By Dr Dele Sobowale

“To know that which before us lies in daily life is the prime wisdom. What is more is fume. John Milton, 1608-1674.

VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 275.

For the last three years, 2022, 2023 and 2024, the Weekend Editor has asked me to write an article on the last Saturday of December forecasting what the coming year would hold for Nigeria. To the best of my knowledge, no columnist has ever been saddled with that sort of assignment before now.

Nigerian journalism has always been about reporting, analysing and drawing conclusions from both. Predictions have been left mostly to a few religious leaders – Imams and Prophets. This was entirely new territory; and, to be candid, it was frightening at first. But, by December 2022 when the first article was written, I have already made several predictions on a number of subjects since 1987 which turned out to be true. Don’t get me wrong. I am not claiming to have been always correct in the projections, But, my predictions have come true more than 70 per cent of the time.

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That record was perhaps what prompted the Editor to make the unusual request. It has been an interesting challenge – made partly easier by a full year course I undertook in the United States on Futurology or the science of reading the future before it arrives.

Although, it is strictly not part of the review of my forecasts for 2024, it is certainly pertinent to mention that when the Ukraine-Russia War started on February 24, 2022, the Editor asked me to write an article on the war about to begin with overwhelming Russian forces mounted on Ukraine’s borders. The three-part article ended by predicting that Russia should be prepared for a long war of attrition – instead of an easy walk over. The war continues till tomorrow.

More pertinent to Nigerians was the prediction made in 2022 for 2023. Nigerians were first warned by me that exchange rate will reach N1000/US$1 last year. It actually went beyond. I already have an idea what 2025 will look like.

Last December, in continuation of the annual series, the predictions for 2024 started with the opening quotation. Throughout, the word scarcity was repeated several times. Today, even President Tinubu, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, the Ministers of Finance, Petroleum, Agriculture, Health and Labour cannot possibly deny that scarcity exists. Even if they do, Nigerians daily feel the lash of the folly of their leaders.

Because this half-year review is only a summary, attention will be drawn to only a few specific matters – exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, manufacturing and food supply. Below, please read the forecasts and decide for yourself how accurate they have turned out to be compared with what the Federal Government projected in its budget – which has now been amended in response to realities which were not allowed to intrude into the fallacies that were presented as 2024 Budget.

Finally, it is important for readers to understand that the forecasts are not religious prophecies; each one is based on personal economic, social and political models used to determine what to expect in a particular situation.