HISTORY has a strange way of repeating  itself.  Especially when actors refuse to learn from their predecessor’s missteps.  This is particularly so in world history and indeed in recent Nigerian history.  As recent as 2013 when the then Governors of Niger, Jigawa, Rivers, Kwara, Sokoto, Kano and Adamawa stormed out of a People’s Democratic Party (PDP) convention in Abuja over dispute between the Governors’ preference for top party positions and the party hierarchy’s insistence on having its way.

Ominously, the then Chairman of the party, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur reportedly dismissed the seven governors, saying that the party can do without them. As it turned out, that event sounded the death knell for the PDP and laid the foundation for its loss to the rival APC in the last general elections. And by the look of things, the APC is toeing the same line.

Fast forward to December 2014 in Lagos. The APC was holding its presidential primaries.  In the battle for the party’s ticket were former Kano State Governor, Sen. Rabiu Kwakwanso, Imo State Governor, Rochas Okworocha, former Head of State, General Mohammed Buhari, ex-vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Sam Nda-Isiah.

Against all expectations, the primaries were transparent, rancor-free and credible, leading to Buhari’s emergence as the then opposition party’s flag bearer and eventual victory as the country’s new president.

In the process, the APC not only proved skeptics wrong by holding credible and generally accepted primaries, it positioned itself as a champion of transparency and inclusiveness. It seemed the party had booked a place for itself in history as one-created, built and run on transparency.  Alas, the party seems to have forgotten so soon, that a house-divided against itself cannot stand. Certainly, not when its foundation pillars are wobbly or are being undermined.

Events since that December 2014 morning, have proved that APC’s attempt at transparency was either an exception or has been jettisoned by the its leaders.  Indeed, the APC’s first attempt at choosing its leadership, this time at the National Assembly reflected anything but transparency. Instead of the vaunted equity and transparency on which the APC rode to power what we saw was a few leaders manipulating the selection of principal officers of the Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives through a dubious mock-election.

It was unbelievable that a party that had built a reputation on respect for procedure and positioned itself as anti-impunity will organise  a shadowy straw poll and not inform its members as to the agenda before hand.

Even more curious was the APC leadership’s refusal to learn from the interference that led to the PDP failing to secure the Speakership of the House of Representatives for its preferred candidate in 2011 and the role played by impunity in the party’s electoral woes four years later.

To put it bluntly, therefore, impunity and lack of transparency lie at the heart of the crises in the party and the muddle in the National Assembly over the emergence of Yakubu Dogara and Bukola Saraki, as Speaker House of Representatives and Senate President, respectively.

Clearly, what happened was an attempt by certain party leaders to present their agenda as that of the APC as a whole.  Without equivocation, it is clear that these leaders, rather than Saraki and Dogara, are the ones acting contrary to overall wish of party, which, I deduce, is predicated on adherence to equity, and transparency. The crises in the party is therefore directly traceable to this and should be resolved if APC is to survive.

And from President Muhammadu Buhari’s body language, he seems to be toeing the party line of blackmailing Dogara and Saraki as anti-people. Under the guise of respecting party supremacy, Buhari appears to have bowed to the desire of certain elements in APC to isolate the leadership of the National Assembly forgetting that the Presidency can ill afford a frosty relationship with that arm of government. Or how do you explain that fact that Buhari has only met Hon. Femi Gbajabiala and Senator Lawan groups and continues to give a cold shoulder to Saraki and Dogara? The signs are ominous.

There is another reason why the APC needs to look beyond the desires of a few leaders, practice inclusiveness and give all stakeholders a sense of belonging. If it continues to hunt Saraki, Dogara and sideline other nPDP elements, the party could be setting the foundation for its own failure. In case the APC leadership has forgotten, it took Saraki, ex-Governor Rotimi Amaechi, and the other four governors’ movement to APC from PDP to give the ruling party national status.

Prior to that, the APC was perceived as a regional party that could not have mustered the numbers to win a national mandate that the APC got in the last elections. To sideline or antagonise this group is dangerous and does not portend well for the APC’s future. APC must invoke the equity, transparency and inclusiveness with which it won the hearts of Nigerians, allow equity to trump the agenda of its leaders and forge ahead. The task ahead is enormous.

As the PDP’s demise has shown, you cannot run a party based on impunity and exclusiveness and hope to survive.

To put it bluntly, APC won the general elections because the PDP failed. If the APC toes the same line, another party, however ill-prepared for leadership, will swoop in and take over. History is sounding a loud warning. I hope the APC is listening.

Mr. Gbenga Dada, a political analyst, wrote from Abuja.