By Henry Umoru
FOLLOWING the release of electoral guidelines for primary elections by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP  after its 53rd National Executive Committee, NEC meeting held on Wednesday, 15th September, 2010 at the National Secretariat, Wadata Plaza, political tempo was immediately charged as the place literarily became a Mecca of sort.

The environment, especially the office of the National Organizing Secretary, Prince Uche Secondus, the office saddled with among others things, the responsibility of selling forms and collecting returned ones by the various aspirants became uncontrollable as party supporters accompanied their principals to the place for the collection of forms, just as praise singers gingered life into the almost lifeless self acclaimed largest party in Africa.

The Party, before the indefinite postponement, had fixed the emergence of its presidential candidate for October 23 while the governorship candidates were billed to emerge October 8.

Thereafter, aspirants were at the National secretariat of the party to collect and submit forms for various political offices.

For the office of the President of the country, the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan has not only declared his interest to contest, but has picked and submitted his forms, former Military President, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar, immediate past National Security Adviser to the President, General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau and Kwara State governor, Dr. Bukola Saraki have also picked and submitted their nomination forms at the Party’s National Secretariat.

Though some of the presidential aspirants collected forms by proxy, but because the leadership of the party insisted that all aspirants must be at the National Secretariat to submit the forms themselves, no one disobeyed the party, not even the leader and President of the country, Dr Jonathan; they were all there to return their forms in person.

While at the National Secretariat to submit his forms, Gov Bukola Saraki who was quite optimistic of getting the party’s ticket, boasting that his chances of winning were  very bright, stressed that he was banking on both  his achievements as Kwara state governor and his age, adding that the type of leadership Nigeria needs is one who belongs to the younger generation that would have the energy to substantially transform Nigeria.

For General Aliyu Mohammed  Gusau he would support any candidate that emerges at the end of the consensus arrangement to get a single person among the four aspirants to represent the North, even as he said that the issue of presidency in 2011 has nothing to do with generational shift, but all about the ability to deliver.

“It is not a generational shift. It is the capability to deliver. If an old man is capable of delivering the good, so let it be. Mohammed Ali, founder of the modern Egypt, he was in his 80’s when he developed Egypt to what it is up till now.  The great miracle of China, the economic recovery, was initiated by a man of 87 years. Abdullahi Wade is in his mid 80’s in Senegal and he is doing extremely well.”

While at the PDP Secretariat to submit his forms, former Military President, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida said he will not step down for anybody ahead of and during the party’s primaries, but carpeted his political opponents on North/South divide, describing it as “idiotic to say north and South”.

But Atiku confirmed that the campaign organisations of all the presidential aspirants from the North were already discussing with a view to presenting a common aspirant to represent the region against President Jonathan,

Below are the aspirants and their chances
President  Jonathan hails from Bayelsa, South South region of the country. He was a university lecturer before his entry into politics.

As a Vice President, he was very loyal to his boss, late President Umaru Yar’Adua, With the demand for power shit to the South/South, the president besides having the advantage of incumbency, is sure of getting the entire states in the South South geo-political zone, except may be Rivers where he will need to  work  harder because of the political polarization of the state.

He is also sure of getting some of the States in the North especially with the appointments of Isa Yuguda of Bauchi as one the state Coordinators for North-East,  Ibrahim Shema of Katsina for  North-West and Gabriel  Suswam of  Benue  State for North-Central.

He is also sure of non PDP states like Borno. Yuguda may need the Borno State governor, Senator Ali Modu Sherriff to reach out to some major stakeholders from Bauchi if they must work with him, and the luck he has is that these personalities like the FCTA Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Ahmed Yayale, others are in Jonathan’s government, so they must work with the Bauchi  governor for the realization of the President’s aspiration.

For the South West, with the appointment of Gbenga Daniel of Ogun and a combination of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Jonathan will get the State and the other states in the zone.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar served under ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, and before then, he was elected as the governor of Adamawa State. Atiku is a schemer, an astute politician as well as a founding member of the PDP.

He is loved and he has the money, but he is just recovery from the political stress he went through in his state when the governor, Murtala Nyako fought him and refused him the waiver until the party at last NEC meeting granted him a waiver to contest.

At his declaration, his crowd cannot be compared to that of President Jonathan against the backdrop that he used the Congress Hall of the Transcorp Hilton Hotel while the President used the Eagle Square.

He is no doubt one of the aspirants that is sellable from the North to other parts of the country and the issue of a consensus candidate from the North may also favour him.

Former Military President Ibrahim Babangida ruled this country for eight years and he was popularly called “Maradona”. During his time as Military President, he made friends across the country, he used best brains to carry on with the job of governance, he introduced some policies and programmes that were good, but some like SAP sapped the country.

He is a founding member of the PDP, he is a leader in the party, an “emperor’ in Minna with his hill top empire. IBB as he is called has money to run his campaigns, but what he has against him are quite many, the South West especially, Ogun state people cannot forget in a jiffy what happened to their son, late Chief Moshood Kasimawo Abiola.

General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau’s name is synonymous with National Security Adviser, NSA. Before he joined the race he had served as NSA under three presidents. He is popular in the security circle, but not in the new environment he has found himself. He may have the money, but Gusau politically still need to begin to have new friends who are politicians. He may be sure of getting his home state, Zamfara and Sokoto.

Also what may work against him is his age as there are calls for generational shift especially from Northern youths.

Dr. Bukola Saraki
He is the Present governor of Kwara State, the Chairman, Nigerian Governors’ Forum. Before now, he was a Special Assistant to former President Obasanjo. He is rounding off his eight year term in his state, so he cannot come back as governor of the state. He is from the North that is also insisting on Zoning and that the zone must have it.

Saraki is a member of PDP, his father, Chief Abubakar Saraki is a very strong politician in Kwara , but the game has gone beyond the state.

Saraki performed well in Kwara especially in the areas of Agriculture, Information Technology, Infrastructure, among others and he may be favoured by the cry for generational shift, as he is a young man.

But what may work against him is his inability to have his fellow governors on his side.