By Dele Sobowale

 “Talk is cheap”; as we all know. Buhari, who had no plan for governance while running for office, succeeded in 2015. On May 29, 015, he announced that “4000MW of power is unacceptable”. Nigerians believed him and heaved sighs of relief.

We were happy that we have elected a President who realises that adequate power provision is the most important element for rapid economic and social development.  Six years and ten months after he assumed office, the President, his officials and everybody in the All Progressives Congress, APC, have resorted to lying on a monumental scale about their achievements on power. They are copying from Hitler’s playbook.

LYING AS OFFICIAL POLICY

“The greatest masses of the people…will more easily fall victims to a great lie than to a small one.”,  Adolf Hitler, 1889-1945.

 A few weeks ago, Shehu Garba, the Senior Special Adviser on Media, a former President of the Guild of Editors, went on Channels TV to announce that the Buhari administration has delivered “200 times more power than it inherited”. Garba, who spent years as a journalist trained to understand that “Facts are sacred”, did not say the Buhari government provided 20 or 200 per cent more.  He announced without any remorse 200 times more. Even a primary five pupil knows the difference between 20%, 200% and 200 times. Shehu also knows the difference. So, the falsehood was deliberate; as you will see shortly.

 The current Minister of Power has joined the group of those uttering untruths about what was achieved in almost seven years. The truth will make you shed tears for Nigeria; that we elected Buhari in 2015 and re-elected him in 2019.

WHERE DO WE STAND NOW?

“Truth is seldom comfortable for those with uneasy conscience”.

VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 245

 Three national newspapers, to which I subscribe, ran stories on March 14, 2022 on power generation, transmission and distribution – DAILY INDEPENDENT, PUNCH and VANGUARD; in alphabetical order. If the three Editors had met and decided to contradict Buhari’s administration, they could not have done a better job. Let me start with VANGUARD.

“Generation plummets to 1,393MW”.  The report went on to state that “Checks by VANGUARD showed that, as at 5pm yesterday, national grid supply was just 1,393 megawatts with only nine plants generating to the grid.” This is happening almost seven years after Buhari pronounced 4,000MW “unacceptable”.

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DAILY INDEPENDENT gave us a rare insight into the progress, or actually lack of it, with respect to average daily power supply for a few years. The table below summarises the situation beyond dispute.

The first thing the reader should notice is the generating capacity. The FG, its spokesmen and the APC have been going about boasting  about the “improvements” they have made to power generation since 2015. But, the figures tabulated above were provided by Dr Joy Ogaji, Executive Director of the Association of Power Generating Companies, APGC. Even a dunce can see clearly that actual generating capacity was higher in 2015 than in 2021. Shehu Garba’s statement on Channel Television has been exposed for what it is. But, don’t expect these people to stop saying what is not true. Wait until the next address by President Buhari to the world; and read what he will say.      

DISCOS, TCN AND GENCOS PASSING THE BUCK

“Truth is the highest thing that man may keep.” Geoffrey Chaucer, 1304-1400

VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 253.

 Unfortunately, it is the first thing discarded once people enter Aso Rock; or are appointed to any office with great responsibilities attached. The top managers of the Distribution, DISCOS, Transmission, TCN and Generating Companies, GenCos had kept quiet while FG officials went about spreading falsehood. But, as the power supply was collapsing about them, each sector wants to exonerate itself from blame before the inevitable happens. They are also aware that we now have a lame duck President; as well as one old and very tired. So, there is now a lot of buck passing going on. Read how the papers summarised what is going on.

  “GenCos Link Poor Electricity Supply To Inefficient Grid Management.”

DAILY INDEPENDENT.

“Gencos disagree with TCN over outages; blame weak transmission.”  PUNCH

“Energy crisis: GenCos blame N1.64trn debt for lower power supply.”

VANGUARD.

These are all valid reasons up to a point. But, they merely scratch the surface of the impending trouble which Buhari will bring about before he leaves office next year; or the booby trap he will lay for his successor. Whoever that unlucky man might be, he might arrive in Aso Rock just as all our generating units collapse. Here is why.

GENERATING UNITS DAMAGED ALMOST BEYOND REPAIRS

“Gargage In Garbage Out, GIGO.”

 That was computer language in the early days when we had to learn special languages like Fortran to operate computers. Nowhere is this more relevant than in the selection of people to work for an organisation. A company is known by the people it employs. The power sector, like the oil sector, is now being managed by people who should not be there. It is perhaps no coincidence that the national black-out occurred at the same time we are experiencing fuel scarcity; and diesel has climbed up to N780 per litre. Put the wrong people in charge of anything and you can expect garbage for results.  One of those involved in the blame game actually revealed why we are headed for bigger trouble ahead. Read this.

“The GenCos are supposed to start and stop at most 20 times a year, but, in Nigeria, the GenCos start and stop 365 days every year and this wear and tear is affecting the plants…

Most of the electricity generated in Nigeria, about 80 per cent come from gas-fired turbines…GenCos have consistently been dealing with unending gas-related challenges. Issues of gas volume, gas quality, gas pressure and gas transportation have consistently curtailed capacity utilization by GenCos thereby affecting generation.”

 Siemens and General Electric, suppliers of most of our turbines are fed up with Nigeria. And, anybody who like me has had experience with a continuous process plant would understand that Nigerians are demolishing the turbines by ignoring the Operation Manuals and operating them as we like. Consequently, any turbine more than five years old is now probably a wreck; and will only get worse. Nigerians should expect more frequent blak-outs henceforth.

P.S. I am writing this article on the fourth day of black-out with expensive fuel.

GENCOS  CAPACITY  AND  QUANTITY  TAKEN

Year    capacity   taken by discos   stranded

2015           6661MW      3606MW                     3010MW

2016                                                                3828MW

2017                                                                3312MW

2018                                                                3699MW

2019                                                                3599MW

2020                                                                3742MW

2021      6,336MW                                          2,246MW