BY DEMOLA AKINYEMI

The race to the Ahmadu Bello Government House, the seat of power in Ilorin, the Kwara State Capital is to say the least very unpredictable. The coast is now clear and the potential governors in April 2011 gubernatorial elections have emerged.

Sen Gbemisola Saraki; Olusola Saraki; Gbenga Olawepo and Dele Belgore

Although, there are spirals of political parties in the state with their gubernatorial candidates, considering the structure and logistics on ground, the battle is strictly between the Sarakis and Dele Belgore.

The Saraki dynasty has been split over  the protracted political crisis within the family as a result of the gubernatorial ambition of Senator Gbemisola Saraki. According to the over 40 years pattern of Dr Olusola Saraki, she was openly endorsed and this has divided the family because the first born of the king-maker and the current political leader in the state, Governor Bukola Saraki of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is opposed to his sister succeeding him.

The governor’s stance pushed the elder Saraki and the senator to decamp to Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), where Gbemisola Saraki picked the guber ticket.

Other contenders
Aside the PDP and ACPN, another political party is the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, which sprung surprises at the last local government re run polls where it won the chairmanship seat and 12of the 13 wards.

Another seemingly serious political party is the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) of which Mr Gbenga Olawepo is the gubernatorial candidate. After his impressive performance in 2003 and 2007 elections, Olawepo ‘abandoned’  his supporters who for the want of survival decamped to the ruling PDP before his recent return to contest.

Other candidates in this league are Engr Maruf Bola Shittu of the United Nigerian Peoples Party, UNPP, who claimed to be championing a divine assignment to lead his people in 2011 and Alh. Bolaji Khaleel of the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP).

The kingmaker it would be recalled was angry that in spite of his open endorsement of his daughter Senator Gbemisola Saraki to take over from his brother in 2011, the PDP gubernatorial aspirants rather than concur as was the practice, swelled apparently in a seething anger, a development that led to the directive of the Second Republic Senate Leader to his teeming supporters to dump the party for a relatively unknown ACPN.

The load PDP candidate shoulders
The controversies that trailed the gubernatorial primaries of the PDP, which produced the commissioner for Economic Planning and Development, Alh Abdulfatah Ahmed have also failed to settle as the flag bearer has been crisscrossing the state and meeting other aggrieved aspirants to collapse their political structures to support him in the forthcoming  general election.

He is relying on the goodwill of Governor Saraki to do the magic for him.

Though, aspirants like Engr Sunday Adebayo Babalola, Chief Theophilus Bamigboye, Alh Bio Ibrahim, Sen  Mohammed Ahmed, Barr Rasaq Atunwa, Engr Wole Oke and Prof.  Shuaib Abdulraheem Oba  have pledged their support, others like Hon Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa [BOB], Alh Yekini Alabi and Sen Makanjuola Ajadi have refused to back down. Their grouse was that Abdulfatah Ahmed was imposed on them in spite of the earlier promise by the party that there would be a level playing ground.

Vanguard investigation revealed that the emergence of the PDP flag bearer was a product of zoning by the party leadership against the sole interest of the elder Saraki.

Dr Saraki’s political war-games
The Second Republic Senate Leader, a veteran political warlord is leaving no stone unturned to ensure the emergence of Senator Saraki as the next governor in the general election as members of PDP are already moving into the ANCP. He has heavily relied on the people over the years and this time around he believes that they will not disappoint him

Like it has never happened before within the Saraki dynasty the exit of  Gbemisola ,  herself a serving senator from the PDP  coupled with her father’s directive have thrown up  parallel aspirants in all elective offices across the two political parties which will make the contest very keen and quite unpredictable.

Aside Dr. Saraki’s political interest over his daughter’s ambition, there is the issue of gender in a seeming Islamic state like Kwara and the moral question that Kwara State belongs to all and sundry and should not be the exclusive preserve of the Saraki family alone.

There has been a deafening opposition to her candidature from Islamic clerics and this has created an unusual tension that should she forge ahead, some surprises could spring up.

ACN moves to exploit Saraki’s family feud
Vanguard further gahtered that the ACN gubernatorial candidate Alh Muhammed Dele Belgore and the leadership of the party of which Alh Lai Mohammed (the party’s  spokesman and also former gubernatorial candidate in the state) have been making deft moves to explore  these crises to their own advantage.

The calculations by ACN is that the people of Ilorin would ultimately vote in protest for Dele Belgore being a male, and from an equally renowned family in Ilorin while votes in Kwara South and North would be spilt.

The ACN, which is still savouring its landslide victory in Offa local  government re run election  and hoping to win the forthcoming guber polls, has dismissed insinuations that it won the council election because Dr. Saraki directed his supporters to vote for ACN candidates since his party ACPN did not register for the election.

The party’s spokesman Alh Lai Mohammed told Vanguard that those who reportedly dumped ACN over the ambition of Dele Belgore did not have effect on the victory of the party in the rerun election because the election took place after their exit. He added that Dr Olusola Saraki’s directive was also not true and described it as a political gimmick because ‘the opposition people of Offa and indeed Kwara are tired of the rulership of the Saraki dynasty in the state.’

Mohammed said that the people of Kwara should not be deceived that there was crisis in Saraki family.
“There is no crisis whatsoever. It is just a political strategy.

The strategy is that Gbemi should go and pick the guber ticket in ACPN because if they imposed her on the PDP, it would lead to total collapse of the party in the state. Let me also tell you this, that the Fatai Ahmed PDP ticket is an empty ticket because every follower of Saraki will vote for Gbemi and she will later dump the party and go back to PDP,” he said.

Time will tell where the pendulum of victory will swing to.