By SOLA EBISENI  

AS the race for the office of the President of Nigeria fiercely rages, the hurdles before the parties are such that no one could reasonably predict who the Amusan would invariably be. The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP,  is the most enduring and resilient political party, yet this very strength is its albatross and weakness.

The All Progressives Congress,APC, is a cult ruled by two idols: its strength lies in the management of the mutual suspicion between the cult leaders. The Labour Party is coming from the cold led by a buffalo soldier; its strength lies in the ability to connect the troops with the generalissimo.

As we noted in this column on August  23, PDP  remains the most structurally entrenched political party in Nigeria. Birthed by a conglomerate of political associations and groupings,  some of them strange bedfellows in the nation’s political history, PDP has blended into a most formidable political machine without the cleavages of domination by person or tribe. 

 It is a veritable political incubator in which several gladiators were nursed and from which other political parties recruit.

 Its life and strength are defined by the foundational covenant that political offices, particularly the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, be zoned and rotated on South/ North basis. Even in heterogeneous states, the office of the Governor be zoned on Senatorial district basis, which invariably imbued all regions and tribes with a sense of belonging in the party.

This philosophical structure is what sustains the party and not the orchestrated physical structure of having members and offices in every ward and polling units. The physical structure is the easiest to build in our case where there are no philosophical or ideological differences in the parties except for their logo. Thus, each time the PDP has lost any election carelessly it is traceable to the breach of the zoning covenant.

History has a way of repeating itself. In 2014, when the Northern caucus of the party felt it was their turn, the war against Goodluck Jonathan seeking his own second term, which was then legitimate, was fought by the entire North and across party lines. Most of the leaders from the North were implacable; they either decamped or stayed put to wreak havoc therein.

Murtala Nyako, Governor of Adamawa State on the platform of the PDP in a memo titled: ‘On-Going Full-Fledged Genocide in ‘Northern Nigeria’, dated April 16, 2014 accused the Federal Government of harbouring “mass murderers/cut-throats imbedded in our legitimate and traditional Defence and Security organisations”.  According to him: “Cases  of mass murders by Federal Government’s bloody-minded killers and cut-throats are well known, but it attributes the killings to so-called Boko-Haram”.

Suggesting that the war against Boko Haram was only a ruse Nyako said: “We no longer accept, let alone believe, that our prominent Mallams in the Mosques in Kano and Zaria have been killed by ‘innocent’ Boko-Haram members”.

Kashim Shetima the Governor of Borno and present Vice Presidential candidate of  the APC did not hide his disdain for President Jonathan whom he lambasted in the crudest form, in international media, for hiding under Boko Haram war to unleash genocide on the North. 

Thus, at his inauguration for second term on May 29, 2015 he boasted triumphantly, saying: “With our votes, we threw out a government at the centre, which did not work in the national interest and have now voted into power, President Muhammadu Buhari, who is also being inaugurated today”.

 A rally of  Arewa Consultative Forum, Northern Elders Forum, Code Group, Northern Re-awakening Forum, Arewa Research and Development Project, Northern Union and Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation held on September 15, 2014, adopted the Nyako thesis all in the bid to blackmail Jonathan and seize power from him.

There is no gainsaying that the cry of the North resonated with the South and Jonathan was swept out of power. Nonetheless, PDP remains strong and won elections in states where they adhered to the political arrangements.

However, the weakness of the PDP is its physical structure, for it is assumed that the control of the executive at any level is the surest guarantee of electoral success. The fear of not losing the party structure in the event of the unpredictable outcome of  the elections is the reason Dr. Iyorchia Ayu is being prevailed upon not to resign contrary to his pledge to do so if the National Chairman emerged also from the North.

The zoning formula of the PDP has also been adopted by other parties. Unlike the PDP,  the APC is largely a gang up of two leaders of cult followership.  The rather non-conformist Governor Akeredolu  of  Ondo State put the APC arrangement most succinctly when assuring in September 2021 that the issue of Southern presidency would gain momentum when Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu returned from his medical trip abroad saying: “He is our leader in the South and the one we call our Capone.” The other  Capone is Muhammad Buhari of the Northern hemisphere.

Unlike the PDP, any of  the two Capone has the capacity to determine even the corporate existence of the APC. This realisation was the reason the gladiators, especially the Northern governors capitulated to the ‘emilokan declaration’.

Yet, it is not Uhuru with the party. It is doubtful if Shetima, Tinubu’s running mate,  is a core member of the CPC cult which is ever the first consideration of President Buhari in his political permutations.

The South-West/North-East or better still, the Yoruba/Kanuri ticket, is as disturbing to the Hausa/Fulani interest as the Muslim-Muslim ticket to the Middle Belt Christian elements. The Hausa/Fulani, particularly of the North-West, could not imagine an arrangement where they are neither number one nor two.

Both Kanuri and Fulani loom large in the North with the latter having an edge in mutual suspicion. That explained why Abubakar Tafawa Balewa from a minority Gere tribe rather than Sir Shettima Ibrahim of Kanuri  would be conceded the position  of the Prime Minister. In retrospect, the present APC combination is exactly like that of Chief MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe. I am not saying that was one of the reasons the election was annulled.

The Labour Party has been roundly regarded as a party without structure. The structure in this sense is viewed from the point of the number of political bigwigs in the  camp, its presence in every ward and polling units and the financial capacity to navigate the federation in search of votes.

Nonetheless, the rate of attack on Peter Obi  and his Labour Party does not suggest an irrelevant contender. In several media channels, syndicated opinions targeting Peter Obi personally are legion.

In  any case, experience has shown that it does not require several years to put up those physical structures, citeris paribus. If the party is truly Labour- oriented, it carries with it the image of Aluta for a new way of doing things which explains why it appears attractive to the youths. It is left to be seen if the party and its candidate has the support of the Labour movement, for if it does, its structure is not in small measure. 

By and large, the party is still only coming from the cold, bursting lose, the dimension of which is not yet predictable. Its presidential combination appears to be the only one in perfect conformity  with the contemporary thinking of a Southern President paired by a Northern Deputy and if you like, you can add faith and harmony to it.

Nigeria, we hail thee.

Ebiseni is Secretary General, Afenifere.