This report  explores why South-West geo-political zone may not feature prominently in the emerging zoning arrangement of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.  With the least number of legislators at the National Assembly, the zone is not solidly positioned to pitch for either the Speaker’s position or those of either the Senate President or Deputy Senate President.  This is the emerging reality that leaders of the party in the South-West have to contend with.  On a bigger scale, how would the PDP re-arrange its zoning formula to contain the plethora of disparate interests, while not hurting sensibilities in the run up to the 2015 elections.

By Jide Ajani, Editor,
Northern Operations

It hit Chief Olabode George like a thunderbolt; and he never forgave Olusegun Obasanjo, then President and Commander-in-Chief.

It was in the build up to the handover ceremony of May 29, 2007.  George, Obasanjo’s Man Friday, who had played a significant role in the presidential campaign of late Umaru Musa YarÁdua, was cruising home to becoming the national chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.  It was an internal arrangement which, though unwritten, was obvious to all.  George was also banking on the relationship which had existed between him and the senior General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, with whom George had worked during the preparations for the 1977 Festival of Black Arts and Culture, FESTAC – George had worked on a sub-committee with the senior Yar’Adua in charge and a relationship was struck.  With that relationship, George, sensing that an Umaru as President and leader of the PDP would not be averse to his becoming  the national chairman of the PDP, felt comfortable and saw no need to fret.
Alas, Obasanjo had another agenda.

As the supreme leader of the PDP, he whimsically re-ordered the emerging zoning arrangement in the party.  He swung the Speaker’s seat to the South West and gave the party chairmanship to the South East.  It was his own way of re-paying a loyal member of the House of Representatives, not even  from his own Ogun State.  Patricia Etteh, from Osun State, was primed for the Speaker’s seat and Obasanjo, even after he had left office, pulled all the stops to hand her the seat.  That was how the South-West zone ended up with the number four position after Obasanjo from the same zone had used up the presidential slot for eight years.

Today, the people from the South-West are in for a rough time.
Reason: The last elections, specifically the national legislative elections, saw the zone performing woefully when compared with other zones.

For that reason, any meaningful zoning arrangement within the PDP, according to party insiders, consigns the zone to the position of either chairmanship of the party or Secretary to the Government of the Federation.

The six slots open for grabs are:

President and Commander-in-Chief – South-South

Vice President – North-West

Senate President – North-Central

Speaker, House of Representatives – South-West

Chairman of PDP – South-East

Secretary to the Government of the Federation – North-East

The present arrangement would have to be tinkered with.

In the case of the South-West and its previous hold on the speakership, that would change.
The National Assembly elections have demystified the claim of the PDP as having a strong footing in the South- West and, by extension, any form of relevance in the PDP.

The offices of president and vice president remain where they are.
But the Senate President’s position, which presently is in the North-Central, may remain there for the purpose of continuity.

And whereas the South-East held the office of the Senate President while another southerner, Obasanjo, was President and Commander-in-Chief, the experience of Nigerians in the hands of South Easterners remain fresh – every state in the zone produced a Senate  President in eight years because of the crises of attrition that ensued.  Evan(s) Enwerem, Chuba Okadigbo, Anyim Pius Anyim, Adolphus Wabara and Ken Nnamani from Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi, Abia and Enugu States, respectively all served the slot of the zone within eight years.  This creates a possible knock off effect for a possible return of the seat to the South-East particularly, not because of the attrition but, because the incumbent, David Mark, enjoys the confidence of President Jonathan.  The North-Central zone also stood behind
Jonathan but for Nasarawa State which was lost to the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC.  The South-West PDP has only a Senate seat and it is not ranking.

For now, the chairmanship of the PDP resides in the South East.

Even at that, Abia State, from whence Chief Vincent Ogbulafor hails, has served its turn while Enugu State, with Dr.
Okwesilieze Nwodo, has also served its turn.

It may be left in the hands of the leaders of the zone to demand a return of the slot to the zone or opt for the number four position of Speaker of the House of Representatives.

In terms of the slot for the position of Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the North-East, with Alhaji Yayale Ahmed, holds sway.  With his commitment and his decision to stay course and lean towards  Jonathan in the heady days of late President Yar’Adua’s health crisis, the North-East  may have to contend with Ahmed’s pre-eminence as a solo occupier.

This is because his firm grip on the office and manifest commitment to Jonathan may cause the slot to be retained in the zone because of his person.

If that happens, the South-West would be at the mercy of whatever the South-East leaders want between the offices of the national chairman and that of the Speaker, House of Representatives.
Interestingly, between the speakership and the chairmanship positions, the South-West zone can not lay serious claim.

The reason is because in the House of Representatives, the zone would have the least number of members and, therefore, would lack the moral turpitude to stand on firm ground.

If the zone is offered the national chairmanship, the same scenario plays out – a national chairman whose zone produced the least membership support for the party.

Just as it was during the Second Republic when the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, held sway at the centre, its national chairman, Chief Augustus Meredith Adisa Akinloye, did not enjoy the popular mandate from the Yoruba-speaking western part of Nigeria where the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, was in charge.  But Adisa, being a tactful politician, held his own in national politics.

Today, who in the South West Zone, has such demonstrable political sagacity to occupy the position of national chairman?

Well, there are two former state governors who fit the bill: Otunba Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State, Chief Olagunsoye Oyinlola, formerly of Osun State and Governor Alao Akala of Oyo State.  And whereas there is Segun Oni, formerly of Ekit State, the chairmanship position may console the South-West.

But all these would require serious horse-trading as the permutations would have to be considered with or without prejudiced to the 2015 general elections.  That year, especially within the context of President Jonathan’s promise not to seek re-election, the South-East zone would have to be very tactical in its approach, just as the North-Central and North-East zones would have to weigh the options open to them – the North-West produced the late Yar’Adua, albeit, short lived.