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Energy demand to rise by 33%, requires $11trn investment — Barkindo

By Udeme Akpan

THE Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has predicted that energy demand would rise by 33 per cent from 2015 to 2040.

According to OPEC, the rise in demand would require almost $11 trillion in oil and exploration and production during the period.

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OPEC Secretary General, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, who made the disclosure at the SPE Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, October 13, 2019 in Kuwait City, said: “Overall energy demand will increase 33per cent from 2015 to 2040, with almost 95per cent of that demand coming from developing countries, led by India and China. Crude oil will continue to account for the largest share of the energy mix by 2040 – around 28per cent – and oil and gas together are projected to make up more than 50per cent of the global energy needs.

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“Worldwide oil demand is forecast to grow by around 14.5 million barrels per day, rising to nearly 112 million barrels per day by 2040. Road transportation will remain one of the main drivers of oil demand – even taking into account advances in efficiency, tightening emissions policies and the growth of electric vehicle use. Our projections show that the total vehicle stock is estimated to grow by around 1.1 billion between 2017 and 2040, to 2.4 billion vehicles, with electric vehicles accounting for just 13per cent of the overall fleet by 2040.”

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He stated: “The largest incremental demand growth for crude oil is projected to come from the petrochemicals sector, according to the Outlook. While the outlook for the petroleum sector is bright, the industry also has a responsibility to be part of the solution to the challenge of climate change. We must be more than a stable energy supplier.

“Let me identify three important and interconnected points on how we can retain a competitive position while addressing the climate issue. First, the oil industry needs both a seat at the table in the discussions on the energy future – and a level playing field when it comes to energy policy making. This is why OPEC has supported the Paris Agreement and is fully engaged at the multilateral level in discussions on climate policy.”

He said: “The ‘Declaration’ has been a game-changer for the industry. The production adjustments undertaken by the participating countries over the past three years have reversed the severe oil market crisis of 2014-2016 and restored durable stability to the global oil market.

“The success of the partnership and the market-balancing measures it has undertaken owe much to the unwavering support of Kuwait that continues to serve on our JMMC and the steadfast leadership now being set forth by Khaled Al-Fadhel. In July this year, the 24 participating countries in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ unanimously endorsed a ‘Charter of Cooperation’. This voluntary initiative puts us in a stronger position over the longer term to address areas of common interest, including energy security, the energy transition and the challenge of climate change.”

“Since dialogue, transparency and cooperation have been so successful in rescuing the oil industry from the most severe cycle; why not apply the same values to addressing other challenges? That is, to turn challenges into opportunities? A second important point about the energy future is the need for sustained leadership in the development and deployment of technologies that have – throughout the history of the oil industry – fostered progressive improvements in efficiency, exploration and delivery.”

He added: “Looking ahead, the successful deployment of carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) and other emissions-reducing innovations could strengthen the industry’s competitiveness and affirm its commitment to tackle climate issues. Many OPEC Member Countries are fortunate to have abundant renewable energy potential and are working to exploit these resources for industrial and domestic use, while also harnessing advanced technologies to improve efficiency along the entire petroleum production chain.”

“Finally, the oil industry needs a supportive investment climate if we are to meet the world’s energy needs and deliver solutions to climate challenges. OPEC estimates that investments of almost $11 trillion in the industry will be needed to address the demand and supply outlook I mentioned earlier.”

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