By Sunny Ikhioya

Understanding our economy with clarity and vision is not a normal process. Even those in government hardly find unanimity in their presentations. An example is the supposed difference in the presentation by the minister of finance, Wale Edun, and that of the President Bola Tinubu on meeting revenue targets. This thing did not start today. President Babangida was once quoted to have been surprised by the resilience of the Nigerian economy in the face of severe battering from different quarters. 

It has remained the same, it never changes – shadowy, opaque, cabal like – that is the way it is run. President Buhari had to succumb to the economy of numbers. This was a man who claimed he had run the oil ministry in the previous years and did not understand how the subsidy regime could be defended as legitimate. When he got to power, he lost all sense of bearing. That is what the presidency of the federal Republic of Nigeria could do to a rational mind. We boasted that President Tinubu had a sound pedigree in finance and economic management. 

His record in Lagos state was impressive, but barely two years into his regime as President of the federal Republic of Nigeria, people still couldn’t simplify our economic policies. It does not make sense. What is it, in our economic dynamics, that has made it so impervious to commonsense logic? Why do we have a nation rich in human and natural resources, yet we remain a poor country? How do we have the biggest black nation on earth, rich in diversity, yet hosting the largest population of poor people on earth? What a contradiction! What a paradox! It never used to be so. It was once a nation, richly agrarian and able to feed itself. The source of our wealth was known, and our seaports were hubs of activities for export. 

Now, the reverse is the case. Vessels now come in here with cargoes loaded and sail back empty. We have become the biggest importers of our own finished raw materials and heavily depend on foreign aids and direction. We have also become rudderless, and economic situations become simply unexplainable to a sitting president and have remained so tlil today. To the glory of God, the country still boasts of capable and resilient individuals who are ready to stick out their necks in halting this drift but the structural and institutional decay had dug in real deep, making the system to fight back with all viciousness. 

That is what is happening to the Dangote refinery, a refinery that the government has bought into as a bona-fide share holder, with all the promises of a mutually beneficial settlement between the refinery and government. What happened? With its interest in the refinery not withstanding, the agents of government went ahead to engage in future sales of our crude oil, with agreements that span over a couple of years. By the time the Dangote refinery was ready for production, there were no feed stock to service it.

That was the beginning of the confusion. People were saying that Dangote should have secured his crude oil source before engaging in such a gigantic project. That is our way. The government is solely in charge of the crude oil business in Nigeria, and the gentleman has informed everyone concerned about his intentions, and we all applauded him. The next thing was to reduce our buying commitment to the refinery. 

A promise of about 20 per cent of investment was reduced to about 7 per cent, and there began a back and forth struggle between the agents of government and owners of the refinery. Something that should be a thing of joy to all Nigerians turned into a “roforofo” type of battle between interests. Today, the Dangote refinery still imports crude oil feed stock from abroad. With the determination of the owners, fuel supply has somewhat stabilised in the country, and people are experiencing a hitch free season after a long time. It is also a thing of joy that the price of petrol has come down significantly from almost 1000 naira to less than 800 naira in major filling stations affiliated to the refinery. The question that comes next is why the price of the dollar is still quoted so highly in our foreign exchange market? Are there some controlling interests keeping the foreign exchange at such scaringly exorbitant rates? 

I am asking here because it is noticed that the price of petrol as determined by the Dangote refinery is the only thing coming down. Transport fares, especially the airlines, have skyrocketed, same as other household goods and imported items. In the past, the prices of petrol were what determined the changes in the foreign exchange and other markets. Immediately, there is an upward review of petrol prices, every other thing goes up along with it. It’s been close to a month since the Dangote refinery announced a downward trend in the prices of their products, and other items have remained relatively high. 

Why is the pattern changing? It is becoming akin to Fela’s “Overtake ” song, where the poor man saving to buy a fan does not seem to get the money completed, each time the goal post is shifted. There is no rational reason on earth our naira should be exchanging for above 1000 to the dollar. Whatever the official reasons, whether local or international, should be discounted. So many things are happening, with foreign policies of Trump and sister nations imposing travel bans on Nigerians, the appetite for foreign travels have reduced, coupled with the huge flight costs, people have tended to put a halt on foreign travels. 

All of these should be reflected in our foreign exchange market. This is why the understanding of our economy appears to be in reverse when we compare with happenings at other climes. It will be good for the authorities to address those intervening variables causing the distortions. The new year begins in two day’s time, so let it start with practical steps to actualize the so much touted renewed hope.