By Sola Ogundipe

Players in FIFA World Cup soccer finals are competing at an ever-increasing intensity, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.

The study shows that the distance the football travels during men’s games has stayed mostly the same, but in women’s matches, it has increased significantly.

The most noticeable shift is in the speed of the ball. Both men’s and women’s football have seen a big rise in ball speed. Women’s football, in particular, has seen a quicker increase in speed, narrowing the gap with men’s football. The study also found that the ball speed in women’s games increased at a greater rate than in men’s games.

Professor Kevin Norton from the School of Health Sciences at UNSW Sydney, an expert in the evolution of elite sports performance, analysed broadcast footage of 12 FIFA World Cup finals — 2014-2022 for men and 1991-2023 for women — to assess trends in the game.

Norton reviewed historical video footage with the support of computer-based tracking technology to track and quantify patterns, using what is called a retrospective correlation design.

The study built on his previous analysis of men’s World Cup soccer finals games from 1966-2010, so ultimately took in the broadcast footage of 15 men’s FIFA World Cup finals (1966-2022) and nine women’s finals (1991-2023) to quantify changes over time in specific metrics of finals games.

“The study confirms what football fans are likely to have observed, and that is that football is evolving for both the men’s and women’s game. You can see that successful approaches stick around and unsuccessful attributes tend to disappear.

 “Looking at the World Cup finals was a way to see what is bringing the most success in terms of the evolution of soccer. And both the men’s and women’s games are on a similar trajectory, at a very similar rate.

“The increased stoppage time is likely allowing for an elevated intensity of play due to the opportunity for physiological recovery during stoppages,” explains Norton.

The study looked at  game ‘structure’ using indicators such as the number and duration of play and stop periods. It also checked the distances and speed of ball movement, and passing rates relative to play time and overall ball movement.

The study found that total stoppage time, ball speed and passing rates increased significantly for both men and women, with ball speed increasing faster for women than men as speeds have converged over the last decades.

By measuring play and stop patterns within games, the study found that total play times for men and women have remained unchanged over time (at around 50 minutes per game). However, total game stoppage time — during which the clock stops — has shown progressive increases.

Women’s play percentage decreased significantly across time from an average of 65 percent to 55 percent of total game time to match current men’s finals game play percentages. And the duration of stoppages has increased for both men and women.

Passing rates continue to increase for both men and women as skills and accuracy further advance. Higher passing rates require superior decision-making skills, stealth movements, and rapid ball control.

Among key findings, Norton said, “Speed is increasingly an advantage in football, which means all teams are looking to sign up faster players, and in turn, they need to be skillful while moving fast. Players need to be able to control the ball almost instantaneously in a dense environment now, which is a change you can see over time.

“The increased speed also means players need the ability to make decisions quickly, along with being accurate and fast in passing,” he says.

Observing that success in the World Cup is linked with increased speed, and speed skill, means teams are likely to focus their talent development on players with these attributes.

“Similarly, training and development will evolve to look at how to support the higher physical demands on players, by ensuring energy supply, and strategies to prevent fatigue and injury,” says Prof. Norton.

“If these trends continue, pace, power, rapid decision-making and the ability to pass the ball precisely at high speed will become even more important,” he says.

This is the first study that has measured Women’s World Cup soccer finals, and the evolution of the game has not been documented across this period.

“There has been significant underrepresentation of female athletes in sports science and medicine publications in most sports. One of the interesting findings of this study is that both games are on the same trajectory.

“The professionalisation of women’s soccer has meant women are playing full-time, and the speed and style of the game is now resembling the speed and style of the men’s game, showing that the model is successful, otherwise the teams wouldn’t continue on that pathway,” he says.

The study is based on 15 men’s games played over 56 years and 9 women’s games over 32 years. And although the World Cup finals represent competition at the pinnacle of soccer performance, it may not be representative of soccer evolution in general. Games can also vary depending on contexts such as weather conditions, team strategies such as time wasting, refereeing style, score-line, injury and substitution use.

Norton stated that modern games are all about playing in very close, high-density environments where players need to think quickly to skillfully move the ball through that traffic.

As the game evolves, the skills of stars like Lionel Messi and Sam Kerr will become a benchmark rather than an exception.

“Playing at such intensity every game takes its toll on the body and is associated with higher injury incidence. Managing players through appropriate training loads, recovery strategies and rehabilitation programs will become even more critical,” says Norton.