By Suzan Edeh
Following the just concluded party primaries in the state, the question in the lips of many residents of Bauchi State is who will emerge as the governor of state at the f April polls.

Political pundits have opined that the People Democratic Party, PDP governorship candidate stands a better chance, given the fact that the PDP has penetrated the political cloud of the state, in addition to the incumbency factor.  It could be recalled that enroute  the PDP governorship primaries, the state governor, Mallam Isa Yuguda, ran with two other aspirants: Senator Baba Tella and Ahmed Iyiasu.

However, Tella withdrew a few days to the primaries, based on what he described as, “lack of internal democracy and justice in the PDP”. On the other hand, Ahmed Iyiasu, later stepped down for Yuguda, a development that was alleged by some politicians to be a calculated arrangement by Yuguda.

With the PDP ticket in his kitty,  the next question is, what chances do Mallam have at the polls against  major contenders in the other political parties? Lastly, will the  incumbency factor work in his favour giving the present leadership fracas in the state House of Assembly?

Aside the PDP, other major contending parties are the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigerian Peoples Party, (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Others and their candidates are KOWA -Haliru Abdullahi, Alliance for Democracy AD – Musa Umar Gwasskwaram, African Liberation Party (ALP) – Danladi Musa  NPPP and the APGA – Kawuwa Umar Abdullahi.  One unique thing with some of the gubernatorial candidates in these parties is the fact that most of them are decampees from the PDP.

Senator Baba Tella who is currently the ACN gubernatorial flag bearer was previously in the PDP. Sentor Nazif Gamawa was previously in the PDP too. But when he decided to run for the position of the governor in the state, things began to fall apart between him and Mallam. This was one of the reasons that made him leave the ruling party.

In the senatorial category, the present Deputy Governor of the State, Babayo Garba Gamawa is the PDP senatorial candidate  for Bauchi North while the former Deputy Governor during the Ahmadu Mu’azu-led administration, Abdulmalik Mahmud is contesting  under ACN for Bauchi North just as the former Minster for Police Affairs, Ibrahim Yakubu Lame, made it for Bauchi South under the same party.

Other  senatorial candidates  are, Adamu Ibrahim Gumba, PDP Bauchi South, Bappa Aliyu Misau, CPC, Bauchi Central, Abdullahi Ahmed Ningi, PDP Bauchi Central, Ibo Jibrin Ibrahim, CPC Bauchi South, Shehu Mahdi, Bauchi North, Usman Yakubu, Labour party,  Bauchi south.

Others include, Isa Hamma Misau, Bauchi Central ACN, Abdurazak Gambo, Bauchi South APGA, Manu Ghadi, Bauchi North APGA,   Abdullahi Mohammed Mukhtar, ANPP Bauchi North, Mohammed Alhaji Mohammed, ANPP Bauchi Central and Haruna Ibrahim, ANPP Bauchi south.

A critical analysis of these governorship candidates, will give one an insight into what may transpire during and after the elections in the state

Mallam Isa Yuguda

Having polled 754 votes during the primaries from the 20  local government areas of the state and the incumbency factor to his advantage, it is going to be tough for other governorship candidates  to contend with him. Although, most of the governorship aspirants have said that incumbency factor was not a threat in realizing their mandate because the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured that the 2011 general elections would be credible, free and fair. In addition, Yuguda being the campaign coordinator of the North-East zone for the Goodluck/ Sambo organization definitely  has the support of the presidency in realizing his second term bid.

But one major factor Yuguda has to contend with is the present leadership fracas in the state House of Assembly. With the impeachment of Alh. Ahmed Faggo, the former Speaker of the House, activities in the legislative arm of the government is not normal again. Ahmed Faggo, is alleged to be a loyalist of MallamYuguda. The impeachment notice, which was signed by 21 members, has caused a breakdown of law and order in the House.

This also means that, whatever transpires in the House, directly affects the government. The current Speaker of the House, Hon. Jikka, lost out when he contested the PDP Bauchi North Senatorial primary election. Himself and some members of the House, who were defeated during the primaries, decamped to other political parties, a move that is alleged to be preparatory for them to impeach the Speaker in the House.

They faulted the former Speaker on what they termed, “lack of quality and purposeful leadership in the house”. Now the House has two factions. One is the Faggo faction, while the other is the Jikka faction and they all hold sittings in the House at different times. To worsen the situation, each of the factions have filed court orders against one another.

Another contending issue is that, some aggrieved politicians, who failed to clinched their tickets during the primaries, are faulting the state governor for not redeeming them during the elections. They claimed that if only Mallam had stood by them, they would have emerged victorious and retained their seats. Mallam would have to mend these fences  before the April elections.

Senator Nazif Gamawa

The ANPP guber candidate hails from Gamawa local government in the state. He was elected as a senator on the platform of the  ACN and later decamped to the PDP to retain his seat in the senate and foster friendship with the state governor. Another reason, was because his boss, former presidential candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar decamped to the PDP,. No sooner had Senator Gamawa declared his intention to run for the position of governor than things began to fall apart between himand the governor.

This even led to the state leadership of the PDP refusing to screen him as a governorship aspirant in the party. So, he defected again to the ANPP where he emerged as governorship candidate. His minus is that frequent defection from one party to the other has wounded the confidence and the trust the people of the state have in him. In addition to this, his youthful exuberance has been perceived by elder statesmen as a sign of arrogance.

Senator Baba Tella

Senator Baba Tella is the governorship candidate for the ACN. Tella also hails from Bauchi North in Gamawa local government area. His major minus is that he has never contested for a position as high as the governor.

Second, his platform, ACN, in the state, has grown weak, hence it does not have the support of the electorate. Lastly, some residents in the state have faulted him for not being rich in philantropic works .

In the Congress for Democratic Change (CPC), there was no definite governorship candidate initially because all the three governorship aspirants that contested during the party primaries claimed that they were the governorship candidate of the party.

The three governorship aspirants that contested during the primaries are, Abullahi Dan China, Alh. Nuhu Gidado and Aminu Turka This was as result of the on-going leadership fracas in the party, but with the release of the INEC list for gubernatorial candidate, Aminu Turkur has been officially approved by INEC as the gubernatorial flag bearer of the party, CPC.

One major plus for this gubernatorial candidate is that the platform of the party he is contesting on has gained some level of acceptance in the country especially with the person of  Rtd. Major General Buhari as its presidential candidate.