Ali Djawad

 We talked to Grégoire Cyrille Dongobada, a military observer and political studies researcher, based in Central Africa, about the current situation in Mali in wake of constantly declining security situation in the region.

The greatest concern with no doubt is the fact that the pace of deterioration of the security situation in Mali, and in the Sahel region as a whole, is increasing: according to a report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2020 was the deadliest year due to Islamist violence in the Sahel, where an estimated 4,250 people were killed, which is 60% more than in 2019.

More than half of these deaths are linked to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS).

As of now, the situation in Mali remains unstable, as the fragile political transition in the country, which began after the coup in August 2020, was interrupted by the second coup on May 24.

The vice-president of the transitional period, Colonel Assimi Goïta, the leader of the coup in August 2020, announced that he had come to power. In a statement, Goïta accused the previous government that their actions led to nationwide strikes and protests.

Nevertheless, Colonel Goïta confirmed that he intends to hold the elections in accordance with the schedule.

The military’s rise to power aroused great enthusiasm among the population, who saw Goïta and his people as a force capable of putting an end to the intensification of the armed groups activities in certain parts of the country, as well as repeated mass killings in other areas.

However, the security situation continues to deteriorate: it has become obvious that the government of Mali is not able to cope with it without outside support.

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Experts in the field of peace and security in West Africa note that the Western approach to anti-terrorist operations is not very effective. The most striking example of recent times, of course, is the arrival of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of the American contingent from the country where they have been deployed for 20 years.

Many researchers point to the similarity of this situation with the situation in Mali: in the spring of 2021, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the completion of the Barkhan mission.

The French military initially intervened in Mali in early 2013 as part of Operation Serval, which successfully liberated the northern half of the country from Islamist groups.

Operation Barkhane was designed to build on this success and expand the operations of the French military in the vast territory of the Sahel region. In April 2013, the UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, joined the fight in Mali. The mandate of MINUSMA was extended in June 2021 and currently there are more than 18,000 UN peacekeepers in Mali.

These forces are not enough to ensure the safety of the civilian population, which is constantly attacked by terrorists. That is why the Goïta government, in search of new partners who have successful experience in anti-terrorist activities, turned to the Russian Federation for help.

His decision was inspired and supported by the population of Mali, who during spontaneous rallies repeatedly called on Russia to help them in the fight against terrorists. After long and difficult negotiations, the countries have come to an agreement and Mali is already waiting for the arrival of Russian specialists.

According to yet unverified sources, some Russian specialists have arrived in Mali, and have already suffered losses.

This move, in addition to the potential solution to the security issue, also reflected well on Colonel Goïta ‘s rating, since there is an opinion among Malians that the Russians do not leave innocent suffering people in trouble and always put the effectiveness of the task in the first place.

The Russian presence in Mali will become a serious stabilizing factor: we have already seen this scenario in the Central African Republic, where the government forces supported by the Russians managed to avoid a full-scale humanitarian crisis and successfully broke the long-term vicious circle of violence. It is important to note that the Russian presence in no way enters into a confrontation with Western forces – primarily UN forces, – in the region, because the prime task of all these contingents is stabilizing the security situation and maintaining sustainable peace in the country.

In light of the success of Islamic radicals in Afghanistan, there is an increase in terrorist activity around the world. The end of the Barkhan operation is also a significant factor in the destabilization of the region. According to one of the leaders of the jihadists in Mali, “the termination of Operation Barkhane was a great hope for the continuation of the struggle.”

The only right decision for Malian authorities would be to tackle the situation as soon as possible, as it is already spilling over the borders, threatening the stability of the whole continent.

Vanguard News Nigeria