By Bayo Wahab

Amid persistent fluctuations in global commodity markets and shifting trade dynamics, Dr. Yemi Kale, former Statistician-General of Nigeria and Group Chief Economist and Managing Director at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has said that Nigeria must urgently reposition its economy to transform external shocks into opportunities for growth.

Speaking at the Vanguard Economic Discourse on Thursday, April 9,2025, Kale emphasised that Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil exports leaves it vulnerable to price swings, fiscal instability, and inflationary pressures.

However, he argued that strategic reforms in domestic production, mining, and industrial policy could turn volatility into a competitive edge.

In his speech, Kale said the lobal markets in 2024 were marked by turbulence, with oil — Nigeria’s primary export — experiencing sharp price swings, including a 5.6% decline in February 2025. Meanwhile, gold surged past $3,000 per ounce as investors sought safer assets amid geopolitical tensions.

“Oil price instability continues to complicate fiscal planning and foreign exchange management,” Kale noted. “Budget benchmarks become unreliable, revenue projections are routinely missed, and the naira remains vulnerable to external shocks.”

The ripple effects extend beyond government finances. “Volatility in global food and fuel markets directly affects domestic inflation, erodes household purchasing power, and exacerbates socio-economic stress, particularly among vulnerable populations,” he added.

According to him, key opportunity for Nigeria lies in the global energy transition, which is driving demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements — many of which Nigeria holds in viable quantities.

“The global pivot to green energy is not just a technological shift but a geopolitical and economic realignment,” Kale said. “Nigeria is endowed with these resources, but our current regulatory framework, infrastructure deficits, and weak value-chain integration prevent us from capitalizing on this opportunity,” he said.

To harness this potential, he called for targeted investments in mining infrastructure, transparent regulations, and local processing to move beyond raw mineral exports. “We must develop integrated value chains — from exploration to processing and export — to diversify forex earnings and build industrial clusters,” he stressed.

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