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Rational Perspectives

President’s trade mission to China

President Buhari receiving a presentation from Mr Jin Zhuanglong Board Chairman, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China shortly after his visit to Commercial Aircraft Cooperation of China Ltd in Shanghai China.

The template for public expectation from President Muhammed Buhari’s recent visit to China was formally defined by Femi Adesina, in the President’s Media Adviser’s press release, which was published a day before Nigeria’s star-studded delegation departed Abuja in April. However, the Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun had told Reuters and London’s Financial Times, just before the China trip that Nigeria was actually in negotiation for a $2.5bn World Bank loan to partly fund the 2016 budget, because of the more favourable terms.

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fuel-pump

ECONOMY: Why increasing crude prices will cause more problems

Crude oil prices wobbled alarmingly, well below Nigeria’s modest budget benchmark of $38/barrel, for several weeks, but, unexpectedly flexed above $40 in early April to rekindle hopes that the fortuitous price spiral will be sustained to partly fund the 2016 projected deficit and partially also satisfy the clearly bloated excess market demand for foreign exchange.

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FILE: FROM LEFT: PERMANENT SECRETARY, STATE HOUSE, MR NEBOLISA EMORDI; 
CBN GOVERNOR, MR GODWIN EMEFIELE; VICE-PRESIDENT YEMI OSINBAJO AND  PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI, DURING THE INAUGURATION OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC  COUNCIL AT THE PRESIDENTIAL VILLA IN ABUJA ON MONDAY (29/6/15).

Economy: Buhari and CBN pulling apart

The National Assembly approved the 2016 Appropriation Bill, just a day before recess, on the Wednesday 23rd of March; the approval was a fulfillment of the Appropriation Committees’ promise to do the needful before the Easter break. However, the Senate Appropriation Committee’s Chairman, Danjuma Goje, acknowledged that the three months delay before implementation could have been avoided if the Budget was presented to the Legislature in good time.

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File: Buhari during the 2016 budget presentation to the National Assembly.

Is N6trn “ghost budget” still defensible?

It is regrettable, that the absence of a more salutary impact from partial implementation of earlier budgets, has seriously eroded public expectation to make Nigerians, nonchalant about this annual constitutional requirement. Unfortunately, the unfolding drama surrounding the 2016 version of this critical annual event, may not also inspire public confidence that this year’s plan will positively touch our lives.

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Indeed, Naira devaluation is probably the most potent weapon against the prosperity of Nigerians. Nigeria’s migration from a potential industrial power house with bustling social affluence, to a subdued and stumbling economy clearly began with the adoption of IMF’s Structural Adjustment Programme during Babangida’s regime: the chorus from International Agencies, at that time, was also that falling oil prices with an unserviced debt burden and the consequent restriction of trade credit to Nigeria, were the products of an allegedly overvalued Naira exchange rate.

$20bn idle deposits: Burden or opportunity?

As I’m talking to you, $20bn is in various domiciliary accounts of individuals. Naira is our currency, why are they keeping the foreign currency? From my experience in international finance, I have never seen a country where its nationals speculate on its currency”. The preceeding is an excerpt from the presentation of Dr. Joseph Nnana, CBN Deputy Governor (Financial Systems Surveillance) at a recent meeting with the Joint Appropriation Committee of the National Assembly.

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Long queue of jerry cans at a petrol station as fuel scarcity bites harder, yesterday.

Will agonising fuel queues ever end?

It is, inexplicable, that despite Nigeria’s ranking as a major oil producer, our economy is still literally in shambles with a tattered currency and a crushing unemployment rate above 25%; we still unfortunately presently expend almost 50% of our total export revenue on fuel imported from some of those refineries which buy our crude oil. Regrettably, despite the regular recurrence of fuel scarcity, with its severe public discomfort, and ravaging economic dislocation, there is still no assurance that this tortuous cycle will ever end. However, if the inefficient, and wasteful sporadic operation of existing government refineries is anything to go by, any serious proposal for government to build and operate more refineries may just be a death wish.

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Counterfeit naira

Latent wealth with debt seeking mindset

The 2016 Appropriation Bill, has probably generated wider public interest and debate than any other annual budget in recent memory. The projected spending of over N6Tn is by far the highest ever, but will also require an exceptionally heavy loan of almost N2Tn to fund this budget, in which capital expenditure is allocated an unusually high, though still modest provision, of 30% of government’s total spending this year.

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Naira-Dollar

Dollar racketeering and enemies from within

‘’There is nowhere in the world where Monetary Authorities fund Bureaus De Change (BDCs) directly with foreign exchange. The predominant patrons of Nigeria’s BDCs are predominantly, smugglers of unauthorised items, treasury looters, and others who cannot process formal documentation to access official foreign exchange. Curiously, the CBN’s formal policy to sell $400,000 weekly to each BDC translates to $1.6bn, for 1000 BDCs monthly.

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President Muhammadu Buhari

To borrow or not to borrow

President Muhammed Buhari’s is proposing to spend over N6trillion in the 2016 Appropriation bill, even though government ‘reasonably’ expects to earn about N3.8trillion as revenue. Indeed, according to the budget proposals, N984bn will be borrowed in Naira from personal and corporate holders of surplus cash to fund the shortfall, while $4.5b (N900bn) will also be borrowed from the international market at the current exchange rate of about N200= $1 and prevailing commercial interest rates will apply.

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naira sign

Sensible path to stronger Naira, economic prosperity

Hereafter, we will discuss the related ADVERSE consequences of the Current Payments Model (CPM) against the positive attributes of the Advocated Payments Model (APM) for the allocation, for example, of $1bn export revenue in the following explanatory steps. Thus, in CPM: -1 The CBN unilaterally determines the naira exchange rate and thereafter unconstitutionally captures the distributable $1bn revenue and prints/creates in replacement (read as monetizes) N200bn as statutory allocations, which are then domiciled in the bank accounts of beneficiaries.

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CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele

Can CBN save the Naira and Nigerians?

Historically, the CBN has compulsively devalued the Naira to bridge increasingly widening gaps between official and parallel exchange rates, even when these gaps were caused by the obtusely contrived monopolistic market dynamics of demand and supply. It would undoubtedly create much discomfort for CBN Management if unrestrained dollar demand further pushes parallel market rates well above N300=$1; in such event, CBN may again unwittingly, jerk up the official rate above N300 and remove the embedded ‘subsidy’ from the official Naira exchange rate so as to raise the dollar price and discourage demand and hopefully also minimise the inherent rent seeking market opportunities.

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