger, anti-establishment voters. Consequently, France appears to be treading cautiously, focusing on cultural and economic diplomacy rather than overt political involvement.

Diplomatic sources in Yaoundé note that France continues to engage with a range of political actors, including opposition voices such as Maurice Kamto, who, though excluded from the race, retains considerable influence. These meetings are described as part of France’s broader outreach and do not necessarily indicate endorsement of any candidate.

What seems clear is that France’s role in Cameroon’s political transition is evolving — from direct engagement to quiet observation. Whether this shift will foster genuine democratic renewal or merely preserve the status quo remains to be seen as Cameroonians head to the polls.