By Dr. Dele Shobowale 

PREAMBLE

“Happy New Year Baba.” A group of young boys returning from an all-night party called out to an old man living in a kiosk.

“What is so happy about it; I don’t have anything to eat today.” That was the blunt reply.

January 1, 2021.

When the request came for this article – a forecast of what Nigerians should expect in 2022 – the first port of call was to the old man who still lives in the kiosk. The kiosk has been his home ever since he was evicted from his one room in a dilapidated slum house for failure to pay rent for over two years.

It was not his fault. At over 70, he has no job; he is no longer employable and cannot afford to pay for another room. So, he lives a kiosk. If the Federal Government should go ahead with the plan to scrap fuel subsidy and pay N5000 a month to 40 million Nigerians, then there is one man in Lagos Island who should qualify in every respect. What to eat is for him and thousands others a daily challenge. 

After parting with one thousand naira, he was asked three questions. “Has your condition improved since Buhari became President? Is 2021 a happy year for you? Do you expect 2022 to be a Happy New Year?”

Without a moment’s hesitation he replied. “No.” Pressed further why the pessimism; he answered. “Food first. I will still wake up everyday in 2022 not sure of having anything to eat.”

If you expect to read good predictions about 2022, then be warned. Go and read something else. Forecasting is not fairy tales with happy endings.

DEFINERS OF NIGERIA’S FATE IN 2022

Christmas 2021 glided away like a mirage; for most Nigerians, there was nothing merry about it. It was absolutely dreary.

Forecasting the next 365 days in a complex nation like Nigeria, with innumerable uncertainties, is as difficult a task as one can undertake. Anyone doing it is a prophet, a scientist and a crystal ball gazer rolled into one. Nobody should expect one hundred per cent success. 

To make the daunting task a bit easier for myself , only a few major issues, which will definitely determine the fate of the nation in the coming year, will receive attention. Other matters, though important will be left untouched. The list includes the following: insecurity, economy, politics and governance, food security, education, pandemics,cyber crimes, illicit drugs, Election 2023 and leadership.

Given the constraints of space, most of the forecasts will be rendered in bullet points. I am aware that this might convey the impression of shallowness of thought. It is a risk attending summarising a lot of information. I will accept any criticism on that score as legitimate. Nevertheless, every attempt will be made to provide supporting evidence where absolutely necessary.

In the end, it is expected that the reader will file this piece away until December 31, 2022 and then determine how accurate the forecasts have been. I think that is fair to all concerned. In the meantime, individuals and corporate entities might want to get in touch to obtain advice concerning how to mitigate the disasters about to unfold this year. Even in the midst of chaos, there are opportunities created for those who can take advantage of them.

INSECURITY

“BANDITRY: Tension in North as groups plan shutdown of states.”

“Outrage as Nigeria loses 964 security agents in one year.”

The fact that 322 policemen and 642 soldiers were killed in Nigeria within the last one year reflects several facts which point to heightened insecurity in 2022.

• loss of monopoly in the use of violence by security agencies

• sharp increase in the number of sophisticated weapons in the hands of jihadists, bandits, kidnappers, dissidents, smugglers

• Nigerian security agents  spread thin and incapable of defending the country from internal enemies

• corruption in the security agents

• expect more violence in 2022 as politicians recruit and arm their “stalwarts”.

This came in just as the article was being reviewed. It summarises our predicament beautifully: “but the truth of the matter is that our military and police are very few in number and they are over-stretched”. Governor El-Rufai of Kaduna State, December 21, 2021, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

ECONOMY

“Morning shows the day.”  We found out early in 2015 that we elected a President who knows very little about economic management; and who is obviously unwilling to learn. He is now in the twilight of his tenure; 2020 will be the last full year. The consequences will be dire and destructive. Expect these:

• fuel subsidy removal and its disastrous repercussions – hyper-inflation, purchasing power loss, lower industrial capacity utilisation, job losses

• given the Federal Government of “borrow and spend” Nigerians can expect more loans; by the second half over 55% of revenue will go into debt servicing; the third generation of Nigerians will be drawn into the debt trap this year

• exchange rate will rise over N600/US$1

• more Nigerians will dive below poverty line

• corrupt disbursement of subsidy fund to 40 million ghost Nigerians will follow subsidy removal

• lower crude output than budgeted is certain; only about 35% of rigs are pumping crude

• very low Foreign Direct Investment, FDI should be expected; investors are not crazy; nobody invests in a country where busloads of people are burnt alive by their own fellow citizens

• maximum power generation and distribution will not exceed 5,300MW; and it will not be steady

• with low power supply persisting, GDP growth for 2022 will be no more than 3 per cent

POLITICS/GOVERNANCE

“Politicians are their own grave diggers. 

William Rogers, 1879-1935, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 191

It will not be so bad if they only dig their own graves. But, every four years, they create several hundred widows, abandon governance and end up giving the nation a bad name after the elections. So, for 2022 we should expect the following:

• Buhari as a lame duck President will gradually lose control

• The political parties will add their violence to the existing ones

• Politics takes precedence over governance. President and Governors will abandon Government Houses for campaign trails

• Governors want subsidy removal to enable them pay public sector bills. Public servants constitute less than two per cent of workers. They intend to fleece the rest of us, 98 per cent, to pay the tiny minority.

• Bribery of voters will return – until Election 2023; then it will stop. Nigerian politicians know that you can fool voters every four years and get away with it.

• All Progressives Congress, APC, might fail to agree on a candidate; the party will crack up irrespective of who emerges as Presidential candidate.

• Chief Bisi Akande’s recently released book MY PARTICIPATIONS has achieved at least two negative unintended consequences for Asiwaju Tinubu if he actually wants to run for the Presidency. One, it has made rallying round the South West more difficult. Two, it has confirmed that Buhari and Tinubu actually conspired to foist a Muslim-Muslim ticket on the APC in 2015; and Akande was in support of it. An alarm has been sounded to Christians with respect to 2023. Beware of those with the Muslim-Muslim agenda; while pretending otherwise.

FOOD SECURITY

“The United Nations has revealed earlier this year that 2.9 million people are displaced in the region due to insecurity.” #Northisbleeding# protesters.

By now the number of Internally Displaced Persons, IDPs, in the North must have exceeded 3.5 million. Most lived in rural communities before disaster struck; forcing them to flee. Over 70 per cent are farmers. So about 2.45 million farmers are now idle; so are the farms. Food security id threatened by that fact alone. But, there are more perils making serious food scarcity and famine a distinct possibility in 2020.

• ABP, ABP, is in deep trouble.

EDUCATION

“Numerous are the streams that lead to social prosperity; but, all spring from the same source; and that is public education.

Gaspar Jovellanos, 1744-1811, VBQ p 46.

Three unlikely elements have combined to further set back education in 2022: governments, security agents and bandits/kidnappers. These are the likely repercussions of the assaults on education from them.

• kidnapping school children, teachers, lecturers and even Vice Chancellors proved to be a lucrative business in 2021; Nigerians should expect more in 2022

• more children and their parents will turn their backs on schools

• school owners, including universities and polys will have to beef up campus security significantly; fees will go up everywhere

• ASUU may again go on another prolonged strike

• Every one will be hurt but the North will suffer most

PANDEMICS

The world is now in the grip of several variants of COVID-19 which was largely responsible for the recession in 2020. In 2022, Nigeria will still be battling COVID-19, the delta variant and OMICRON, but we are susceptible to another pandemic which will be domestic. Nigerian federal and state governments are broke and their financial plight is getting worse. It will be far worse in 2022 irrespective of the ultimate decision on fuel subsidy. So expect the following.

• Massive malnutrition

• Another pandemic just as virulent as COVID-19.

• Another lockdown cannot be ruled out. 

 CYBERCRIMES

Every piece of new technology …will eventually be used quite differently from the way in which its proponents first imagined.

Sir Michael Perry, Chairman Unilever, 1995, VBQ p 243.

On Thursday, December 16, 2021, five leading Chief Executive Officers, CEOs, of top American companies declared cyber technology as the most dangerous weapon in the world today. Cyber and internet technology is now like a loaded gun in the hands of criminals worldwide pointed at the heads of human society. Nigerian criminals are not far behind.That means the following in 2020.

• expect a major cyber attack against Nigeria’s financial institutions – CBN and one or two big banks

• MTN, Globacom and Airtel might also be targeted.

• Companies’ and private accounts will also be hacked and deposits cleared by internet fraudsters.

ILLICIT DRUGS

“11,340 drug traffickers arrested, 1,111 convicted, 3.3 million kg narcotics seized”. News Report, December 22, 2021

The laws of Economics override the wishes of governments at all times. One axiom of Economics holds that great demand will always compel supply. Governments, from time immemorial have attempted to prohibit the consumption of items considered harmful to consumers or which result in anti-social conduct.

People of my generation grew up with contempt for drinkers of pure alcohol (ogogoro, Sapele water, 404, burukutu etc) and Indian hemp smokers. Certainly, they were the Devil’s disciples. We kept our distance from them because bad habits are always as infectious as any pandemic. They were in the minority; or so we thought.

Today, we must confess that Satan is winning the battle for the souls of human beings worldwide. Anybody who only consumes beer, brandy, whisky or gin and who smokes cigarettes must be among the triumphant saints. Drugs, more devastating than those, have taken over the lives of young people. And only God can save them. When Babangida passed the NDLEA Decree 48 of 1989, Nigeria was only a major transit country for drugs – cocaine, heroin etc – bound for other countries. Now, our country is one of the largest producers and consumers of various drugs. And, they mutate like COVID-19. Before the NDLEA can come to grips with one, another is already in circulation. So, for 2022, we can expect the following:

• More drug seizures by NDLEA

• Pressure to legalise the “medical” use of marijuana and cannabis

• More youth addiction to latest drugs

• Over-stretched law enforcing agents

• Courts inundated with drug related cases

• Prisons over-crowded with drug offenders awaiting trial

Look at the News Report above again. It means that 10, 229 Nigerians are awaiting trial on account of drugs; and that figure represents 11 months activities. Over 80 per cent of those held are under 50 years old. The 2022 crowd of drug offenders can only swell the number to new records. In the barrios of Lagos State, newly-released drug offenders change addresses and names and quickly return to the only business they know – drug peddling. It is the survival of the un-fittest. 

In the days of our innocence, low income degenerates funded their habits – by begging, borrowing or stealing. The consumption of new designer drugs is now financed by the upper Middle, rich and wealthy classes. It is quite possible that

There is no Governor, Minister, MD of major corporation, with three kids, over twenty, who is not quietly battling with drug or social media addiction at home. The Devil has taken over; and parents are at his mercy.

Unfortunately, the political leaders, who should take the lead in finding solutions to these problems, will be totally selfish in 2022. While the problem of drug addiction accelerates; leadership will be absent when it is most needed.

ELECTION 2023

“Every politician only thinks of the next election; statesmen think of the future.”

If that observation is true, then, the number of statesmen in Nigeria can fit into a twelve sitter bus. Virtually everybody well-known in the country and who has operated in the public sector is a politician. He has an abiding interest to protect.

When Obasanjo, a sitting President announced in 2007 that “election is a do-or-die affair”, he effectively gave approval to the mayhem that followed. He is not alone. Few of our political leaders, still active, operate without “stalwarts”. 

READ ALSO: 2023: Ndigbo must connect to politics at centre to realize President of Igbo extraction — Fmr Ebonyi PDP Chair

Election 2023 is already promising to make 2022 the bloodiest year in our history. For the first time, the two leading political associations have warring, 

and irreconcilable, factions within the party nation wide. For every faction, election is still a do-or-die affair. 

There are twenty times as many illegal arms in the hands of assassins as in 2007.

So expect the following:

• more bloodshed

• possibly an inconclusive election – if it holds at all

• downfall of juggernauts

• what if there is no election in 2023? 2022 will decide

Baba Obasanjo established the mantra. Election matters in 2022 will be matters of do or die. The graveyards are waiting.

LEADERSHIP

“A man cannot gradually enlarge his mind as he does his house.”

Alexis de Tocquiville, 1805-1859.

Six and a half years and seven Christmases, under Buhari,  have rolled by like a parade of mourners – each more sombre than the last. Christmas, as we knew it, has been deleted until further notice. It was partly our fault.

For over half a century it has become clear to people in various nations seeking progress that they owe it a duty to themselves to elect or select leaders whose minds are already well developed to cope with the complexities of the day. Low educational achievement is almost always a deterrent to good leadership. Good leaders read a lot; and associate with the best thinkers in their societies. We were unfortunate in the alternative we had to Jonathan, who was a total let down, in 2015. If Jonathan had been just a little more presidential; we might have escaped our present and future travails. We elected a hermit; who occasionally came out to contest elections. He was totally oblivious to global developments; and is still not willing or able to learn. Our fate, as a nation, is sealed.

For 2022, we have a government full of people who cannot expand their minds. The next 365 days will only repeat what we have experienced in the last six and half years. Only the heckling will get louder; and the police, already over-stretched, will be kept extremely busy trying to stop fellow Nigerians from exercising their fundamental rights to protest against atrocious governance. I have bad news for them. There will be endless protests in 2022 – especially if fuel price goes up on account of subsidy removal. Then, the country might become totally ungovernable. Will there be election in 2023 when there is no adequate preparation for it in 2020? The odds are even on that.

CONCLUSION

In a clash between the immovable object and the irresistible force, something must give way. There might be a mass revolt in 2022 and the over-stretched military and police might become overwhelmed.

Have a happy 2022 – if you can.

VANGUARD NEWS NIGERIA