By Ochereome Nnanna

THE whistle for the end of campaigns will be blown by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, soon. All the political cacophonies of the past roughly one year will fall quiet. Talk about the calm before the storm. Yes, indeed, it will be a storm of sorts when the next President, Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is announced by INEC.

For Nigeria, a new era will open —for better or worse. It will be largely down to the choices we make this weekend. The campaigns have done their job of displaying the candidates like wares in the market or shop window for all to see, hear, and examine before “buying.” In this election, we have three major candidates: Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC; and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

The fourth visible candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian People’s Party, NNPP, is a regional fixation. He was the only candidate who did not campaign in some states in the South. He could play the role of dousing the commanding influences of the APC and PDP in the core Muslim North. In the event of a runoff, he will be even more strategic in swinging the final ballot. Though Tinubu’s “suicide bomber,” Governor Nasir el-Rufai, called Obi a “Nollywood actor,” it was his candidate that actually provided tons of materials for thespian Nigeria. Tinubu’s hilarious gaffes, mantis dances, refusal to participate in debates and town halls, procurement of fake bishops, adoption of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, health issues (he needed to be propped up and spoon-fed with things to say during rallies), insults on his opponents (including President Buhari), and propaganda-based campaign demonstrated him to be more of a showman than a serious presidential candidate.

Few people can remember what Tinubu promised Nigerians. He started by undertaking to continue Buhari’s legacies, but when the latter took decisions that disfavoured him, Tinubu attacked the president and sent several Northern governors and party leaders to do the same. This is the first time in our history that the candidate of a ruling party fought his departing president so openly on the campaign trail! Of the four aforementioned presidential candidates, Tinubu has been the most violence-prone.

He showed this in terms of preparations for the elections in his home base, Lagos. In addition to the MC Oluomo thugs, he established the “Jagaban Army,” which wears military-like uniforms. He exhorted his team to “fight for it, grab it.” If Tinubu wins the election, can we really expect this man to be a peace-loving president?

The only thing that consoles those who know Tinubu is that, no matter how backward his politics may be, he will not have mediocre officials in his cabinet. He knows how to build performing teams, and he has a knack for forward thinking. He also has an equally visionary deputy, Kashim Shettima. Forget about the propaganda about his involvement with terrorists. I don’t believe a word of that. If the partnership between Tinubu and Shettima continues to work, a Tinubu presidency might still surprise Nigerians with some good governance. 

Atiku Abubakar ran a very uneventful campaign. Apart from the mudslinging between his men and Tinubu’s men, and Governor Wike’s childish distractions, Atiku stayed focused. I am not sure what the South, which in 2019 was his main base, can do for him this time around. The PDP may pay dearly for the consequences of denying the South-East its right to produce the president under its rotational arrangement just because of Atiku and Iyorchia Ayu’s personal ambitions.

Obi has confiscated the South-East and South-South, the PDP’s main political bases. For that matter, I don’t know how Atiku will fare in the North, where the APC, with its 14 governors, remains the party to beat. If Atiku wins, he may relaunch former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s governing template and devolve some power. The fear is that he will continue to support Fulani herdsmen terrorism, which appears to have gone on a French vacation. His large family may also get heavily embedded in his government in a manner that could disturb our lives.

Peter Obi was the most energetic and inventive campaigner. He met Nigerians at home and abroad. He stormed the campuses, markets, and refugee camps. He dominated the social media, powered by the Obidient Movement, a spontaneous, independent coalition of largely self-financed and motivated youth volunteers. Where Atiku, Tinubu, and Kwankwaso represented the old “PDAPC” order, Obi is the proverbial new wine in the new wine skin. His aspiration catches the fancy of people beyond Nigeria’s shores—Nigerians and non-Nigerians alike. If the Nigerian electorate is interested in creating a new Nigeria, Obi will be the easy choice.

However, during the campaigns, Obi seemed to run “alone” with his running mate, Yusuf Datti-Ahmed, and a handful of campaign staff. The Chairman of the Party, Julius Abure, barely tagged along. It was more about Obi than the Labour Party. He did not integrate the party’s candidates enough into the vortex of his campaign to enable the Obidient Movement to rub off on them. I didn’t see him carrying the frontline governorship candidates, such as Abia State’s Alex Otti and Lagos’ Gbadebo Vivour-Rhodes, far enough. Perhaps it had to do with the dynamics of a small party that grew into a major contender virtually overnight. If Peter Obi wins, there will be sweeping changes. Some of them might bite as hard as Buhari’s naira policy, but if properly implemented, Nigeria will be fully reset, progressively.

 Now, it is all in our hands. Whatever we choose will bless or haunt us for the next eight years!