*The ethnic dimensions

By HUGO ODIOGOR

The NATO backed revolutionary fighters on Friday began their advancement into Bani Walid, Sirte  and Sabha to liberate the tribal enclaves from forces loyal to deposed Col. Muammar Gaddafi. The definitive phase of the battle began with Gaddafi’s loyalists launching attacks on the revolutionary forces who were waiting for the expiration of the extended deadline yesterday.

The build-up to the second phase of the battle to rid Libya of Gaddafism had been characterised by intrigues from Gaddafi, his family and officials of his government.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) on Thursday issued a warrant of arrest for Gaddafi to answer charges for crimes against humanity. His belligerent second son Saif Al-Islam has a similar charge hanging on his neck, while the first son Saadi tried to confuse the situation by offering to negotiate with the rebels and surrender himself to the National Transitional Council, NTC, and get clemency.

During the lull in fighting that followed the fall of Tripoli, the capital, some members of Gaddafi family, notably, his second wife, Saifa; daughter, Aisha; and sons, Mohammed and Hannibal, were granted asylum by the Algerian government.

The Algerian government which has indicated its readiness to recognise the new authorities in Tripoli said it accepted the family of Gaddafi on humanitarian grounds. The Algerian authorities claimed that the decision to shelter Gaddafi’s family had been taken in consultation with Libya’s new authorities. But members of the NTC said it would consider granting asylum to the Gaddafi’s family  members as “an act of aggression on Libyan people”.

Gaddafi was reported to be in Ghadamis, an oasis town close to the border with Algeria and Tunisia, from where he has been making contacts with the Algerian dictator, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, to negotiate a safe exile for himself and the rest of his family. Algeria which has been a close ally of Gaddafi has moved at the weekend to recognise an interim Libyan government after being previously wary of recognising the rebels for fear of stoking a long standing Algerian Islamic insurgency.

It is important to examine the influence of the tribes in the ensuing power game in Libya, while Gaddafi continues to boast and incite Libyans against the NTC. While the reality is that the NTC has tightened the noose on Gaddafi, Bani Walid’s split between Warfalla rebels and Warfalla loyalists reveals the complexities of a war that the Gaddafi family has long tried to cast as tribal. But the fact that negotiations are necessary also suggests that certain tribes, like the Warfalla (Libya’s largest), may remain predominantly in the Gaddafi regime’s camp.

“Now they will go to Bani Walid and sit together,” said Muftah Salem, a rebel fighter from Tarhouna, as the group of sheiks from Bani Walid headed home. “They are afraid of a reaction from inside Bani Walid. They need time.”

Last week, there were reports that Gaddafi’s government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim and possibly two of Gaddafi’s sons were holed up in Bani Walid.

Yet there were other accounts important regime figures had fled to the Nigerien town of Agadez  in the direction of Niger’s capital, Niamey, near the country’s southern border with Burkina Faso, where Gaddafi has reportedly been promised a safe haven. Watchers of Libya’s political history said the negotiations have also become necessary to stop the opening up of old wounds which Gaddafi may capitalise on to divide the people along tribal lines.

For instance, after a grueling four-month siege by government forces, Misrata’s rebels have a score to settle with Gaddafi’s loyalists but, more importantly, they may also have a nearly century-old score to settle with the town of Bani Walid. During the 1915 war against the Italian colonial rulers, a Misratan rebel commander, Ramadan al-Sweihy, was betrayed and then killed by the tribesmen of Bani Walid, who were taking money from the Italians. Misratans have never forgotten this betrayal.

In his desperate  effort to incite guerrilla war fare, Gaddafi has said “a war of bees that sting and run away” was afoot, calling on his supporters to prepare for an insurgency against western powers whom he accused of trying to occupy Libya and steal its oil. He had earlier promised “a long battle” against the forces opposing him.

He continued: “Get ready for a gang war, a war of gangs and urban warfare, guerrilla warfare and a war of bees that sting and run away and return to sting once more. Let it be a long battle so that we can show to them that they cannot rule the Libyan people, they cannot subjugate our tribes.”

When Gaddafi seized power 42 years ago, he espoused a progressive brand of Arab nationalism, but he soon had to fall back on the country’s tribal network to support his regime, lavishing money and perks on their leaders.