“An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes.” — Sun Tzu (544-496 BC)

Growing up, and until just less than 10 years ago, there was no time it ever occurred to me that things could go so deeply down south in our dear country, Nigeria, as they are now. But seeing the way things are rapidly turning out, I have prepared my mind for the worst, praying The Almighty to grant us the grace to endure, while hoping that the rapacious, gormandising power elite which has our country in its vise-grips might have a rethink and let us live.

It should be a matter of serious concern that in the 25 years, 1999-2024, that the nation returned to civil rule, the country has been hobbling from one avaricious, devouring regime to another, with each succeeding one besting its predecessor in incompetence and egotistical gluttony. If that were not so, is 25 years not enough time to fix the nation’s electricity problems? A child of 25 years, in our culture is of marriageable age, confirmed adult that can vote or be voted for.

Is 25 years not enough time to fix the nation’s moribund refineries and ensure local refining? Surely 25 years is enough time to revamp our infrastructure and enrich it, while at the same time ensuring that our educational system competes with the best the world has to offer. Instead, what do we have? A crude-centric, monocultural economy that is dependent on petroleum and its refined by-products. Clearly, Sun Tzu’s quotation above best describes the Nigerian power elite. Put simply, the people we have chosen to manage our affairs in the last quarter of a century are just evil.

For years, the nation’s four refineries remained comatose, while staff employed by them continue to earn salaries to the tune of billions of naira for work not done, which is crude refining. We were told that the Port Harcourt Refinery, whose TAM had allegedly been completed would resume operations last December. Since then, the goalpost has been shifted at least twice. Along the line, some men of means ventured into refining, as a result of which we now have some private refineries. 

Altogether, 23 refineries have been licensed to operate. Some of those already operating include WalterSmith Refinery in Ibigwe, Imo State; Edo Refinery and Petrochemical Company in Ikpoba-Okha LGA of Edo State; and the chief of them all, because of its sheer capacity of 650,000 bpd,which is the Dangote Refinery. Now, a lot of hope has been invested in the Dangote Refinery as a solution to the nation’s fuel energy problems by ordinary Nigerians, but it seems it is not yet Uhuru, as they say in Kenya. 

“Our worst enemies here are not the ignorant and simple, however cruel; our worst enemies are the intelligent and corrupt” — Graham Greene (1904-1991).

From all that has come to the public domain in the last fortnight or thereabouts, there is a deliberate and intentional bid to keep Nigerians shackled in poverty by ensuring perpetuation of the refined products importation regime through de-marketing of Dangote Refinery. Caveat emptor: I hold no brief from Dangote himself or his management team, but my simple conclusion since the president unthinkingly and without preparation removed subsidy on May 29, 2023 is that the Dangote Refinery can be used as a launchpad to ease the sufferings of Nigerians and reflate the economy. If the Nigerian state can negotiate with Dangote and supply crude on win-win terms for both sides, perhaps we can have a situation where by a litre of petrol could sell for between N350-400. That would bring a lot of relief since petrol subsidy removal is one of the key factors driving prices of food items skywards.

Now, angry and hungry citizens, particularly the youth segment are raring for a showdown with government and are planning protests. Naturally, the government is jittery since it calls to question the competence of everyone with a role to play in governance, starting from the president himself. If a child failed a class, he should be reprimanded by sanctioning in one form or the other. Clearly, in more than one year President Tinubu has been in office, he has failed woefully to renew hope as his campaign slogan promised. 

It is not out of place to tell the president so; we are all dealing with the indices as best as each can. Given other circumstances, I naturally will support the planned protests, but on this one, I balk. My reasons for not being in favour of protests at this time is that our country is on tenterhooks, and the incendiary materials for a huge conflagration are staring all of us in the face. I share the fears of many that the protests will spin out of control and degenerate into something the protesters and the rest of us did not have in mind. Amidst severe hunger occasioned by famine, hyper-inflation and pestilential insecurity, the only thing that is certain in Nigeria today is uncertainty.

You can wake up tomorrow to petrol scarcity or electric power systems collapse. You can get to the airport and your 8.am flight rescheduled for 4pm. You can be on any of the expressways and the road is blocked for any number of reasons. Dysfunction is the name of the Nigerian system as at now. But a philosopher king once said: “There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power of our will.” — Epictetus. How about that? In Nigeria? TGIF.