THOUGH the outcome and impact of production freeze talks by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are yet to resonate fully we are already seeing positive signs indicating that, probably, the worst days of oil price-related economic crises are ending.

However, we need to apply caution, and the country’s economic and fiscal policy executives need to demonstrate better strategy and diligence that are effective enough to arrest and reverse the slides recorded across all indices of economic performance in the last 20 months.

For three weeks now oil prices have been trending above USD50 per barrel against the backdrop of Nigeria’s 2017 budget benchmark price of USD42 per barrel.

This USD50 price range has been the longest running at that range in the past 20 months. Significantly, it was buoyed by two key developments in the international market which may, at least, sustain it at that level if not push it close to USD60 in the short to medium term.

First was the OPEC tentative agreement to cooperate with output freeze, and second is the prospect of improving demand as forecast last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the USA-based number one energy research body.

Perhaps these will bode well with the exemption of Nigeria and two other countries from the freeze, meaning Nigeria could still increase output to make up for losses to militancy.

With the significant rise in oil price the federal government and political leaders may soon be faced with the choice of deciding to save the excess revenue against budgeted benchmarks or apply same to the starved economy.

The implication of this is not lost on the followers of recent economic arguments and the political brickbats to the point of blaming the present economic crises on the inability of former governments to save. Before Nigerians begin to sing uhuru, we note that the rise in the oil prices in the short-term may not be enough to turn around the fortunes of the economy.

We should not see any improvement in the prices of oil as a pretext to go back to our old, profligate ways. Rather, it is an opportunity to show we have learned our lesson and can demonstrate a new-found capacity for transparency and accountability.

We must fashion out a fiscal policy measure that not only creates opportunities for an increase in revenue from sources other than oil but also maximises same in preventing a downturn of the current magnitude.

We must work harder to exit oil-dependency through comprehensive diversification while leveraging on the impetus of favourable oil price, when it comes.

That is the only way the Buhari administration can show it is serious about change.