By Gideon Obhakhan

A few months ago, I wrote an article titled “Factors that may shape Edo 2024 Gubernatorial Election”. In that article I shared my unbiased views as regards current standing of the three major political parties as at that time. That was at the early stage of the campaigns when the parties had finalised their choices of candidates to fly their flags.

Since then, all the political parties have gone to the field to convince the voting public why their respective parties should be voted into power in Edo State on the 21st of September 2024. As the events unfolded and campaigns took center stage in Edo, different factors began to change from a weighting perspective. Issues that mattered at the beginning began to give way for new and more tangible ones. With the major political parties winding down their campaigns now, the direction of the pendulum is clear. This piece attempts to give a view of how the candidate cum political parties stand with less than a week to the election.

For the Labour Party, which is relatively a young political party in Edo State, the mountain appears to be too high for them to climb. This is largely because no significant effort has been put into building a strong party structure across the State for grassroots mobilisation. This lack of structure has created more problems for the party because the people who left the traditional parties to join Labour Party because of the Obidient Movement hype, have since become orphans and are gradually returning to their original bases.

The candidate of the party, Olumide Akpata has also not done a lot of legwork which is expected of a greenhorn like him in order to break the deep-rooted structures that have been built by the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the All Progressives Congress, APC over the years. His major strategy appears to be television appearances and adverts where he dances to the popular music, “Who’s Your Guy?”. Unfortunately, winning an election in a State like Edo goes beyond dancing on national television. The light of the Labour Party as far as the election is concerned, is very dim. Victory for Labour Party will be analogous to the Biblical miracle of turning water to wine.

The PDP on the other hand, has done more work in the field than the Labour Party. Although the party has continued to fragment with the exit of key political players like the deputy governor, former senators, house or representatives members, the party members have continued to keep their feet on the pedal hoping to get victory at the end of the day. The major challenge however, has remained the incumbent governor’s “unforgivable sins”. For some reason, the governor is unable to change his old habits at old age. He continues to pick the wrong fight and has remained arrogantly adamant about his tactics without showing any sign of remorse.

Just recently, when the PDP held their final rally in Benin City, His Excellency, Mr Godwin Obaseki took the Party’s entourage to the home of the Esama of Benin, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, as against the usual practice of visiting the Oba of Benin. This confirmed the long-standing affront on the Bini traditional institution. This singular act may have nailed the coffin for the PDP especially within Edo South Senatorial district. The people strongly believe that an injury to the revered Monarch is an injury to all. This has also inevitably rubbed off on Asue Ighodalo, who people believe should have advised Obaseki were they not birds of a feather. The general assumption is that he will continue to disrespect the Oba since he has failed to tame Obaseki’s excesses in this regard.

The candidate of the PDP, Asue Ighodalo started well by reaching out to those who matter across his political party and beyond. He also did his best to distance himself from Obaseki to avoid being tagged as Obaseki’s stooge. However, his efforts towards dissociating himself from Obaseki’s poor performance haven’t yielded positive results as the opposition party has continued to remind him that he remains the chairman of the administration’s flagship economic body, Alaghodaro. He has since given up trying and resigned to fate.

Asue has also struggled in the campaign rallies to focus on issues and present the homebody posture to the voters after being embarrassed by public outcry when he took an interpreter to his village to talk to his people. He has since come down from King’s English to pidgin English and struggles at every moment to show the look and feel of a grassroot politician. However, the heart shines brighter than words and outward posturing, and the people, especially those of Esan extraction, continue to see him as a stranger. It has become clear that it is very difficult to become a homeboy overnight. These challenges will make it very difficult for PDP to win the election. The party may garner more votes than the Labour Party, but it is unlikely to give them overall victory.

For the APC, the legacies of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole have continued to be the major selling point for the party. Obaseki’s poor performance has further amplified Oshiomhole’s achievements, and the APC has latched unto this for the campaigns. The Esan people for instance have continued to lament the level of decay in Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma which the incumbent governor starved of funds as against Oshiomhole’s massive support for the institution. This has endeared the people to the APC as a political party.

Another advantage the APC has is that the candidate of the party, Senator Monday Okpebholo, popularly called Akpakomiza, has done more legwork than other candidates. He has sufficiently presented himself to the people as one of their own and has been largely accepted as such. His posture and countenance give the impression of a governor that will be people focused and someone that will act rather than yapping. This advantage is particularly important in a State that is currently witnessing a governor that has signed many Memoranda of Understanding, MoU for projects that haven’t been implemented over the last eight years.

As it stands, a huge percentage of voters have made up their minds on which political party to vote. As the candidates and members of the parties continue to mop up some of the undecided voters, the Pendulum’s direction is clearly in favour of the APC. However, it is not over until it is over. Fingers crossed!

 Gideon Obhakhan is former Edo State Commissioner for Education, and member of the Governing Council, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State