As controversies trail the results of the just concluded Edo gubernatorial polls, Morenike Taire caught up with Cynthia Mbamalu, Executive Director of YIAGA Africa to discuss how to improve election in Nigeria. Excerpts of ensuing chat: 

YIAGA has become one of the most credible sources of election observation in Nigeria today. Why is this the case?

YIAGA Africa, for its election observation relies on data. That is our watch line. We are beholden to none and we are for all Nigerians. Because we rely on data we are very careful how we observe the process, so we deploy a methodology called the process and result verification for transparency PRVT. It used to be called PVT. Using statistical principles, it randomly samples polling units, recruits observers from these polling units and deploys them to observe the process on Election Day.

PRVT uses statistics and technology. These observers that are trained send in reports from their polling units from arrival of officials to the posting of results. They send in the reports using their phones via coded sms, coded because they are alpha numeric, which are alphabets and numbers via coded sms to YIAGA Africa’s database which is usually in our data centre. Because of the technology aspect, the technology allows us to quickly analyse the data and then we can share findings.

We are one of the groups that deploy the most number of observers and that is because with the PRVT we don’t determine where we go to, the sample tells us. For Edo we had a sample size of 300 polling units across the 18 LGAs in the state. 300 hundred observers were deployed and they send reports from the opening of polls to the counting and announcement of results at the polling unit.

PRVT relies on results from the polling units as announced by the polling units. YIAGA Africa in its work has remained non partisan and objective, independent and professional.  In every election we give our assessment of the election from an objective, non partisan point of view and we speak to our data consistently.  That way the organisation has become a reference point on elections because when you read the details of the statement you can tell that this organisation has done a thorough job and is providing information that is not partisan. Beyond election observation YIAGA Africa engages the electoral process using the electoral circle approach so from the pre election space we also deploy long term observers who observe the campaign periods, election related activities including INEC preoperative activities and provide reports. We also do post election audit and electoral reform engagement because our findings usually inform our recommendations.  We have consistently engaged the electoral process in such a way that promotes in building, not destroying.  We believe in highlighting issues, preferring solutions because in the end our ultimate goal is to promote electoral integrity.

 There has been a lot said about malpractices after the announcement of last weekend’s gubernatorial elections in Edo. How much of it is myth and how much is reality?

 Our general assessment was that the Efo governorship election failed the integrity test. For us one of the important tests to assess the election was the integrity test, looking especially at the role of INEC as the election management body in this election. There are several things to consider in an integrity test like application of the guidelines as it relates to accreditation, voting and counting and collation of results. 

The other part is application of the rules when it came to over voting and even cancellation of ballots. The other question was around the process to do with logistics, professionalism of the personnel deployed. Our assessment was based on different factors.  As I mentioned we deployed observers to 300 sample polling units. We believe results from the polling units are in their purest forms and most times manipulations when they want to happen usually happen during the collation process.  YIAGA and other partners as at Sunday had issued a statement raising concerns around the collation process and calling on INEC to specifically investigate the reports of the disruption of the results collation Ipoboka, Etsakor West, Igor and Oredo LGs. When the process is disrupted it also means several decisions can be taken arbitrarily but when INEC announced these results we also observed inconsistencies in our results. The official results as announced by the electoral commission for the All Progressives Congress, APC in Oredo and Igor LGAs fell outside our PRVT estimate and the result announced for People’s Democratic Party, PDP, for Esan West LGA fell outside our estimate. So also the result for Labour Party in Oredo LGA fell outside our PRVT estimate.

For us once they are inconsistencies it raises questions around credibility and because elections have to be treated from a holistic point of view, every process interconnected and are interdependent on the other. It means we can’t verify the outcomes.  While the voting process was peaceful the major challenge that was observed is based on our reports we had thugs who were intimidating officials to bypass the BVAS but then we also had the general issue of vote buying  and the least amount of money was 10 thousand naira.

 In your informed opinion, what could have been done better?

On Sunday the 22nd of September,  a statement was released by YIAGA Africa and other observer groups in the state calling on INEC, because of the inconsistencies observed,  that the electoral commission can activate its powers under Section 65 of the Electoral Act which gives INEC power to review results that are declared involuntary or under duress or results that are not declared in line with the Electoral Act or INEC guidelines for elections. A better approach would have been to run its own independent analysis and give findings.  For elections management bodies In our case INEC, have a role to promise transparency. If there are questions, objections, disruptions of collation centres that may have impacted on the transparency of that process, investigate and review. It also amplifies what we recommended in our post election statement. 

The other thing that could be done better is within the powers of the political parties.  They are becoming a threat to our democracy. If they let the system work on its own the process would be credible.  They should desist from manipulating and attempting to rig elections,  buying notes and deploying money to undermine the credibility of the process. If political parties play fair the process would not have all these challenges we are currently observing.

There was a glaring absence of youth representation in the candidacy of the polls, with only one female candidate.  Is this really a problem?

Democracy is all about participation, representation and inclusion beyond other freedoms.  However one of the things we see consistently is the exclusion of women and youth in our political processes and I do believe that this is a problem. If the younger ones are not part of the decision making processes it means we are not running a democracy that will outlive the current generation. Nigeria has a large youth population and a population of women that’s almost half the population and yet these populations are excluded from electoral representation, it becomes a problem to achieving democratic consolidation.  

For Edo we had just one female candidate and she was not among the top 3 contenders.  It throws a bigger question to those parties engaging in elections in Nigeria.  The bulk of the work is actually at their doorstep because until patties create spaces to include women and safe spaces we are going to keep struggling with the absence of youth and near absence of women in governance.

Continues online

There’s a disturbing lack of confidence in the nation’s umpire, INEC. How can this important body redeem itself?

This growing level of mistrust and lack of confidence exists within the context of general mistrust between citizens and the government and we have a major trust deficit here. A lot of people have lost faith not only in democracy but in our government institutions and INEC has taken the hit a lot more because INEC is one of the institutions that a larger percentage of people interact with when it comes to our political system because we have elections every 4 years and almost every year in different states of you think about the bye elections and off cycle elections. 

For the electoral commission, they can invest in active, proactive communication,  intentional communication and diversity communication in such a way that before issues emerge the electoral commission is ready and willing to speak about it at different levels not only on the national level.

Engaging with stakeholders,   providing information. For elections, timeliness and the completeness of information are key factors in how citizens assess the transparency of elections. Second is the ability to clean up a system through introducing measures to build capacity of its staff, ensure that people deployed are those with requisite capacity, and introduce oversight measures to ensure staff is not partisan in their words and deeds.

Every staff of the commission is an image maker. When staff engages in undermining the electoral process, those officials are properly disciplined and disciplinary measures are made public.

Beyond the electoral commission is our system of appointment into INEC at the level of the presidency and National Assembly. Our constitution is clear that appointees into the electoral commission ought to be people of integrity and non partisan. 

In every appointment the president with the confirmation of the Senate must first ensure that only individuals with good character, high integrity and non partisan ought to be presented for nomination on the national and state levels. It’s a comprehensive approach.  Perception is everything.  If people question the system they will not trust the outcome and sadly, it’s only INEC that can build trust in itself.

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